NFL Week 1: WE TOLD YOU SO! (sample story)

We never like to gloat, especially in the face of potential lost money, but facts are facts. Last week in our blog we talked about how no one really has enough solid information heading into Week 1 of the NFL season to provide truly confident wagering selections that you should trust. In hindsight, we were right.

But instead of saying, "We told you so," we will just continue to do what we do and invite you to come over to this side of the sports wagering world, where the customer comes first and risk and emotion are taken out of the equation.

Hopefully you took our advice and stayed away Week 1, and if you did maybe you should take the money you saved and join us now for some FREE MLB picks until we have enough current statistical information to start promoting our NFL selections.

A quick look back outlines the damage:

  • The top selection among online handicappers we surveyed was the Falcons, who were picked by eight of nine "experts" to cover the seven-point spread against the Bears. Their six-point victory not only didn't cover, but also could have easily turned into a loss.

  • The next-strongest pick among the "experts" was the Bengals, with seven of eight handicappers surveyed predicting that they would cover as three-point favorites against the Ravens. How does a 20-0 loss sound? Ouch!

  • We started off Week 1 with the defending-champion Patriots picked by seven of 10 surveyed touts to cover the nine-point margin over the Chiefs. Didn't cover. Didn't win.

  • The Steelers were selected by six out of nine "experts" to cover the 8.5 spread vs. an improved Browns team, but much like the Bears their three-point victory very well could have gone the other way. Oh, and they didn't cover.

At least heading into Week 2 we have a little bit of an indication about where teams are at the moment, but do we really have enough to confidently advise people how to risk their money? At SportsPickMagic we certainly do not have enough hard statistical data at this point to be comfortable advising you, and since our customers are always out No. 1 priority, once again we will not be giving out picks just to say we did it or in hopes that we might get lucky and throw some winners out there that earn us a few new clients.

On the surface, the proud and mighty Patriots would look to be a lock to bounce back and hammer their next opponent after a week on the practice field with a surly future Hall-of-Fame head coach. Somehow they already are a a 4.5-point favorite on the road against a Saints team that is usually great at home and HASN'T EVEN PLAYED YET!

How can anyone confidently tell you the Patriots can cover that? Sure, history and tradition are on their side, but they have significant injuries to key players and lack depth on the offensive line. Anyone who tells you they are a lock is just being overconfident to make you feel comfortable with his or her advice.

DON'T GIVE IN. DON'T DO IT, I tell you! Instead invest in us as we invest in you and join here to get our RED-HOT MLB picks for FREE until our software is ready to help you win by betting on NFL games. Our last 17 MLB preferred picks have gone 14-3, and we are 21-6 in our last 27 MLB picks overall. For the year both our advised and secondary high-probability MLB winners are around 65% with a strong ROI.

Look at the NFL schedule for God's sake. Don't torture yourself. Bengals vs. Texans? They both laid major eggs Sunday. You're going to risk your hard-earned money on one of them? C'mon man!

Tennessee is favored on the road at Jacksonville coming off a loss while the Jags dismantled the Texans with a stifling defense. Really?

Cleveland, which played the Steelers tough, is a 7.5-point dog on the road at Baltimore, which dismantled the Bengals when everyone expected the Ravens to lose. Consensus losers a week ago and now a 7.5-point favorite against an improved-Browns squad? How do we know they are for real? (Some of us live in Baltimore. They are not.)

Carolina, which won despite an uneven offensive performance at San Francisco, is a 7. 5 point favorite against a Bills team that looked better than advertised in a win over the Jets. That doesn't seem outrageous, but is that strong enough to run with when you are throwing money down on a game?

The list goes on and on. The bottom line is that no one has enough solid information at this point to confidently predict the outcome of NFL games against the spread. Always remember that Vegas (or your bookie) stay in business for a reason. And if the handicappers tell you that they do have enough good information to make a bet confidently two weeks into the season they are liars trying to build your confidence to take your money. They get paid whether you win or lose, so at the end of the day, once the check is in the bank they are onto the next customer.

Our success is based solely on a long-term plan to get you a solid return on your investment. We don't disappear after you make a payment. Instead we are in touch almost every day, providing you with your preferred picks or giving you strong, but not quite as confident second-level picks while pointing out potential red flags with those games. We are not a marketing machine cranking out videos and multiple picks for one game just to ensure that at least some of our customers stick with us. We want ALL of our customers to stick with us ... and then to help us grow (and be rewarded for it. I know, a novel idea, huh?).

We want to give our loyal customers the best service we can, protect them against losses and deliver on our promises. It takes a lot less time and energy to focus on those we have on board than those who we hope to have on board. It's easier for us to keep our clients happy and offer them amazing referral bonuses so that the success of our product and customer service speak for themselves and spread organically as people tell their friends about us and then get paid nicely when their referrals jump on board.

We take pride in being different, but it's really just as simple as running a reputable, trustworthy business and truly caring about the success and happiness of our customers first. That's the way it's supposed to be, right?

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