Last night was exactly what sports fans needed: something to take their minds off the end of the football season and a disappointing Super Bowl.
Tuesday night provided us with the first outstanding mid-week slate of the college basketball season's home stretch. Believe it or not, we are slightly more than a month from two of the best days of the year - the first round of the NCAA Tournament - and last night's matchups and action helped us start to wash away the bitter taste from the end of the football season.
Kentucky continues to suffer injuries, but somehow the Wildcats knocked off Tennessee, our SL Sports sixth-ranked team, for the second time this season. It remains to be seen if Kentucky's level of play is sustainable given the team's health and its recent performance, but the Wildcats showed plenty of resilience in holding serve on their home court.
Not only did our No. 6 team go down, but so did No. 7 Purdue and 11th-ranked Michigan State in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers were underdogs in Ann Arbor vs. No. 15 Michigan, and the game played out just as the numbers indicated. The Wolverines persevered for a two-point victory to move into first place in the conference and stay ahead of St. John's and just behind Texas A&M in our Power 75 rankings.
Most everyone who needed to take care of business otherwise did so, however, as indicated by our posted money-line parlay options, which were a perfect 13-0 on the evening.
Bubble-team San Diego State, one of our first four out of the NCAA Tournament as of today, overcame a sluggish home performance to beat inconsistent San Jose State team, 69-66, which didn't do much to improve their postseason positioning. The Aztecs are 51st in our power rankings, but we feel that based on other factors they are much closer to earning an NCAA bid than that might indicate.
SDSU's conference-rival Utah State is three spots lower in our Power 75, but we have them getting the last at-large spot at the moment for similar reasons. We currently have red-hot New Mexico penciled in as the conference champion, but any of those three teams could earn the automatic berth by winning the league tournament. Utah State mostly manhandled a pretty good Colorado State team at home Tuesday in a game that was not anywhere near as close as the final score indicated.
If either Utah State or San Diego State earns the automatic bid, it is entirely possible that the Mountain West could land three teams in the dance, especially considering how well the selection committee treated the league a year ago. And as one of the most competitive and balanced conferences in the country, the Mountain West very well could produce a surprise tournament champion if Colorado State, Nevada or UNLV catches fire at the right time. New Mexico needs to keep it rolling tonight at home against an up-and-down Wyoming side that struggles away from Laramie. The Lobos are favored by 15.5 points at The Pit.
Florida put on a show Tuesday as a surprising underdog and dismantled an inconsistent Mississippi State team on the road, while Auburn posted a workmanlike win at Vanderbilt, Texas A&M rallied to blow out Georgia on the road, while Alabama embarrassed Texas in Austin. Based on our numbers, those results left Auburn and Alabama securely among the current No. 1 tourney seeds along with Houston and Duke, with Florida and Tennessee barely on the outside looking in.
Michigan State continued to float back to Earth with an unthinkable loss to what had been a free-falling Indiana squad. The Spartans' numbers haven't caught up with their performance quite yet, though, but even though they are power ranked among our top 11, we have dropped them to a No. 4 seed. They are joined on the four line by another Big Ten team that has dropped rapidly, Illinois, as well as surging conference-rival Michigan and Kentucky.
Purdue clings to its second seed thanks to an earlier loss by Arizona and Iowa State's inconsistent play of late, but the Boilers have watched Texas A&M surge from No. 14 in our rankings to the No. 2 seed line and could be passed by others with another loss.
Tonight, we are in store for another strong slate of games as No. 16 St. John's continues its difficult BIG EAST road swing at Villanova, hoping not to let down after last week's road victory at 27th-ranked UConn and home win vs. No. 20 Marquette. The Johnnies are now 12-1 and alone in first place in league play, but disappointing Villanova has shown signs of life lately and at No. 48 is just outside of our tournament field.
It's a huge one at home for the Wildcats, and St. John's is in a tough spot, but a riled up Super Bowl-champion Philadelphia crowd is sure to make things very challenging for the Red Storm. St. John's is a 2.5-point road favorite, but our projections have them winning by five or more. However, there are enough concerns given Nova's desperation and the Johnnies' recent schedule that the Red Storm probably won't make the cut as a recommended pick.
A surprising and possibly undervalued Missouri team checks in at No. 23 in our Power 75, and the Tigers host a desperate Oklahoma squad that is ranked 46th and one of our last four out of the tourney right now. The Sooners started strong, but have regressed substantially playing in the nation's best conference. Oklahoma has lost two straight, albeit against a parir of top five teams, but the Sooners are just 3-7 in their past 10. They are 9.5-point underdogs at Mizzou, but our numbers indicate that spread should be at least a point closer than that.
Unlike Oklahoma, Wake Forest has been surging of late, winning three straight as the Demon Deacons host Florida State and their lame-duck coach as 6.5-point favorites tonight. Wake is close to cracking the NCAA Tournament field and cannot afford a loss to a much weaker team.
First-place VCU, which we also have in our field whether they end up winning the Atlantic 10 or not, looks to solidify its status as an at-large team at undervalued George Washington tonight. The Rams are favored by 8.5 at the Smith Center, but we think that the number more realistically is closer to 7.8. It seems as the market might agree with that assessment, given that the line opened today at 9.5.
No. 31 Ohio State has ascended from being a bubble team to a solid bet to earn an at-large bid with mostly solid play of late. But after a big home win vs. No. 18 Maryland last week, the Buckeyes let down at Nebraska, one of our last teams in, over the weekend and has dropped two of their last three following a three-game winning streak. That makes their home matchup vs. Washington as 10.5-point favorites tonight a little more important than it probably needed to be. We have OSU as 9.5 points better than the Huskies.
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through that stringent set of parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so in our goal to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide potential parlay options that are strong bets that don't quite make the cut for us as well as other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 56.5 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 2/12
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
N/A
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 2/12
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Mississippi money line -195 at South Carolina - WIN
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 2/12
N/A
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 227-77 (74.7%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0 and for Feb. 11-12 combined they are 24-1.
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 2/12
Mississippi - WIN
Temple - LOSS
TCU - WIN
Louisville - WIN
Wichita State - WIN
Bradley - WIN
Dayton - WIN
Missouri - WIN
Oakland - WIN
UNC Asheville - WIN
NBA:
Sacramento Kings - WIN
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
700-538-17 (56.5%)
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Last 7 days: 62-46-2 (57.4%)
Last 27 days: 257-185-8 (58.1%)
Last 61 days: 548-408-15 (57.6%)
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 2/12
Canisius +8.5 at Niagara - LOSS
Iowa +6.5 at Rutgers - WIN
La Salle +13.5 at St. Joseph's - WIN
TCU -5.5 vs. Oklahoma State - LOSS
Mississippi -4 at South Carolina - PUSH
Robert Morris +5 at Cleveland State - WIN
Wofford -11.5 at The Citadel - LOSS
George Washington +9 vs. VCU - WIN
Florida State +7.5 at Wake Forest - WIN
Chattanooga +5.5 at Samford - WIN
Southern Mississippi +15.5 at Arkansas State = LOSS
Drake money line -135 at Illinois State - WIN
Oklahoma +9.5 at Missouri - LOSS
Arizona State +16.5 at Texas Tech - WIN
UNC Asheville -9.5 at USC Upstate - LOSS
Boston University +6 at Bucknell - LOSS
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