Here is our eighth version of the StatLogic Sports NCAA College Football Power 35. This edition is for Week 13 of the 2024 NCAA College Football season and includes betting edges and some recommended picks. Our full slate of betting edges will be posted by the noon Eastern kickoffs on Saturday along with any additional recommended bets.
These are power rankings for the top 35 teams (and more teams up through about No. 60) based on a combination of performance, the good old eye test, our algorithm's numbers, the market and the bookmakers' opinions. We also got a new batch of data from the College Football Playoff rankings this week to consider. As the week goes on, information such as injuries are added to help adjust numbers as well as other considerations such as the weather, and the importance of the game to both teams. Our strict rules and guidelines are then applied to the weekly picks our model provides for us to give us our recommended selections for the week.
After several weekends of upsets and some less-than-stellar performances by teams at the top of our rankings, the teams at the top have gotten a little more jumbled with much less separation. And teams that have faced more difficult schedules have inched their way past teams such as Penn State and Indiana.
The lone exception is Texas, which has no signature wins this year but remains near the top of our power rankings most likely thanks to the eye test and belief among the the bookmakers and sharp betting market that they are that good despite their weaker schedule. They have done a good enough job against the level of opponents they've faced, according to our model, to earn that position, and that sentiment is shared by the market.
More teams playing more games against better competition can propel teams that have been undervalued and drop teams that have been overvalued as the data corrects itself. BYU has been undervalued all year because so many "sharp" bettors feel that they have been fortunate to win a few games and that the advanced numbers don't support them as a weekly favorite and top 10 team. The gambling media who follow the sharps and don't deviate - but also don't run their own numbers - tend to reinforce this belief to the masses, which can cause a large percentage of "pro and joe" wagers against the teams that the sharps feel are overvalued. Sometimes this causes a really good team to be substantially undervalued in the market and our rankings, which are a combination of many factors.
After an unlucky loss at home to Kansas last week - something many folks felt the Cougars deserved - BYU has dropped back in our Power 35 to a position where many pundits felt they belonged all year. Meanwhile, Indiana and Penn State have taken over the Cougars' role as teams that probably should be ranked higher than the numbers indicate. We will find out more about the Hoosiers this week as they face No. 2 Ohio State in a critical Big Ten late-season matchup.
Because these power rankings are objective numbers, there almost always are teams like BYU, Indiana and Penn State that we feel likely are overvalued or undervalued based on our model and guidelines. Indiana finally seemed to be rising close to where we have valued them for several weeks, but after the College Football Playoff rankings were released this week the public outcry about their strength of schedule seems to have tempered the market on them a bit. Our raw numbers had the Hoosiers as about a 6.5-point underdog vs. OSU, while our final numbers have them at about an 8.5-point dog. The spread for that game as of Thursday morning was Ohio State -13.
We are always tweaking our process as the season continues and these numbers are updated throughout the week based on the factors mentioned above right up until the first kickoff of the day every Saturday.
We use this process to determine our recommended picks each week and to list games that we feel have betting edges. Games with potential edges can be found below as well.
Superstar Picks have better than a 70-percent win probability according to our model, while All-Star Selections have a 60-percent or better win probability. Below the rankings are the games we felt had betting edges before running the numbers through our algorithm as well as our strenuous rules and restrictions.
We will update the recommended picks and edges right up until the early kickoffs on Saturday each week.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for Week 13
Superstar Picks have a 70 or better win probability - TBD
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for Week 13
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Georgia Tech & UNLV money line parlay -127 (68%)
San Jose State +8 vs. UNLV
StatLogic Sports Week 13 NCAA Football Power 35
Oregon 100.0
Ohio State 99.5
Texas 99.0
Alabama 98.0
Mississippi 97.0
Georgia 97.0
Penn State 96.5
Notre Dame 95.5
Tennessee 95.0
Miami 94.0
Indiana 93.5
South Carolina 92.5
SMU 92.0
Colorado 92.0
Texas A&M 91.5
Clemson 91.5
BYU 91.0
LSU 91.0
Boise State 91.0
Arizona State 90.5
Kansas State 90.0
Tulane 89.0
Louisville 89.0
Iowa State 88.5
Washington State 87.5
Kansas 87.0
Baylor 87.0
TCU 86.5
Florida 86.0
Illinois 85.5
UNLV 85.5
Vanderbilt 85.0
Iowa 84.0
Missouri 84.0
USC 84.5
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Syracuse 84.0
Army 84.0
Virginia Tech 83.5
Wisconsin 83.5
Washington 83.5
Auburn 83.0
Cincinnati 83.0
Georgia Tech 82.5
Pittsburgh 82.5
Minnesota 82.5
Central Florida 82.5
Arkansas 82.0
Oklahoma 82.0
Texas Tech 81.5
Michigan - 81.5
California 81.5
Kentucky 81.0
Rutgers 81.0
Nebraska 80.5
North Carolina 80.0
UCLA 79.0
Duke 79.0
Utah 79.0
Virginia 79.0
West Virginia 78.0
Boston College 77.5
Possibly Overvalued
Army, Auburn, Texas, Miami, LSU, UCF
Possibly Undervalued
Tennessee, Indiana, UNLV, Syracuse
Week 13 NCAA Football Betting Edges
Friday Games
Temple +17 at UTSA
Saturday Games
TBD
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