
Week 3 of any National Football League season is interesting.
Injuries to key players usually are starting to mount, although this year that seems even more prevalent than usual. Some players are beginning to separate themselves as elite, while others are disappointing. And some early surprises are on the verge of becoming high-tier options, but are we really sure that we can trust them at that level or that their over-inflated salaries are worth the risk?
Diontae Johnson was a popular preseason pick to have a bounce-back season after disappointing in Pittsburgh last year. His name was everywhere as "experts" pointed out his separation numbers, route running and other advanced statistics. Those same people forgot who Carolina was starting at quarterback and that they couldn't block you or me up front.
Great players become elite when they play with good QBs and offensive lines. Great players become non-options when they aren't surrounded with those luxuries.
This week, with Andy Dalton taking over at QB for the Panthers, Johnson has surfaced as a popular waiver pickup and DFS pick.
Go for it.
Dalton is on the downside of his career with plenty of experience, and the offense should run better with him at the helm, but the same offensive line is in place. They likely will try to establish the run and get the ball out of his hands quickly.
Chuba Hubbard seems like a good Flex volume option with this gameplan. The only thing really working in Johnson's favor is a possible game script in which the Panthers fall behind early and Dalton has to drop back 50 times. Are we convinced the Las Vegas Raiders and grind-it-out head coach Antonio Pierce are built to put any professional team in that type of hole.
We will take a pass on Mr. Johnson.
When receivers start getting points for separation and route running let us know and we will be happy to plug him in. He's not a terrible Flex play in full-season fantasy if you have a key injury at WR or a bargain Flex play in a lineup or two so you can pay up at other spots. But don't count on him to carry your team. Not yet, anyway. If he proves something this week, however, we'd be more than happy to consider him going forward.
Good luck if you go that route.
Getting back to the strong offensive line and good QB equation - also throw in a really creative offensive mind on the sidelines calling the plays - we turn our attention to a player like Jauan Jennings in San Francisco. With Deebo Sameul out for a few weeks, Jennings is going to move into the No. 2 WR spot there, and in the past when he's done that his production has risen to a level that suggests he should find a home in DFS and full-season lineups this week.
Hopefully many of you were proactive and grabbed him for your full-season teams. If not, you have a chance to make up for that today.
EVERYONE, and I mean everyone, in the fantasy world is all over Brandon Aiyuk this week. As of yet Aiyuk still hasn't quite rounded into form after a long preseason holdout, but he should be getting closer this week. History has proven that his usage goes through the roof when Deebo is on the sidelines, so he should see high volume and is a strong play in some of our DFS lineups.
This week, though, Aiyuk may be the high-floor guy, while Jennings is the upside guy in an offense that is missing its top running back, top wide receiver and top tight end. Even when he's the No. 2 guy Jennings is on the field a ton because of his excellent blocking ability, so he's an invaluable part of the offense. Coaches and teammates love to reward players like him when they finally get their opportunity to shine.
Jennings will see plenty of targets and run a ton of routes today. He's a top value play at WR or Flex against a bad Rams' secondary. And as far as value is concerned, with so many weapons out, Jordan Mason should be in for a high-volume extremely productive afternoon
Another popular bargain player this week is going to be Texans running back Cam Akers. Again, Akers would have been a tremendous waiver pickup when it was first reported that Joe Mixon was nicked. Hopefully many of you jumped on that. As for today, every fantasy write-up we've seen has listed him as a top play. It's for good reason.
While for big-money tournament DFS contests we like to go against the grain and figure out the high-ceiling guys who have the best opportunity to put up big numbers, in cash lineups we prefer the high-volume, high-floor players who will almost guarantee that we reach a set minimum point level. Sometimes a player is a good fit for both.
That is Akers this week.
Texans running backs have been proven to be plug and play the past two seasons, and although Akers has disappointed at previous stops, Houston's zone running scheme and strong offensive line has allowed similar players to excel in the past. Joe Mixon was off to a good start this year for Houston, and Akers certainly has the talent to come right in and put up solid fantasy numbers.
Even if he is highly owned in many tournament DFS contests, Akers is a strong play as both a floor and upside guy who is going to see plenty of volume and snaps. At his bargain price of $4,000 on FanDuel, he doesn't need to do much to exceed his value. At that point, finishing in the cash becomes a matter of choosing the right Tier 1-level players to pay up for, and that's what he hope to help you with below.
Obviously, when we select players like Akers and Jennings, which elite players we surround them with becomes critical. It's easy to find some consensus rankings or compare the rankings on multiple fantasy websites and just pick the players who are ranked highest and fit underneath the salary cap. That's what most people will do. You're here, because you aren't most people. You want to win and are looking for an edge.
It's easy to simply select the top names on the quarterback ratings lists every week such as Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Occasionally, one of those guys will go off and literally win us money. Their teams are really good, though, so other times they don't live up to their high price tags because their teams are ahead and spend part of the game running out the clock. Or they blow a team out and get to rest for part of the game. Most weeks, they will put up solid-to-great numbers, but there are many lesser quarterbacks who will put up similar or higher numbers at much lower prices because of favorable matchups or game scripts.
Finding those quarterbacks allows us to once again build a roster full of top-tier players at the other positions. Saving a few hundred or even $1,000 dollars at QB can help us build a lucrative roster. It's very rare that we want to pay the absolute highest price for a QB.
This week, a player like Kyler Murray, who is finally healthy and has been playing well so far is in a game that has a high projected-points total and is likely to be playing from behind against a very good Detroit club. While not cheap at $8,300, he's $500 less than Lamar Jackson, $400. below Mahomes and $200 less than Hurts. He's a dual-threat QB who scores with his arms and legs and should have a favorable game script and matchup.
That is the perfect combination we look for. He's almost sure to at least come close to or exceed the production of the higher-priced players, and the few hundred bucks we save there could win us real money.
We would consider including Murray as a core player in almost every lineup along with Akers and then building around them with the best players our money can buy. There are other solid QB options this week for even less money - and Lamar and Hurts are perfectly fine players to select - but Murray fits what we are looking for to a tee and we will be all over him.
Here is the rest of our recommended NFL DFS player list for Week 3. Keep in mind that our selections are based on FanDuel pricing for the Sunday Main Slate.
Core Top-Tier Value Quarterback
Kyler Murray - $8,000
Tier 1 Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts - $8,500
Lamar Jackson - $8,800
Top-Value Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield - $7,700
Derek Carr - $7,900
Jared Goff - $7,500
Deshaun Watson - $7,300
Core Top-Value Running Back
Cam Akers - $4,000
High Volume Value Running Back
Zach Charbonnet - $6,700
Top-Tier Value Running Backs
De'Von Achane - $7,700
Derrick Henry - $7,800
Top-Tier Running Volume Running Back
Alvin Kamara - $8,400
Jordan Mason - $8,300
Value Running Backs
James Conner - $7,400
David Montgomery - $7,100
Jahmyr Gibbs - $7,900
Josh Jacobs - $7,300
Tony Pollard - $6,800
Jerome Ford - $6,500
Super Value Running Back
Chuba Hubbard - $5,800
Core High Volume & Value Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin - $6,600
Brandon Aiyuk - $6,500
Top-Tier Wide Receivers
Cee Dee Lamb - $9,300
Amon-Ra St. Brown - $9,100
Justin Jefferson - $9,200
Pivot High Value Wide Receivers
Jauan Jennings - $6,200
Jameson Williams - $6,300
Value Volume Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith - $8,000
Davante Adams - $7,800
Chris Olave - $6,700
Nico Collins - $7,600
Top Value Wide Receivers
Jameson Williams - $6,300
DJ Moore - $6,500
Marvin Harrison Jr. $7,500
Rashee Rice - $7,300
Calvin Ridley - $6,400
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - $6,100
Amari Cooper - $6,000
Super Value Wide Receivers
Jayden Reed - $5,300
Josh Downs - $5,500
DeAndrew Hopkins - $5,400
Value Higher-Tier Tight Ends
Trey McBride - $6,800
Kyle Pitts - $6,200
Brock Bowers - $6,300
Value Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson - $5,400
Isaiah Likely - $5,600
Bargain Tight Ends
Eric Saubert - $4,000
Jonnu Smith - $5,000
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