We take a look at every single college basketball on the schedule every night. By using available data and a strict filtering progress, we are able to determine which games might present betting edges for us to examine more closely.
Those edges are presented in this space, along with any recommended picks from our proprietary algorithm, several times a week. Most of them will miss the cut to be recommended selections, because we have a very stringent set of requirements that must be met for a game to be released as an All-Star or Superstar Pick.
But as we have tracked these games with edges over time, it came to our attention that they, too, are very solid picks that provide a nice ROI over the long term. So, while our reputation has been built on providing only a certain level of picks that win at a very high percentage and provide an annual ROI for our top investor clients at a rate that exceeds most - if not all - available other investment opportunities, we didn't want to ignore the results from the other selections.
Hopefully, by making some of that information available - and allowing potential customers to choose the selections they might want to use - we will be able to service a wider range of clients and help more people gamble responsibly and be profitable. The betting-edge picks we don't recommend are always "bet at your own risk," but as you can see below, the results are very solid.
After analyzing as many as 50 different statistical categories and other factors for each contest, our proprietary algorithm proceeds to provide us with win probabilities for whichever games we run. Percentages are provided for spread bets, money-line bets and totals.
From there. we throw out any games that are below 60-percent win probability and then apply a rigorous set of rules and guidelines to each contest to determine which ones meet our final criteria. Information such as injuries, rest, coaching matchups, styles of play and pace, recent form and other data points are included in this process.
Sometimes we receive more information or there is breaking news that we add back into the mix and re-run the game to ensure that we get the most accurate win probability.
Once the process is complete, hopefully we are left with a few games that become recommended picks - and perhaps one or two that narrowly miss the cut. Bets with a 60 percent or better win probability that meet all of our requirements are released as All-Star Picks, while selections that carry a 70 percent or better win probability are released as Superstar Picks.
Bets that narrowly miss the cut may be posted as a bonus picks, while the other games with smaller, less-convincing edges will appear here as well. There are times when we may have a pick that is so strong, but with odds so short, that we may pair it with an All-Star pick or bonus selection as part of a parlay.
We usually don't recommend parlays, but we realize there are times when the short odds for one of our recommended picks makes betting a certain side prohibitive for some people. When that happens, although we may not recommend the parlay, we at least want to help those folks have the best chance of winning if that's the direction they choose to take.
So far in our tracking of college basketball games since the season opened in early November, the games we have determined to have betting edges have compiled a record of 396-305-9 (56.5 percent).
That's a pretty good starting point before we even run the games through our model.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 1/4
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
TBD
StatLogic Sports All-Star Pick for 1/4
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Davidson money line -198 vs. Duquesne (69% win probability) - WIN
Drexel money line -210 at North Carolina A&T (65%)
St. Thomas money line -240 at North Dakota (66%) - WIN
While we usually don't recommend parlays, and it decreases the win probabilities, to combine picks, for those who aren't interested in laying the juice on money line bets, it often is still a strong play to parlay two of our picks together for a better payout. Do that at your own risk, however.
Potential Money Line Parlay Partners for 1/4
Mississippi vs. Georgia - WIN
Georgia Tech vs. Boston College - WIN
Charleston vs. Towson - WIN
St. Thomas at North Dakota - WIN
Drexel at North Carolina A&T - WIN
Davidson vs. Duquesne - WIN
St. Bonaventure at Fordham - WIN
Indiana State at Evansville - WIN
South Alabama vs. Georgia Southern - WIN
Louisville at Virginia - WIN
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
396-305-9 (56.5%)
Jan. 4 Record: 21-15-1
Jan. 3 Record: 5-6-0
Jan. 2 Record: 11-6-0
Jan. 1 Record: 6-4-1
Dec. 31 Record: 11-12
Dec. 30 Record: 9-7
Dec. 29 Record: 14-10
Last 7 days: 77-60-2 (56.2%)
Last 25 days: 205-156-5 (56.8%)
Stat-Logic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 1/4
Kentucky money line -165 vs. Florida - WIN
Villanova -9 vs. DePaul - WIN
Toledo money line -130 at Western Michigan - WIN
Mississippi -4.5 vs. Georgia - WIN
Georgia Tech -7 vs. Boston College - WIN
Richmond +5 at UMass - WIN
Oklahoma State +8.5 at West Virginia - LOSS
UW Green Bay +12.5 at Northern Kentucky - LOSS
Arkansas +12 at Tennessee - LOSS
Ball State +10 at Kent State - WIN
Charleston -6.5 vs. Towson - WIN
Loyola Chicago +6 at VCU - LOSS
St. Thomas -5.5 vs. North Dakota - WIN
Nebraska money line -145 vs. UCLA - WIN
South Carolina +10.5 at Mississippi State - LOSS
BYU +10 at Houston - LOSS
Drexel -4.5 at North Carolina A&T - WIN
Butler +11.5 at St. John's - WIN
Baylor +8.5 at Iowa State - LOSS
St. Bonaventure -6 at Fordham - WIN
Rhode Island money line +105 vs. George Mason - WIN
Indiana State -3.5 at Evansville - WIN
Furman money line +105 at UNC Greensboro - LOSS
Monmouth +5.5 at Delaware - LOSS
Marshall +1 vs. Troy - PUSH
San Diego +15.5 at Oregon State - LOSS
San Jose State +10.5 UNLV - WIN
Colorado +6 at Arizona State - LOSS
Florida State -9 vs. Syracuse - WIN
Pittsburgh -9 vs. Stanford - WIN
Washington State money line -135 vs. San Francisco - WIN
Youngstown State +6 at IFPW - LOSS
Texas Tech money line -142 at Utah - WIN
USC +6 vs. Michigan - LOSS
Texas +6 at Texas A&M - LOSS
Gonzaga -15.5 at Loyola Marymount - WIN
UC Riverside +9.5 at UC Irvine - LOSS
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