July 19 Highest Probability MLB Games
Below you can find the games that we feel between their win probability and other tangible information have the highest-probability of winning.
There will be a Primary Selection from AlgaVision today. Primary Selections, and Secondary Selections, which have a win probability of 60% or higher, are provided to AlgaVision subscribed customers whenever a pick meets their stringent requirements. Primary Selections are the highest-confidence picks, having a win probability of better than 70%. Picks are posted here and on Twitter shortly after the games start so that you can track them in real time.
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AlgaVision Secondary Selections July 18
No Primary or Secondary Selection
Recent AlgaVision Primary & Secondary Selection Results: 13-8 (65%)
AlgaVision Results since May 1: 37-18 (62%)
Today's Highest Probability Games
These are the picks that, combining all factors and information at our disposal, we feel are the highest-probability selections of the day:
Dogs of the Day:
Rangers - 110 at Tigers - LOSS 14-0 Tigers
Slight line movement here from -105 to -119 in favor of Texas against a hot Detroit team with ace Kyle Gibson on the hill sporting a 6-1 record, 2.29 ERA and 1.069 WHIP. Former first-round draft pick Casey Mize has made strides this year, especially in the last 10 games, but we like that this one flipped from Texas being an underdog to almost a full-blown favorite and has a 50.67% win probability despite opening as a dog.
Athletics -112 vs. Angels - WIN 4-1
Oakland was as high as a +105 dog before the sharp steam took them over the top to a -112 favorite with a 52.2% win probability. Shotei Ohtani brings his live arm to the mound for LA vs. Cole Irvin. Ohtani has a slightly better ERA on the year, while Irvin's WHIP is a little better. This one is a coin flip, and the sharp money and win probability for a team that opened as an underdog puts it over the top for us.
MLB Highest Probability Winners
GM 1 - White Sox -226 vs. Twins - SOX BLOW LATE 1-0 LEAD LOSS
This line moved from -200 to -226. Chicago is 10-2 vs. the Twins this year overall and 6-0 at home. Minnesota is 17-28 on the road and 12-25 as an underdog. This is a pitching mismatch, with Lance Lynn (9-3, 1.99 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) taking on Griffin Jax and his 6.98 ERA. We calculate Chicago's win probability at 74.2 percent.
Rays -267 vs. Orioles and over 9 - LOSS x 2 Orioles 6-1
A huge line move in favor of Tampa Bay here that kept going after we got it at -267. We calculated the Rays' win probability at 79.62 percent. On the total, there was a huge jump from 9-11 in the middle of the day, and it came back down quickly. Someone with the power to move a line liked the number at that A LOT at 9 after it opened the day at 8.5 with sharp money pushing it up all day. Youngster Spenser Watkins has put up good numbers in a couple outings thus far on the bump for Baltimore, but he has to be perfect without having overwhelming stuff. Both of his appearances have gone over despite his 1.74 ERA, while Ryan Yarbrough is 6-3 to the over in his last 10 games and 10-3 for the year.
Houston -236 vs. Cleveland - WIN 4-3
This one is a little dicey considering the line went up and down all day before settling about where it started. Houston can hit. Zach Greinke will always keep his team in the game, and we can't say the same about Jean Carlos Mejia. The Astros have a 63.35% win probability.
Blue Jays -135 vs. Boston - LOSS 13-4 Red Sox
Red-hot Toronto has moved to the top of baseball with a .265 batting average thanks to an offensive explosion that has seen them blow away the competition of late. This one moved slightly in Toronto's favor as the Jays look to make a move on the first-place Sox and may be catching them at the right time. The Red Sox struggled over the weekend vs. the Yankees in a bizarre series with marathon games and off-the-field incidents. Boston finished another late, long game last night and had to hustle to Buffalo for this one. It's an even pitching matchup, but Toronto's bats and the small, but sharp, line movement push this one to a 55.98 win probability in favor of the Jays.
Dodgers -131 vs. Giants - LOSS 7-2
Another divisional showdown as Los Angeles is bearing down on the first-place Giants. This is a fantastic pitching matchup, with San Francisco ace Kevin Gausman (9-3, 1.73, .820) facing Tony Gonsolin. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Gonsolin's starts, and he has posted a 2.13 ERA and 1.303 WHIP. Gausman has been a little inconsistent vs. the Dodgers this year, giving up three runs early in a loss not long ago, and he missed a scheduled start last week to tend to a family issue in Louisiana. Los Angeles is hitting its stride and will field the better offensive lineup for this contest, which has seen the line move more than 20 cents in LA's favor. We have the Dodgers at a 59.07 win probability in this one.
Padres -172 vs. Braves - WE DIDN"T LOSE! Postponed
Yu Darvish at -172 with a line move in his favor against Kyle Muller (3.45 ERA, 1.085 WHIP) is about all we needed to see in this one. The Padres exploded offensively over the weekend for more than 40 runs in three games vs. the Nationals. Atlanta has been one of baseball's bigger disappointments thus far and just can't find any sort of consistency. Darvish is back after a bit of minor injury break that coincided with the All-Star Break. He's rested and brings a 7-3 record, 3.09 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to the mound. San Diego is 14-4 in his starts. This is a percentage play all the way around, and we have the Fathers' win probability at 56.97.
July 17 Record: 2-6
Record Since July 1:
Overall: 79-66-1 (55%)