StatLogic Sports Week 6 NFL Power Ratings Plus UPDATED Betting Edges and Parlay/Teaser Options

Our Week 6 National Football League Power Ratings are complete, but there still can be minor tweaks and changes as more injury and other game information is released ahead of the Sunday and Monday games. Changes become more likely and frequent as injuries to key players across the league continue to mount and more injury information becomes public, so make sure to check back frequently.

The current ratings can be found below, and at the bottom of the page there also are some early betting edges, parlay and teaser options. These also will be updated as the week progresses, so always check back before placing any wagers.

With each passing week as more current data is accumulated, the numbers generally become more accurate and provide a better snapshot of where the betting edges might be for that week's games. During the past few weeks, we had our first client recommended picks and bonus bets.

One thing to keep in mind when it comes to analytical data is that when many key players are sidelined with injuries there is no exact method or formula for rating those teams until more data is accumulated from games the team plays without the missing players. So, when it comes to our recommended picks - which are the highest-probability winners according to our proprietary algorithm - key injuries usually mean that games are thrown out and not considered at all.

So far this year, there has been extremely high volatility in betting lines and power ratings because of the number of injuries to key players as well as the surprise injuries that were not initially made public but have popped up on late-week injury reports or even on game days. Last week provided a prime example of that volatility, and since assigning numerical impact to teams based on injuries to players is very much an inexact science, those scenarios make handicapping games even more challenging than usual.

Our betting edges have not performed well given that climate the last two weeks, so we are going to be more particular even with those going forward. As always, the goal is to maximize the odds of winning bets and realize a positive ROI over the long term.

Last week, the Ravens flipped from a 9.5-point favorite to a 2-point home underdog vs. an underwhelming Texans team as injuries to defensive players continued to mount and it was reported that quarterback Lamar Jackson would miss as many as three weeks. In our NFL Power Ratings, Baltimore was at the top a few short weeks ago before plummeting to 23rd this week.

Last Thursday night's matchup also saw a dramatic line move, with the host Rams initially opening as about a field-goal favorite before that line moved about six points in their favor. Los Angeles hosted the injury-depleted 49ers, who were without quarterback Brock Purdy, starting tight end George Kittle and starting receivers Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. Ironically, the oft-injured Christian McCaffrey is one of the team's healthier players for a change, and the Niners managed to pull off the upset victory. That's an outcome that no algorithm could have predicted accurately.

The last two weeks have been rough for our NFL betting edges and parlay/teaser options as all handicapping gets thrown out the window when so many of the league's top players such as Malik Nabers, Tyreek Hill, Jackson, Cee Dee Lamb and many others who don't play the more visible skill positions are dropping like flies during games. Not to worry, though; it may take few weeks to adjust to everything that is being thrown at us, but the numbers will adjust and the results will turn around. We had a very difficult week earlier this year on the college football side of things, but our betting edges and parlay options rebounded there to go 30-14-1 and 17-4, respectively, the previous two weeks.

In the meantime, however, we are going to be more conservative with the edges we present in this space.

These power ratings are the starting point as far as determining our weekly recommended picks. It's one part of the equation that mostly includes our proprietary algorithm, which has predicted winners of college football, college basketball, NFL, MLB and NBA games at about a 65-percent success rate for the last two decades. We first determine where there may be betting edges before running those games through the algorithm.

We provide a lot of free information here to help bettors who crave more action make the best possible decisions with their money, but we only release our top recommended picks to our paying customers. Occasionally, we will release bonus bets that also go to our customers or narrowly miss the cut to be recommended selections here as a thank you for coming to our site. Sometimes these are sent only to clients and sometimes we make them public.

Our recommended picks must have at least a 65-percent win probability and meet a strict set of requirements before earning that distinction and being sent out to our customers. These are low-volume, investment-oriented selections that have returned an annual ROI equal to or exceeding what other potential investments traditionally yield. They are entirely based on the algorithm and the strict rules and guidelines we apply to each game. There is no human bias involved.

This is the approach that we recommend for our clients - a long-term, investment-based mindset that minimizes risk and maximizes their return on investment.

We realize there is a large market of more casual sports bettors who enjoy wagering on multiple games and the excitement of having action on several contests per day or on a weekly basis. While we don't condone or promote that type of betting behavior, we realize that it is a reality and post information here to help those bettors maximize their odds of being successful.

Any information supplied for that market is considered "bet at your own risk." We track the performance of those suggested edges but DO NOT recommend that approach.

StatLogic Sports Week 6 NFL Power Ratings

Updated following Thursday Night Football

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Bills	99.7
2	Lions	98.2
3	Packers	97.8
4	Eagles	97.6
5	Rams	97.3
6	Colts	96.5
7	Buccaneers	96.2
8	Chiefs	96.1
9	49ers	95.9
10	Chargers	95.4
11	Broncos	95.4
12	Commanders	95.2
13	Seahawks	93.8
14	Jaguars	93.5
15	Patriots	93.4
16	Steelers	92.9
17	Texans	93.4
18	Falcons	92.8
19	Vikings	92.8
20	Cowboys	92.5
21	Bears	92.1
22	Cardinals	91.9
23	Ravens	90.5
24	Browns	90.2
25	Giants	89.6
26	Panthers	89.5
27	Dolphins	89.48
28	Raiders	89.1
29	Bengals	89.1
30	Saints	88.8
31	Jets	88.4
32	Titans	87.2

StatLogic Sports Week 6 NFL Betting Edges

Thursday, October 9

We have the Eagles with a 7.5-point advantage over the Giants on the road. The line is 7 or 7.5, depending on the book. We would give an edge to Philadelphia at -6.5 or better. No bet otherwise.

Sunday, October 12

Updated Sunday, Oct. 12 at 12:00 p.m. ET

Cowboys at Panthers OVER 47 - WIN

Jaguars +1.5 vs. Seahawks (Jax -1.7) - LOSS

Panthers +3 (prefer 3.5) vs. Cowboys (2.0) - WIN

Bucs money line -170 vs. 49ers (-2.3)

More to come Sunday. Please check back.

October 12 NFL Recommended Bet

Raiders money line -185 vs. Titans (70% win probability)

Week 6 NFL Money Line Parlay Options

Eagles - LOSS

Colts - WIN

Broncos - WIN

Rams - WIN

Commanders

Bills

Week 6 NFL Teaser Leg Options

Browns from +6 to +11.5 or 12 (6.2) - loss

4:25 p.m. Prime Time Props

Cade Otton OVER 30.5 receiving yards -115

Josh Jacobs OVER 12.5 receiving yards -118