As we mentioned at the start of the National Football League, college football and National Basketball Association seasons, it takes several weeks of current data for our proprietary algorithm to function at a level that allows us to be comfortable releasing recommended picks. That holds true for college basketball as well.
That doesn't mean that the process is just starting for us, though. In fact, it's quite the opposite.
Since Day 1 of the 2024-25 college hoops season, we've been evaluating games and point spreads, tracking results and determining which games likely have betting edges. Every night we document those contests where we feel there are edges and keep track of the results so we can have a feel for the good teams, the weak teams, the underachievers and the overachievers as our data becomes more usable.
This eventually becomes the starting point for the daily process we go through in determining which picks are recommended to the public and/or our clients. We narrow the games down to the ones that we feel might present a significant betting edge before running the numbers on those games.
After analyzing as many as 50 different statistical categories and other factors for each contest, our model proceeds to provide us with win probabilities for whichever games we run. Percentages are provided for spread bets, money-line bets and totals.
From there. we throw out any games that are below 60-percent win probability and then apply a rigorous set of rules to each contest to determine which ones meet our final criteria. Information such as injuries, rest, coaching matchups, styles of play and pace, recent form and other data points are included in this process.
Once the process is complete, hopefully we are left with a few games that become recommended picks - and perhaps one or two that narrowly miss the cut. Bets with a 60 percent or better win probability are released as All-Star Picks, while selections that carry a 70 percent or better win probability are released as Superstar Picks.
Occasionally a bet that narrowly misses the cut may be posted as a bonus pick, and there are times where we may have a pick that is so strong but with odds so short that we may pair it with an All-Star pick or bonus selection as part of a parlay.
We usually don't recommend parlays, but we realize there are times when the juice makes betting a certain side prohibitive for some people. When that happens, we although we may not recommend the parlay, we at least want to help those folks have the best chance of winning if that's the direction they choose to go.
So far in our tracking of college basketball games since the season opened six weeks ago, the games we have determined to have betting edges have posted a record of 205-160-2 (56.1 percent). That's a pretty good starting point before we even run the games through the algorithm.
Going forward as time permits, we will post our daily edges along with our recommended picks, if we have any. Those games always are bet at your own risk, but since August for college football, college basketball and the NFL, those games have proven to be winners well over 50% of the time.
We have had just a few recommended picks to date. Last night, Weber state money line -190 was a winner as was our money line parlay option with Weber State and Colorado at -103. We should have at least one recommended selection almost daily now going forward.
StatLogic Sports College Basketball Superstar Picks for Dec. 14
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability - TBD
StatLogic Sports College Basketball All-Star Picks for Dec. 14
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability - TBD
Dec. 14 College Basketball Games w/Betting Edges
DePaul -3 vs. Wichita State - WIN
Auburn -12.5 vs. Ohio State - WIN
UNC Wilmington -4.5 vs. Howard - LOSS
Purdue money line -125 vs. Texas A&M - LOSS
Xavier +8.5 vs. Cincinnati - WIN
Syracuse +1 vs. Georgetown - LOSS
NC State +15 vs. Kansas - PUSH
Youngstown State -1.5 vs. Toledo - WIN
Arizona money line -175 vs. UCLA - LOSS
Rutgers -11 vs. Seton Hall - LOSS
St. Mary's money line -145 vs. Boise State - LOSS
Western Kentucky -5 vs. Murray State - PUSH
Central Florida -10.5 vs. Tulsa - WIN
Mississippi -22 vs. Southern Mississippi - WIN
Marshall pick vs. Ohio - WIN
North Carolina -21 vs. La Salle - WIN
Oregon State money line -142 vs. UC-Irvine - WIN
Towson -2.5 vs. Duquesne - LOSS
Illinois +2 vs. Tennessee - WIN
Belmont -1.5 vs. Richmond - WIN
Detroit +16 vs. Davidson - LOSS
Colorado State +6.5 vs. VCU - LOSS
UConn +3 vs. Gonzaga - WIN
Oklahoma State +4.5 vs. Oklahoma - LOSS
Creighton +11.5 vs. Alabama - WIN
Sacramento State +6 vs. UC-Davis - LOSS
Dartmouth +11.5 vs. UMass Lowell - WIN
Bryant +1.5 vs. Fordham - LOSS
North Florida money line -125 vs. UNC Greensboro - WIN
Mississippi State -9 vs. McNeese State - LOSS
Drexel +3 vs. Albany - WIN
Mount St. Mary's money line -150 vs. Loyola MD - LOSS
Santa Clara money line -150 vs. Bradley - WIN
Butler +5 vs. Wisconsin - LOSS
Potential Money Line Parlay Partners
Consider pairing any of these with Army on the money line vs. Navy in CFB today - bet at own risk as we do not make a habit of making parlays recommended picks. Makes the juice more tolerable for those who won't do short-odds money line bets.
Florida vs. ASU - WIN
Maine vs. Canisius - WIN
Georgia vs. Grand Canyon - WIN
UNC Wilmington vs. Howard - LOSS
Western Kentucky vs. Murray State - WIN
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record: 268-202-4
57.0%
Dec. 18 Record: 22-13-0
Dec. 17 Record: 18-9-0
Dec. 16 Record: 6-5-0
Dec. 15 Record: off day
Dec. 14 Record: 17-15-2
Dec. 13 Record: 4-3
Dec. 12 Record: 5-2
Dec. 11 Record: 5-5
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