By Scotty P. – SPM Staff
Here it is, my annual Fantasy Football Do Not Draft List!
This year it’s coming to you a little earlier than usual since we have a couple weeks coming up with nothing to do but read Adam Schefter reports, over-think our previous drafts and upcoming draft strategies and stress out about every potential bump and bruise suffered by our targeted and already-drafted players.
A few things to keep in mind:
Your "sleeper" pick is somebody else’s "sleeper" pick.
DO NOT DRAFT does not mean that you should avoid the player altogether. It means that I will not be drafting a player based on past performance, previous injuries, previous frustration or a belief that you should avoid certain players who play certain positions for certain coaches. If a player drops in a draft at least 10 spots below his ADP or projected value in that format, most times it’s worth taking a shot on him. I will not be, however.
The order of this year’s DO NOT DRAFT LIST will be based on projected value and ADP instead of position, coach or team. Don’t worry, coaches and teams to avoid for specific positions will be addressed within the article.
Here we go!
1. Saquon Barkley – He’s burned me twice and has not been at full speed in camp or played in any preseason games. Personal preference. He is one player I MIGHT consider if he drops to me in the second round. He may turn into an MVP candidate, but it won’t be on my roster until he proves he can last a full season again.
2. Aaron Jones – Overall, Jones is extremely productive, but tends to have quite a few boom-or-bust week throughout the season and seems dependent upon how well Aaron Rodgers plays. Will Rodgers have another season like last year? Seems unlikely. Over the years Jamaal Williams has taken a share of Jones’ workload at unexpected times, and now young bruiser A.J. Dillon is waiting in the wings. I like Jones as a player, but don’t want to draft him as high has he is being taken in every draft.
3. Joe Mixon – He’s underachieved every time I’ve taken him, although he should be unquestionably THE MAN in Cincinnati now. I’m still not sold and am not sure the line will block for him, which means injuries likely await. He played just six games a year ago but for some reason is being touted more than ever this year. I don’t get it. The Bengals’ two key players got mangled playing behind a terrible offensive line last season.
4. J.K. Dobbins – Well, of course now that he’s dinged up this seems obvious, but no matter who the Ravens have in the backfield it’s going to be a timeshare – and it can be worse than other timeshares because the QB runs so much. Unless you have insider info on Baltimore’s weekly gameplan and which back will be featured, it’s just too hard to determine which weeks Dobbins will get the bulk of the work. Gus Edwards has run for 700-plus yards the past three seasons, too, and averaged more than five yards per carry doing it. Edwards signed a big contract to stay in Charm City, and he could start for a lot of teams. Dobbins is going way too high for my taste, but Edwards is a solid sleeper pick later in drafts and now may be more than that given Dobbins’ injury.
5. Miles Sanders – Avoid Eagles RBs at all cost.
6. D’Andre Swift – Between his injury status, the Lions’ historical penchant for not featuring their best back enough and how bad the team will be, I’m staying away unless he REALLY drops far.
7. Javonte Williams – Going way too high for a rookie unknown with a proven NFL veteran sharing the backfield with him.
8. Chase Edmonds/James Conner – See Kenyan Drake/Chase Edmonds 2020 season.
9. Ja’Marr Chase – Rookie with great upside who reportedly is struggling and surrounded by guys who will get a lot of targets. Getting taken way too early.
10. Kenny Golladay – Was a bust last year because of injuries. Injured all camp this year. Not wasting another spot on him this year unless it’s WAYYYYYYY below his supposed value.
11. Odell Beckham Jr. – Still going too high based on his ongoing recovery from a serious knee injury and production the past few years.
12. Laviska Shenault/D.J. Chark – Only willing to give Marvin Jones a shot on the Jags’ roster. You never know which of these two will get the targets.
13. Michael Thomas – Can you get him as your last selection in hopes he can help you for the stretch run? I think the team is done with him and he obviously is not 100 percent. Ruined many fantasy teams last year, including one of mine. Nope.
14. Melvin Gordon – See Javante Williams.
15. Kenyan Drake – Didn’t do much as a supposed feature back last year, and now he’s behind Josh Jacobs. Avoid.
16. Mecole Hardman – It’s just impossible to figure out which weeks will be his boom weeks. Best-ball-only pick.
17. T.Y. Hilton – This enigmatic, oft-injured wideout has saved teams during years in which he actually has stayed healthy, but last year when he was expected to step up and be THE GUY, he did nothing. Zero. And he’s surrounded by talented young receivers in Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman Jr., Zach Pascal, etc. Oh, and his QB is injured and Jonathan Taylor is getting a ton of touches. He has averaged 50 catches and 630 yards the past two seasons. Take a chance on a younger player with a much higher ceiling.
18. Cole Beasley – Just based on general principle. And which weeks will he get 12 targets and which will he get 2?
19. Troy Pollard – Sounds like Zeke is going to carry the rock until he literally drops this year. Oh, and Zeke has caught between 52 and 77 passes each of the past three seasons. Even genius head coach Mike McCarthy won’t go down in flames without making sure that Zeke is more involved this year.
20. A.J. Green – Just. No. Been there. Done that.
21. Rashad Penny – This guy can’t stay healthy, and he’s a part-timer. Rushing attempts have gone from 85 to 65 to 11 in the last three seasons. Take a chance on a player with upside who might make it through the season and actually carry the ball.
22. Tua Tagovailoa – The Dolphins used the fifth overall draft pick on him last year and now one year later reportedly are pursuing a QB who might end up in jail. What else do you need to know?