Since Day 1 of the 2024-25 college hoops season, we've been evaluating games and point spreads, tracking results and determining which games likely have betting edges. Every night we document those contests where we feel there are edges and keep track of the results so we can have a feel for the good teams, the weak teams, the underachievers and the overachievers as our data becomes more usable.
This eventually becomes the starting point for the daily process we go through in determining which picks are recommended to the public and/or our clients. We narrow the games down to the ones that we feel might present a significant betting edge before running the numbers on those games.
After analyzing as many as 50 different statistical categories and other factors for each contest, our model proceeds to provide us with win probabilities for whichever games we run. Percentages are provided for spread bets, money-line bets and totals.
From there. we throw out any games that are below 60-percent win probability and then apply a rigorous set of rules to each contest to determine which ones meet our final criteria. Information such as injuries, rest, coaching matchups, styles of play and pace, recent form and other data points are included in this process.
Once the process is complete, hopefully we are left with a few games that become recommended picks - and perhaps one or two that narrowly miss the cut. Bets with a 60 percent or better win probability are released as All-Star Picks, while selections that carry a 70 percent or better win probability are released as Superstar Picks.
Occasionally a bet that narrowly misses the cut may be posted as a bonus pick, and there are times where we may have a pick that is so strong but with odds so short that we may pair it with an All-Star pick or bonus selection as part of a parlay.
We usually don't recommend parlays, but we realize there are times when the juice makes betting a certain side prohibitive for some people. When that happens, although we may not recommend the parlay, we at least want to help those folks have the best chance of winning if that's the direction they choose to go.
So far in our tracking of college basketball games since the season opened in early November, the games we have determined to have betting edges have posted a record of 306-238-6 (56.3 percent) That's a pretty good starting point before we even run the games through the algorithm.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 12/21
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
TBD
StatLogic Sports All-Star Pick for 12/21
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Furman money line -135 vs. Harvard (64%)- WIN
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
306-238-6 (56.3%)
Dec. 23 Record: 2-2-0
Dec. 22 Record: 12-11-0
Dec. 21 Record: 15-16-2
Dec. 20 Record: 5-4-0
Dec. 19 Record: 4-3-0
Dec. 18 Record: 22-13-0
Dec. 17 Record: 18-9-0
Dec. 16 Record: 6-5-0
Dec. 15 Record: off day
Dec. 14 Record: 17-15-2
Dec. 13 Record: 4-3
Dec. 12 Record: 5-2
Dec. 11 Record: 5-5
Stat-Logic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 12/21
Syracuse +14.5 vs. Maryland - LOSS
Rutgers -7 vs. Princeton - LOSS
St. Joseph's money line -155 vs. VA Tech - WIN
SMU -8 vs. Boston College - WIN
Georgia Tech +15 vs. Duke - LOSS
Butler +8.5 vs. UConn - WIN
Marquette money line -192 vs. Xavier - WIN
Drexel +15 vs. Penn State - WIN
Fairfield +4 vs. Monmouth - LOSS
Marshall money line -170 vs. Southern Mississippi - LOSS
Michigan State -13.5 vs. Florida Atlantic - WIN
Canisius +24.5 vs. Bradley - LOSS
Miami -16.5 vs. Mount St. Mary's - LOSS
Florida State money line -115 vs. Louisville - LOSS
Texas-Arlington +10 vs. Liberty - LOSS
Duquesne +7 vs. UC Irvine - WIN
Wake Forest +9 vs. Clemson - PUSH
Coastal Carolina +14.5 vs. Arkansas State - LOSS
UC Riverside +10 vs. UNLV - LOSS
Arizona State -9.5 vs. UMass - WIN
DePaul +7 vs. Northwestern - LOSS
Villanova +5 vs. Creighton - LOSS
Colorado State +8.5 vs. Nevada - WIN
Kentucky -8 vs. Ohio State - LOSS
Iowa money line -120 vs. Utah - WIN
Rhode Island money line -150 vs. Temple - WIN
Wichita State +1.5 vs. Kansas State - WIN
Oregon -5.5 vs. Stanford - WIN
Cal Poly SLO ML -155 vs. Omaha - LOSS
Yale +1 vs. UTEP - PUSH
Dartmouth +5 vs. Vermont - WIN
Navy -8.5 vs. Coppin State - LOSS
San Diego State -5 vs. California - WIN
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