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MLB All-Star Pick 8/27

Scott L.


By S. Lowe - SL Sports Staff

Our Major League Baseball Superstar (70% win probability and higher) and All-Star (60% and up) picks have been on fire lately. In fact, we've had 10-straight winners combined at both levels.


The major reason for the recent success is that our model is extremely selective. Once the algorithm filters through all the statistics that go into determining the win probabilities for every game, each potential selection is subjected to a strict set of rules that are intended to raise red flags that might reduce the probability or make the selection more risky than what we feel comfortable recommending.


Then our staff goes through each game individually to make sure there isn't some bit of information or some circumstance that might have been missed when the numbers were calculated. It would be easy for us to just give out any of the higher-probability picks that our algorithm spits out as raw percentages and pray that they come through for you, but we genuinely care about your success and want to do everything in our power to eliminate as much risk as possible.


Of course, when it comes to sports betting you never can eliminate all the risk. There are no "locks of the day" or "locks of the year," and that's an important fact to remember. Otherwise, there would be no reason to play the games.


So, not every team with a 60% to 70% win probability ends up being a selection that we recommend to our customers and followers. But our picks have been so hot that even though we weren't able to recommend our two highest-rated picks last night - the Yankees and Tigers - because of red flags that were raised as we went through our process (yeah, we know the White Sox stink, but Detroit's pitcher was making his major-league debut and had a minor-league ERA over 7.00) both of those teams ended up winning.

Thus, when we have selections that are close to being recommended picks, we have no problem letting you know about those and explaining why we wouldn't bet them. We will often break those games down for you and point out the red flags that made us turn them down. They usually still are pretty solid picks, and you are always welcome to bet them at your own risk. Just don't come looking for us if they don't win!


Tonight, we do have an All-Star Selection. Remember that an All-Star selection has a 60% or better win probability according to our algorithm and passes all the other criteria we use to determine if it's a pick we want to release.



MLB All-Star Selection for 8/27

San Diego Padres -142 at St. Louis Cardinals 64% win probability

Dylan Cease 12-10 (16-11 team record in his starts), 3.43 ERA, 1.047 WHIP

vs. Miles Mikolas 8-10 (13-13), 5.19, 1.257


One of the first things we look at this time of year when our model spits out an MLB pick is whether the game has meaning for either or both teams. This game means everything to the Padres, who are holding on to the second National League wildcard spot at the moment and are just a game behind Arizona. San Diego also still has an outside shot at catching Los Angeles for first place in the NL West; they trail the Dodgers by 4.0 games. All three of those NL West teams have been playing good baseball lately, with both LA and Arizona going 7-3 in their last 10 and the Padres posting a 6-4 mark over the same span.


St. Louis is out of the running in the NL Central, 10.5 games behind Milwaukee, and the Cardinals are 6.0 games out of the final wildcard position. They are not eliminated, but their hopes are slipping away daily.


That makes the game important for both teams; both need a win and are under a similar amount of pressure. Managers should be playing to win and not experimenting with lineups or giving unproven players opportunities. That means our numbers are as accurate as they can possibly be.


Tonight is a starting pitching mismatch, with Dylan Cease facing journeyman Miles Mikolas. Cease has been a model of consistency since a somewhat slow start, compiling an ERA of 2.35 in July and 3.50 in August. His season ERA sits at 3.43, and his advanced stats actually have been even better than that.

Mikolas has a 6.41 ERA in August, bringing his season number to 5.19 despite a respectable 1.26 WHIP. His advanced statistics have been better than that all year, which often means regression is around the corner, but that simply hasn't materialized. Even though the advanced numbers are better than his ERA, his xERA of 4.37 and xFIP of 4.14 are still much worse than Cease's. Mikolas did have a strong start his last time out, allowing no runs on two hits in 6 innings vs. Milwaukee, but prior to that he ha allowed 14 earned runs over his previous 13.2 innings and he has struggled to find any consistent success this season.


In addition, San Diego has a better and deeper bullpen following the recent acquisition of lefty closer Tanner Scott. The Padres pen is a little tired entering tonight's contest, but the expectation is that San Diego's offense, which has MLB's best average against left-handed pitchers, and Cease will be too much for Mikolas and the Cardinals to handle.



Close but No Cigar: Giants vs. Brewers over 8

Our model has the Giants-Brewers game at a 61% probability to go under the posted total of 8.0. San Francisco starter Logan Webb's numbers are much worse on the road vs. his home numbers, so that raised a red flag for us as did Milwaukee's success as a team vs. right-handed pitching and its top-10 offense that has averaged 7.67 runs in the last three games.


This one just missed the cut, so if you choose to bet it do so at your own risk!



Recent MLB Superstar Pick Results

8/24 Atlanta -166 WIN (67%)

8/19 Kansas City - 240 WIN (70%)

8/16 NY Mets -270 WIN (70%)


Recent MLB All-Star Pick Results

8/25 Los Angeles -225 (67%) WIN

8/20 Arizona -130 WIN

8/20 Kansas City -120 WIN

8/20 San Francisco -1.5 (-118) WIN

8/19 Kansas City - 1.5 (-125) WIN

8/18 Seattle -187 WIN

8/17 San Diego -196 WIN (67%)

8/16 NY Mets -1.5 (-122) WIN







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