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StatLogic Sports Spotlight: We Stay the Course Despite Whacky Wins & Bad Beats in College Basketball

Scott L.

Updated: Jan 17



NOTE: Today's betting edges, recommended picks & parlay options can be found at the end of this article.


By Scott L. - StatLogic Sports Staff

It was another one of those nights on the hardwood Wednesday. Apparently, it's that time of year.



Last night, our only recommended pick, SMU on the money line at Virginia, won, but it was quite the roller-coaster ride. Hang on tight and keep your arms and legs inside the car, please.


First, the Mustangs seemingly played well enough to win despite hitting 2 of their first 18 shots from 3-point range. Oh, they entered the game hitting nearly 40 percent from long distance, good enough to rank second in the Atlantic Coast Conference. So, maybe they really didn't play well enough to win. Fortunately for them, UVA nearly matched that performance from 3-point range as the teams combined to shoot 5-for-38 beyond the arc at one point.


As usual, Virginia took a team that likes to play at a thoroughbred's pace and turned it into a clydesdale. SMU struggled in its half-court offense all night, and while the shooting numbers were poor, many of those were rushed shots with the shot clock winding down or were forced and contested attempts.


On the other hand, Virginia was just flat-out bad offensively and has been for several years now. The Cavaliers try to muck up their games and prey that they make enough threes to somehow win. That formula generally fails them against better teams.


You really can say that neither team played well enough to win, but regardless, somehow the Mustangs found themselves up by 7, 45-38, with about 4:30 left in the game. But if you were watching closely, you could see it unraveling for them.


There were turnovers, bad shots and just plain bad basketball. And of course, Virginia decided that it was time to actually make a few shots. The Cavaliers hit four straight from the field, including a 3-pointer by Ishan Sharma, and just like that they led, 50-45, with 31 seconds left.


Game over, right? Right?


Not yet.


It's a tale as old as time. The better team lets the weaker team hang around and a then a few bad breaks later a win turns into a loss. Somehow, despite shooting 35 percent overall and 15-percent from distance, it looked like Virginia was going to pull off the upset as a six-point underdog.


Nope. It was time for SMU to start making shots and for UVA to fall apart. BJ Edwards and Boopie Miller drilled back-to-back threes after the Mustangs had missed 16 of their first 18 long-distance tries, and suddenly the Mustangs were within 52-51.


But there were only nine seconds left.


Game over, right? Right?


Ummmmmm.


While the game wasn't totally in the bag that point, ESPN had Virginia's odds of winning at better than 90 percent as Taine Murray stepped to the line for a pair of free throws with seven seconds left. Murray is a 73-percent free throw shooter who had made his only two attempts of the evening. If he makes one shot, the Mustangs likely would try to get to the rim to tie the game and force overtime. If he makes both, SMU would need to make a 3-pointer to force OT, and in theory all UVA would have to do was foul before the Mustangs could shoot to claim the victory.


But what if he misses both? Stop it. That's not happening.


Right? Right? Murray stepped to the line and calmly bricked both shots. Timeout SMU. Four seconds left.


If you're reading this, you're more than likely a regular bettor, and as a bettor you surely know what happened next. Inbounds play. Ball goes to Boopie, and he buries the game-winning 3-pointer on the buzzer as he drifts toward the out-of-bounds line with a guy in his face.


Game over, right? Right.


Yes. Finally. But let's recap.


Both teams played like crap, but SMU appeared to have the game won up by 7 with 4:30 left. UVA, which missed 34 of its 52 shots for the game, then made four straight shots to take the lead. One of those was a 3-pointer. For the game, they missed 22 of the 26 threes they attempted.


At that point, SMU, which had shot 2-for-18 from long range and trailed by 5, hit three straight threes - and Virginia's 73-percent free-throw shooter missed a pair of charity tosses - as the Mustangs pulled off a dramatic probable, yet improbable, miracle victory.

Had 'em all the way.


This is just another example of how there are no locks in basketball and while numbers can help us find edges and give us a better chance of being successful, nothing is a sure thing. They key is to do our homework and find information we trust that has proven to be successful over time and then be consistent in our approach.


Our model had SMU as what we call a Superstar Pick, with better than a 70-percent win probability. Are the Mustangs a better team than Virginia? Absolutely. Did they deserve to win last night? Probably not. But fortunately for our sake they ran into a team that for about 36 minutes played worse than them on one of their worst nights.


Our pick won, and we looked like geniuses, but just a few days ago our Superstar Pick met a far different fate. Sunday, a Mercer team which by the numbers was far superior to Western Carolina had a terrible shooting day and lost a game the Bears probably should have won. Despite a horrible afternoon shooting from beyond the arc and at the free-throw line - and in spite of their top player having one of his worst outings of the season - the Bears were right in there with a chance to win right up until the end before eventually falling by 3.


Ironically, Mercer found another way to blow a game it should have won Wednesday night against a strong Samford team, which we had listed as one of our betting edges and a potential parlay option.


Samford had the ball with the score tied and a chance to hold it for the final shot. One of their guards fell down while trying to milk the clock and lost the ball to Mercer for a fast-break opportunity in the final 10 seconds. A layup attempt was blocked - and probably should have been called a foul - and the ball bounced out of bounds with 5.9 seconds left. It was awarded to the Bears.


Mercer called timeout and drew up a play. There appeared to be no way the Bears could lose in regulation.


Right? Right?


Wrong.


Mercer struggled to pass the ball in bounds. The player with the ball attempted to throw it off the back of an opponent to avoid the five-second violation, but the ball took a crazy bounce and was loose on the floor. One of the Mercer players collided with a Samford player trying to corral the ball, and a foul was called as the buzzer sounded. Upon further review, it was determined that the foul had occurred with 0.9 seconds left. Two free throws later Samford had a miracle win of its own.


In the span of a few days this week, two games went in our favor that probably shouldn't have, while we lost one that we probably should have won. On paper - and by the numbers - those should have been three easy wins for the favorites.


By chance, I stumbled across the folks who I'm working with here at StatLogic Sports almost eight years ago. As someone who has worked in the sports industry for more than 30 years - 15 at the NCAA Division I level - I always felt like I had an advantage over the average sports fan and the casual gambler. But I never won consistently until I met the great people in the family that owns our proprietary algorithm and started following their instructions on a daily basis.


We are fully transparent. Our college hoops results for the season are posted. Our top recommended picks in all sports have won about 70 percent of the time since mid-August. The next level of picks, our All-Star selections, have won between 65 and 70 percent of the time. And the picks we've posted as having "betting edges" but that don't meet our stringent requirements to be released as recommended selections, have won between 56 and 57 percent of the time.


On top of that, some of the really strong picks that just miss meeting the criteria to be Superstar or All-Star selections, often are posted as money line parlay options. Those picks have gone 17-2 the last two days after going 19-1 from Jan. 4-6. They are an astounding 78-20 since Jan. 4. That's nearly an 80-percent success rate by us simply providing our followers with more options, even if they aren't bets we would recommend or make ourselves.


That's literally unheard of in this industry, and all of those picks have been posted daily on this website.


We rarely recommend parlays, because the win probability always decreases with those types of bets, but we realize some folks simply won't bet on games with odds shorter than -200. Some of our recommended picks do have odds shorter than that, so we at least want to try to help a larger audience be successful, even if if those games are what we label "bet at your own risk."


The bottom line is that no one wins all the time, and many folks in our position fudge their results in hopes of conning bettors, who already may be losing, out of more of their hard-earned money. As this site prepares to switch to a format that requires payment for our absolute best selections, keep in mind that we are here to help as many people as possible win regularly while also educating new and veteran bettors about the pitfalls that await them if they aren't responsible and don't follow a plan that has proven to be successful over the long term.


The algorithm that provides the StatLogic Sports recommended selections has helped clients realize a positive ROI that meets or exceeds most other investment opportunities on an annual basis for two decades. In the eight years I personally have known the family that owns our algorithm, I have been astonished in observing and tracking their results firsthand.


It is what we say it is, and after years of helping the rich get richer and successfully servicing mainly high-end, well-to-do clients, we are ready to help the masses find success in a booming industry that can be ruthless and beats the public far more often than it doesn't.


Our site will be restructured soon to a true paid membership and subscription format, but we always will make some of our information available free to the general public. The more people we can help win, the better it makes us feel, but for anyone who wants to enjoy a long-term profit after years of frustration and bad beats, we just ask you to give us a shot.


We won't let you down.


We have rough patches, too - just like any sports gambler - but you have our word that while we may let you down for a few days here and there, we will always make it up to you and will always stick to the plan that has been successful at an astonishing rate for the past two decades.


It has been our pleasure to share this product with the gambling community since August, and we are excited to welcome anyone who wants to join us as members in the future to the StatLogic Sports family.


This website is the result of two families who met by chance and have come together with the simple goal of making a difference for as many people as possible. Family takes care of family.


Come join us on this exciting journey. We'd love to have you!



Here are our recommended picks, betting edges & parlay options for Jan. 16:



StatLogic Sports Superstar Pick for 1/16

Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability

CBB: Tennessee Martin money line -240 vs. Eastern Illinois (70% win probability) - WIN

NBA: Clippers & Suns money line parlay -167 - WIN



StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 1/16

All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability

CBB: N/A

NBA: N/A



Parlay City

While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edtes.


Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 85-25 since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15.



Potential Money Line Parlay Options for 1/16


NBA:

Phoenix Suns - WIN

LA Clippers - WIN


CBB:

Michigan - LOSS

Memphis - LOSS

Gonzarga - LOSS

Tennessee Martin - WIN

Queens - WIN

UNC Wilmington - WIN

Charleston - WIN

San Francisco - WIN

High Point - LOSS

Santa Clara - LOSS



NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:

492-382-12 (56.3%)


Jan. 16 Record: 15-6-0

Jan. 15 Record: 8-11-1

Jan. 14 Record: 9-6

Jan. 13 Record: 3-2

Jan. 12 Record: 3-4

Jan. 11 Record: 22-20-1

Jan. 10 Record: 4-4-0

Jan. 9 Record: 8-7-0

Jan. 8 Record: 10-8-1

Jan. 7 Record: 7-9-1

Jan. 6 Record: 5-2-0


Last 11 days: 94-79-4 (54.3%)

Last 36 days: 307-238-8 (56.3%)



Stat-Logic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 1/16

Stony Brook +10.5 at Delaware - WIN

Siena pick -110 vs. Sacred Heart - WIN

Fairfield money line -125 vs. Niagara - WIN

Old Dominion +3 vs. Appalachian State - LOSS

Marshall +6.5 at James Madison - WIN

Charleston - 4 at Campbell - WIN

Hofstra +5 at Towson - WIN

Monmouth money line -130 at North Carolina A&T - WIN

UMKC +9 at North Dakota State - WIN

UTEP +8 at Liberty - WIN

Rutgers +8.5 at Nebraska - WIN

Maryland -2 at Northwestern - LOSS

Cal Riverside +6.5 at UC Santa Barbara - WIN

Washington State -12.5 at San Diego - LOSS

Long Beach State +15 vs. UC San Diego - LOSS

UC Davis +5 at Cal Poly SLO - WIN

Santa Clara -4.5 at Loyola Marymount - LOSS

Gonzaga -8.5 at Oregon State - LOSS

New Hampshire +13.5 at UMBC - WIN

Bryant money line -160 at Albany - WIN

Binghamton +11.5 at Vermont - WIN

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