By Scotty P - SPM Staff
Here are today’s highest-probability MLB winners and best bets based on win probability metrics, implied win probability based on opening lines and projected lines, line movements and other metrics.
Yesterday we were 2-2 overall with our picks as we continue to tweak our system and presentation. We did not have any selections the previous two days and were unable to post yesterday's picks because of travel and family issues.
Best Bets – July 31 MLB
Toronto Blue Jays -246 at Kansas City Royals - WIN Blue Jays 4-0
78.93% win probability and a 50-cent line move in Blue Jays’ favor. Implied win probability exceeded by 14.5 percent.
Philadelphia Phillies -178 at Pittsburgh Pirates - LOSS Pirates 3-2
65.22% win probability and a 25-cent line move in the Phillies’ favor. Implied win probability exceeded by 8.18%.
Oakland Athletics -148 at Los Angeles Angels - LOSS Angels 1-0
54.33% win probability and a 30-cent line move toward Oakland. Implied win probability exceeded by 0.8%.
Mets -129 vs. Cincinnati Reds - WIN 5-4
55.83% win probability with all six metrics having the Mets with a win probability of better than 51 percent and a slight line move in their favor. Implied win probability exceeded by .23%.
Best Bets: 2-2
Best of the Rest – July 21 MLB
Tampa Bay Rays -119 vs. Boston Red Sox - WIN Rays 9-5
56.72% win probability, but only 67% of metrics analyzed have the Rays winning. Implied win probability of 52% exceeded by 4.52%.
San Francisco Giants -118 vs. Houston Astros - WIN 8-6
56.2% win probability, but only 67% of metrics analyzed have the Rays winning. Line flip here with a 26-cent line move toward the giants. Implied win probability exceeded by 4.2%.
Los Angeles Dodgers -170 Arizona Diamondbacks - WIN 8-3
Not overthinking this one. The Dodgers have loaded up for the stretch run and are in a pennant race. Despite their recent struggles they have new parts and are getting healthy at the right time. Don't see them losing again to the D'Backs.
Best of the Rest: 3-0
Dogs of the Day
These are not highly recommended picks, but if you like underdogs these are your best bets today.
Detroit Tigers -112 (opened at -105) vs. Baltimore Orioles - LOSS 5-2
51.3% win probability for a team that opened as a slight dog and has seen the line flip slightly in its favor with a 7-cent line move. Implied probability exceeded by .01% and metrics analyzed have this game as a literal coin flip.
Cleveland Indians +133 vs. Chicago White Sox - WIN 12-11
This would strictly be a value play as an underdog with a better win probability than the implied opening probability. No metrics have Cleveland winning, but the 46.4% win probability exceeds the implied probability of 39.2% by 7.2%. The line has moved 22 cents toward the Tribe.
Dogs of the Day: 1-1
Highest Probability Totals
Indians vs. White Sox under 9.5 - LOSS Indians 12-11
Tigers vs. Orioles over 9.0 - LOSS Orioles 5-2
Mets vs. Reds over 8.5 - WIN Mets 5-4
Totals: 1-2
Overall Record July 31: 8-5 (+.45 units)
Overall Since July 1: 97-79 (55%)