This week we're going to keep it simple and just provide you with the top core and value plays for the week in DFS along with a few daily and full-season fantasy nuggets. We'll bullet point these to make it quick and easy on a gameday morning.
When a big-name running back goes down, the backup isn't an automatic plug and play. Sometimes in full season the injury situation leaves us with no choice, but in general, as we approach the midway point of the season we want to play the players with the best matchups and can't assume that whoever replaces the starter will get the same volume and produce the same numbers. In a Kyle Shanahan syste, it's fine to roll with the next man up; that has been proven consistently over the year. Last week for the Commanders, Austin Ekeler was a popular DFS play and full-season start. Against the Ravens strong run defense, Kliff Kingsbury didn't even pretend his team would be able to run the ball and had QB Jayden Daniels sling it all over the field. Cam Akers is a backup who can't stick with a team for a reason. Antonio Gibson will never be able to handle the volume that Rhamondre Stevenson gets. Trey Sermon wasn't almost out of the league because he's ready to break out as an NFL starter. You get the point. Be very careful with these types of players in DFS.
Remember that players like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown and even Tyreek Hill always are going to be at or near the top of the weekly wide receiver rankings. The vast majority of the time they will see a high volume of targets and have a high floor as well as a high ceiling. But in DFS, if those guys only hit their high floor they likely are not putting us in a position to cash in because that is probably below the value of their high salaries. Some weeks they will have difficult matchups with top cornerbacks or will be double-teamed regularly. We win money by selecting players that consistently surpass their value and filling our lineup with them. Jordan Addison, Tee Higgins and Jameson Williams are those types of players as they may see more room to run and get open opposite the top receivers in the NFL.
It almost never pays to pay up at tight end in DFS. Unless we feel that a player like Kittle or Kelce is getting into the end zone a couple of times, we have to remember that everything is relative in DFS. Most "good" tight end weeks will not produce enough points to surpass the $7,500 or $7,900 value threshold, so we are better off finding a bargain TE who might get us 8-10 points while paying up elsewhere. Also keep in mind that players such as Kyle Pitts, Brock Bowers and Isaiah Likely don't really line up as traditional tight ends, so making a decision about whether to play them or not shouldn't be based solely on how their opponent performs against tight ends.
Style points don't count at quarterback. Points are points, whether they come in the first half, in overtime or garbage time. Low-priced QBs that are matched up against poor defensive teams that also have strong offenses often produce the type of shootout numbers that can allow these guys to far-exceed their value and help us cash. A QB playing against a bad pass defense and a team that scores a lot of points who is likely to play from behind all game is an even better proposition. Say hello to Mr. Andrew Dalton, Drake Maye and Tyler Huntley.
All pricing is based on the FanDuel main slate.
Week 7 Top Core & Value NFL DFS Lineup Plays
Elite Pay-up Core Quarterback
Jayden Daniels - $9,100
Super Value Core Quarterback
Kirk Cousins - $7,200
Value Dual-Threat Quarterback
Jalen Hurts - $8,500
Value Matchup Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford - $7,100
Daniel Jones - $7,000
Andy Dalton - $7,400
Drop Back and Punt Quarterback
Tyler Huntley - $6,700
Top Tier Pay-up Core Running Backs
Kyren Williams - $8,600
Saquon Barkley - $9,000
Value Core Running Back
Tony Pollard - $7,100
Bijan Robinson - $8,200
Volume Running Back with TD Potential
David Montgomery - $8,100
Brian Robinson - $8,000
Value RB2
Jahmyr Gibbs - $7,800
Kenneth Walker - $7,500
Value Flex Running Backs
Austin Ekeler $6,600
Chase Brown $6,500
Raheem Mostert $6,300
Alexander Mattiso - $6,100
Tyler Allgeier - $5,800
Drop Back & Punt Flex RBs
Tyler Goodson - $5,100
Dameon Pierce - $5,100
Top Tier Pay-up Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson - $9,400
Ja'Marr Chase - $9,300
Amon-Ra St. Brown - $8,800
Top Tier Value Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill - $7,900
Malik Nabers $8,300
Top Value Core WR1
Drake London $7,500
Terry McLaurin $7,200
Diontae Johnson $7,100
Jayden Reed - $7,600
Top Value Pivot WR2 or WR3
Jordan Addison - $6,300
Darnell Mooney - $6,300
Jameson Williams - $6,500
Wan'Dale Robinson - $6,600
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - $6,100
Tank Dell - $7,000
Tee Higgins - $7,800
Jaylen Waddle - $6,200
Super Value Flex Wide Receivers
Noah Brown - $5,000
Tutu Atwell - $5,800
Jerry Jeudy - $5,600
Tyler Lockett - $5,800
Xavier Legette - $5,900
Drop Back and Punt WR3 or Flex
Luke McCaffrey - $4,300
Top Tier Pay-up Tight End
George Kittle - $7,500
Travis Kelce - $7,100
Brock Bowers - $7,000
Top Value Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts - $5,900
David Njoku - $5,300
Zach Ertz - $5,100
Dalton Schultz - $5,200
Super Value Tight Ends
Harrison Bryant - $4,400
Ja'Tavion Sanders - $4,900
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