It wasn't a bad start to our college basketball "postseason" Wednesday, as our betting edges posted an 8-5 record and we offered three bonus picks that went 2-1.
Initially we offered two bonus selections, but after Rhode Island decided they didn't want to play more basketball this season, we felt strongly enough about Quinnipiac as a pick to re-use them with Merrimack while also pairing American with Grand Canyon to get back on the plus side.
The Quinnipiac game was a grind, but the other three were fairly easy wins. We also stayed on course with our parlay options, going 8-2. There may be fewer recommended Superstar and All-Star picks going forward into the NCAA Tournament since the lines become more accurate daily and the matchups become even tighter, but at the very least we hope to provide a bonus pick or two daily until the NCAA championship game in April.
We have another sweet and juicy mid-week slate of NCAA basketball on tap today as the the power conferences move into the second round and quarterfinals. That means more Bubble Watch Specials, too, as teams on the edge of elimination battle for their postseason lives.
Yesterday's action definitely eliminated Cincinnati from NCAA Tournament consideration. Meanwhile, Arkansas probably locked itself into a bid, North Carolina stayed alive, West Virginia moved from probably being in to definitely on the bubble, Texas is now on the edge of clinching, Ohio State may be out, Baylor should be set, Villanova hung on for dear life, SMU is still on life support, Oklahoma may have cemented its bid and Georgia should be fine but probably is nervous.
Here are today's Bubble Watch Specials, featuring teams whose tourney status remains uncertain:
SMU vs. Clemson - ACC at 9:30 p.m. EDT
Marquette vs. Xavier - BIG EAST at 2:30 p.m. EDT
Villanova vs. Creighton - BIG EAST at 9:30 p.m. EDT
Indiana vs. Oregon - Big Ten at Noon EDT
Baylor vs. Texas Tech - Big 12 at 7:00 p.m. EDT
Arkansas vs. Mississippi - SEC at 7:00 p.m. EDT
Oklahoma vs. Kentucky - SEC at 9:30 p.m. EDT
Boise State vs. San Diego State - MWC at 5:30 p.m. EDT
Nevada vs. Colorado State - MWC at 9:00 p.m. EDT
UNLV vs. Utah State - MWC at 11:30 p.m. EDT
It seems like every Mountain West game has tournament implications at this point, but the Boise-San Diego State matchup is a huge one since one of them definitely will lose. San Diego State should be firmly in with a win, but may be out with a loss if Boise has done enough to earn a bid. Two wins for Boise very well could knock SDSU out, pending what happens in other tournaments.
It would be shocking if at least a couple teams didn't wind up stealing bids; they call it March Madness for a reason.
As for SMU and Villanova, it's the same mantra as yesterday: Just keep winning, baby. And pray. While we believe that Arkansas and Oklahoma both are safely in, wins today would make them locks. A win by Xavier would give them the Quad 1 victory the Musketeers need and possibly knock knock out someone who may be in as of today. Baylor losing to likely No. 2 seed Texas Tech wouldn't be a big enough blemish, in our opinion, to jeopardize the Bears' spot in the tourney, but some folks have them on the bubble.
Automatic Qualifiers as of March 14
14 down & 17 to go
Lipscomb
High Point
UNCW
Robert Morris
Drake
St. Francis
SIUE
Wofford
Omaha
Troy
Gonzaga
American
McNeese
Montana
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 3/13
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
Cal Baptist money line -140 vs. Tarleton State (70%) - WIN
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 3/13
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
TBD
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 3/13
George Washington/Clemson money line parlay at -119 - WN
Nevada +5.5 vs. Colorado State - LOSS
Oklahoma +7.5 vs. Kentucky - WIN
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 384-138 (73.6%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2. We closed out college hoops regular season on a 21-3 run with our parlay options.
Postseason Money Line Parlay Options: 13-3
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 3/13
George Washington - WIN
Clemson - WIN
Wisconsin - WIN
Texas Tech - WIN
Cal Baptist - WIN
UC Riverside - LOSS
NBA:
TBD
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 3/13
St. Louis money line -166 vs. Duquesne - WIN
Wake Forest +6 vs. North Carolina (2.25) - LOSS
Marquette money line -140 vs. Xavier (4.89) - WIN
Villanova +6.5 vs. UConn (4.11) - LOSS
Oregon money line -135 vs. Indiana (3.35) - WIN
Iowa +11 vs. Illinois (8.62) - LOSS
Wichita State money line -170 vs. South Florida - WIN
Houston -17 vs. Colorado (18.29) - LOSS
Arizona money line -140 vs. Kansas (2.30) - WIN
Charlotte +11 vs. Florida Atlantic (9.18) - WIN
Temple money line -148 vs. Tulsa (4.13) - LOSS
East Carolina money line -175 vs. UTSA (3.91) - WIN
Arkansas +4.5 vs. Mississippi (2.88) - WIN
San Diego State +2.5 vs. Boise State (0.89) - LOSS
Nevada +5.5 vs. Colorado State (2.61) - LOSS
UNLV +8 vs. Utah State (5.68) - LOSS
Mount St. Mary's +4.5 vs. Marist - WIN
Iona money line -130 vs. Manhattan - WIN
Middle Tennessee money line -135 vs. Louisiana Tech (2.08) - WIN
Dogs of the Day
MOST LIKELY teams to pull of outright upsets (not recommended picks)
San Diego State
Nevada
Arkansas
Mount St. Mary's (winner)
Postseason College Basketball Record:
Parlay Options: 13-3 (75.0%)
Betting Edges: 19-13 (59.4%)
Bonus Picks: 4-2 (66.7%)
Last 7 Days: 60-44 (57.6%)
Last 54 days: 480-343 (58.3%)
Postseason Betting Edge Log
March 13: 11-8
March 12: 8-5
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edges
Final Regular-Season Record:
875-662-19 (56.9%)
March 9 Record: 7-7
March 8 Record: 10-6
March 7 Record: 9-5
March 6 Record: 8-8
March 5 Record: 7-5
March 4 Record: 13-6
March 3 Record: 3-1
March 2 Record: 7-3
March 1 Record: 17-14
Feb. 28 Record: 6-5
Feb. 27 Record: 4-3
Feb. 26 Record: 9-7
Feb. 25 Record: 10-6
Feb. 24 Record: 5-2
Feb. 23 Record: 6-2-1
Feb. 22 Record: 13-13
Feb. 21 Record: 5-2
Feb. 20 Record: 4-7
Feb. 19 Record: 8-8
Feb. 18 Record: 3-6
Feb. 17 Record: 3-1
Feb. 16 Record: 5-2
Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2
Feb. 14 Record: 5-2
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Final 7 days 57-38 (60.0%)
Final 52 days: 461-330 (58.3%)
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