It's been well documented that our picks are hot. On fire, really. From Friday, Aug. 11, through Friday, Aug. 18, our top-level recommended picks were a perfect 7-0. Including our second-level, high-probability win picks, we had nailed 11 of our previous 12 selections.
The gambler would beg for more: "Keep it rolling. We're hot. Gotta capitalize," he or she might say. And you might say the same thing and wonder why we had no picks over the weekend.
Remember, we are not gamblers. We are in business of trying to maximize your odds of winning at all times. Our mission is to make you, the customer, a sizable return on your investment over the long term. A great week here and there certainly makes our clients happy and ultimately streaks like the one we are on are essential to our long-term goals. But please remember that in the world of sports gambling, more is never better. Given the odds and history of sports books and bookmaking, the reality is that the more you bet the more you will probably lose.
The thinking detailed above - "more, more, more ... we're winning so let's keep going" - is exactly the emotion we work hard to take out of the equation. We offered no top-level picks over the weekend, nor did we offer any second-level, high-probability winners. Like you, we always want to keep the momentum going and make our customers as much money as possible - and use those hot streaks to get more new clients - but we have to be disciplined and stick to the plan or we are doing our customers a disservice.
On both days Atlanta was our highest-probability winner, but at not at a level that we were comfortable with the Braves being a recommended selection. There were too many indicators that it wasn't a strong enough play to for us to send it out to our paying customers.
An example of how this works, so that you better understand, is Saturday's Atlanta-Cincinnati game. As mentioned earlier, Atlanta was the strongest pick of the day based on our analysis, but not anywhere near strong enough to be a recommended top pick and below our normal second-level pick standards. Cincinnati has been pretty terrible this year, so we dug deeper. Our system uses an extremely detailed statistics-based formula to analyze every game - and it provides many useful numbers for us.
This game actually looked very good, except for one thing: the starting pitchers. We had the pitchers both rated between 1 and 3 on a scale of 10, and our guidelines simply won't allow us to recommend any game with such a poor level of starting pitching on both sides. Guess what happened? Cincinnati won and the teams combined for 19 runs.
Sure, we could have rolled the dice and played off of our momentum and given out Atlanta as a second-level pick, but we are not gamblers. If we win we make our customers happy for another day, but if we lose then we've needlessly ruined our streak, lost our clients' money and at the end of the year will have a smaller ROI than we should have. That's not good for our business, and it's not what's best for our customers.
We know that sometimes you guys get the itch to bet many games to up the ante and make things more exciting. That's the pathway to a downward spiral that can lead to a lot more problems than just having a boring weekend with no sports wagering.
Remember, our customers come first ALWAYS! Stick with us and don't deviate from the plan. At the end of the year you'll be grateful We promise. Your boring couple of days will be a distant memory, and hey, we opened up a weekend for you to actually get out of the house and do something productive. No thanks necessary!