We have another large slate of NCAA college hoops games tonight, with a few interesting matchups that could impact the NCAA Tournament status of some teams and some showdowns between nhighly ranked teams looking to improve their positioning to the postseason.
Something else to remember for this year is that because of conference realignment and expansion, not every team is guaranteed to qualify for ts conference tournament, so bottom-feeding teams that might normally be playing out the string and resting up for their shot at glory in the postseason now might have to fight their way into the league tourneys. More desperate teams will make for more exciting games and possible upsets when a bottom team playing for its postseason life takes on a middle-of-the-pack team that basically already knows its fate.
We will dig more into those scenarios in the days and weeks ahead as there could be some under-the-radar edges that many people miss.
As for tonight, some of the important and interesting matchups are below:
Vanderbilt +4.5 at Kentucky 7 p.m. EST
Vandy is hanging on by a thread as a tournament team, according to our bracketology, while Kentucky is looking to live up to its metrics and prove that it belongs as a top-three seed. We have the banged-up Wildcats as a No. 4 at the moment.
Cincinnati +3.5/2.5 at West Virginia 7 p.m. EST
The Bearcats are on the outside looking in and simply cannot afford a loss, while WVU is looking to solidify its hold on a tournament spot as one of our last four in at this point. It's a must-win for both teams in what should be a raucous environment in Morgantown, and these teams are evenly matched. Too close to call based on our numbers
NC State +10.5/10 at North Carolina 7 p.m. EST
It's a huge rivalry game in Chapel Hill, and the Tar Heels simply can't afford any losses, other than maybe to Duke, before the ACC Tournament. UNC is one of our first four out. This is too many points in a rivalry game, but we don't trust either team enough for one to even have an edge.
SMU -1.5 at Notre Dame 7 p.m. EST
SMU is also one of the first four out and is in the exact same boat as UNC, needing to continue winning and to make a run in the ACC Tourney. We lean toward SMU on the money line here, but it's not a recommended pick.
Gonzaga -11.5/12.5 at Washington State
There are whispers that the Zags could end up on the bubble if they don't continue to win and at least get to the West Coast Conference finals. We have them as an eight seed, but they certainly can't afford any setbacks in a weak conference. Washington State isn't good, but they have a smart coach and high IQ players. The atmosphere will be nuts in Pullman. This is a lot of points; edge to the Cougars to cover, but definitely not a recommended pick as Gonzaga is capable of winning by 30 if the shots are falling.
Arkansas +15.5/16 at Auburn
Auburn is the top overall seed by leaps and bounds at the moment, but has appeared to be plodding along in cruise control in recent outings. Arkansas has been playing much better of late; the players seem to be buying into John Calipari's style, and they are scrappy. Arkansas is one of the final four byes for us right now, and a win here would probably come close to sealing the deal for them assuming they win the games they should down the stretch. We expect this one to be competitive.
New Mexico +5.5 at Boise State
Boise is oh so close to being in the field, according to our numbers, and a win here would go a long way toward pushing them into the mix. We have a hot New Mexico team safely in as a No. 9 seed, but for some reason this line has ballooned from 2.5 to 5.5. We can only assume injury or illness has befallen the Lobos, so we would stay away.
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 2/19
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
N/A
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 2/19
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
UAB money line -175 at Rice (65% win probability)
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 2/19
N/A
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 263-90 (74.5%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2.
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 2/19
Mercer - WIN
Kentucky - WIN
UAB - WIN
St. Thomas - LOSS
Florida State - WIN
Winthrop - WIN
Colgate - WIN
Boston University - WIN
NBA:
N/A
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 2/19
UMass +16.5 at VCU - LOSS
Nebraska money line -125 at Penn State - LOSS
Evansville +7.5 at Indiana State - WIN
West Virginia money line -145 vs. Cincinnati - WIN
Fordham +7 at Duquesne - LOSS
SMU money line -125 at Notre Dame - WIN
Furman +7.5 at Samford - LOSS
Tulsa +13.5 at North Texas - LOSS
South Alabama +7.5 at Arkansas State - WIN
Bradley money line -115 at Illinois State - LOSS
Omaha +3.5 at UMKC - WIN
Oregon money line -125 at Iowa - WIN
Washington State +12.5 vs. Gonzaga - LOSS
Arkansas +16.5 at Auburn - WIN
American +1.5 at Army - LOSS
Winthrop -3.5 at Presbyterian - WIN
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
756-576-19 (56.8%)
Feb. 19 Record: 8-8
Feb. 18 Record: 3-6
Feb. 17 Record: 3-1
Feb. 16 Record: 5-2
Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2
Feb. 14 Record: 5-2
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Last 7 days: 56-38-2 (59.6%)
Last 34 days: 313-223-10 (58.4%)
Last 68 days: 611-440-17 (58.1%)
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