At SportsPickLogic we take so many variables, statistics and and other types of information into account before giving out recommended MLB picks that it would make your head spin. And sometimes, even when it produces what appears to be a strong pick, some of the information we evaluate produces information that tells us we can’t recommend a pick. Occasionally the pick is still strong enough to be one of second-level picks, but many times in our ongoing attempt to look out for our customers, we will stay away altogether.
Some red flags that we look for when handing out selections include:
Runners Left on Base
A team that is leaving a high number of runners on base, especially if those runners are being left in scoring position, in recent games is one we tend to avoid. This can be a sign of a team that is pressing and trying too hard, which leads to bad decisions at the plate in critical situations, or just a team that isn’t playing the game the way it’s meant to be played – by moving runners over and sacrificing at-bats for the good of the team. They are playing selfish baseball instead of a team-oriented game, which is likely to lead to inconsistent performances over time. Either way it is a problem and something to look out for – especially if the numbers have risen considerably in recent games.
Good Teams with Nothing to Play for
Rarely in recent weeks have we given out dominant teams such as the Nationals or Dodgers as picks. Once we hit August and a team is well out in front of the pack in a division race, its performance tends to level off or even decline. This can be for a number of reasons – key players given days off to rest and recuperate, general disinterest (baseball is a game of focus and concentration, and when that wanes even a little individual performance tends to decline), younger prospects being played while the veterans rest; or the team may be playing a hungry team that is still involved in another division race or still playing for the wildcard. We don’t care why it happens, we just stay away from teams that are way up in their divisions late in the year. Our system always takes the big picture into account and avoids potential situations that can put our customers into a big financial hole (see Bad Odds below).
Teams That Are Out of the Race
For similar reasons to those listed above for teams that are way out in front of their divisional races, it’s hard to recommend a team that is well out of the race – not because those teams aren’t trying, but more because the organization is probably planning for the future and playing more and more young prospects to see if some aging or overpaid veterans are expendable. You never know what you are going to get from a group of young and talented – but inexperienced – players. That same group might thump the Dodgers one day and then get drilled by the Padres the next. Our system is based on taking human emotion out of the equation and providing our customers with the absolute highest-percentage opportunity to win through the use of statistics, information and a strict set of rules. Stay away from teams that are out of the pennant race in August and September – especially after the Sept. 1 roster expansion!
Terrible Starting Pitchers Facing Each Other
“But it’s the Astros against the White Sox,” you argue. We don’t care; if two stiffs are on the hill, stay away! After all the statistics are analyzed, not only do we get a win probability report but we also get a report on the two pitchers. They are rated on a scale of one through 10, and if two very low ratings come out, we do not send out the game as one of our recommended picks. There is just too much unpredictability involved. Major League hitters are still the best baseball players in the world, even if they are on a bad team, and it’s just not a wise bet to bank on a good team outscoring another in a matchup of horrible hurlers. Remember that even blind squirrels find nuts!
Bad Odds
Yes, I know Kershaw is on the mound. And yes he’s lights out. And sure there’s a reason the Dodgers are a 3-1 (-300) favorite in the game. But the risk is too high for the reward. Remember that our goal is to provide you, the customer, with a long-term investment opportunity that has provided better than a 20% ROI historically over more than 10 years. With that in mind, again these are professional hitters that Kershaw is facing, so all that it takes is one loss on a bad-odds bet to put you in a pretty big hole. When it comes to sports gambling, the players who get in a financial hole often try to recover from that loss quickly and make unwise choices as their emotion gets the best of them. Between our statistical analysis, other key information and strict guidelines, we strive to keep our customers out of these situations and on a gradual path to a 20%-plus return over the course of the year. Occasionally we will go with a -200 pick, but it’s rare, and we NEVER go with anything above that. We’d rather stay away and not suffer a big loss so that we can continue on that gradual path toward a strong overall ROI.