Houston Texans Photo
By Scotty P. - SPM Staff
Week 3 of the National Football League season can be fascinating when it comes to building our fantasy football lineups. Enough data has been collected that we can begin analyzing and using it to begin formulating some reasonable projections when it comes to player usage, matchups and potential game scripts.
Still, the sample size is relatively small to take all the data at face value, and there are other forces at work that will impact game plans and how players are used.
Teams that didn’t give their top players much or any playing time in preseason games have had two games to get them into game shape, get them accustomed to getting hit and allow them improve their timing and cohesiveness. And that gives coaches eight quarters worth of game film to analyze and better determine how the pieces of the puzzle fit and how players can best be utilized to help their teams win.
As coaches have tried to figure out the winning formula during the first two weeks while of course also trying to win, there has been quite a bit of volatility as far as how players have been used. It hasn’t been unusual to see players get double the targets or touches one week than they get the next. In some cases, players who seemed to be forgotten during Week 1 got 50 percent of the opportunities in Week 2, while players who got the bulk of the Week 1 touches or targets received far fewer chances in their second game – even if they were productive in the first game.
Of course, player usage can be dictated by game flow, but many times early in the season there seems to be no real rhyme or reason to the coaching decisions. We can assume that it’s all a part of the process as coaching staffs figure out the player rotations that suit their teams best.
The problem with using the first two regular-season games as de facto preseason games is that it can lead to unexpected – and unthinkable losses – that put teams in precarious situations just three weeks into the season. Although the season is still young, no one wants to go 0-3. Tha’'s almost a death sentence. This is especially true for teams that were expected to finish at the top of their divisions or in contention for playoff berths such as the Colts (0-1-1), Bengals, Titans and Raiders.
Those teams entered the season with high hopes and likely expected that by Week 3 they would be at least 1-1 and have a good idea of how to proceed if they were to meet or exceed preseason expectations. Instead, they are winless and there are more questions than answers as those teams find themselves in desperation mode and badly in need of a win achieved by any means necessary.
That means they are likely to fall back on what they have done best and what has worked well for them in the past, so we probably can expect heavy doses of Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry this week along with a balanced Bengals attack that includes Joe Mixon in a large multi-purpose role, deep balls to Ja’Marr Chase and a lot of targets for Tee Higgins.
The solution may not be as easy for the Raiders, however, as offensive mainstays Josh Jacobs and Hunter Renfrow likely won’t play. Davante Adams should see closer to the 17 targets he received in Week 1 than the seven he got last week, and Darren Waller seems likely to see his opportunities increase. Third-down back Brandon Bolden was limited in practice all week until Friday, so the bulk of the running back snaps likely will be split between journeyman veteran Ameer Abdullah and rookie Zamir White.
The good news for the Raiders is that it looks as though the Titans also will be missing many key players on both sides of the ball, including several starting defensive players. Barring another early season tie, though, one of those teams will come out of Week 3 with a win and feeling better about their season while the other will be staring at 0-3 and going back to the drawing board.
Strong teams that are 2-0 have the luxury of resting or not over-taxing players who may not be 100 percent for their Week 3 matchups, so that may have an impact on player usage in some situations. Likewise, a talented team like the Chargers that is only 1-1 could take a similar approach with injured quarterback Justin Herbert or maybe they will alter their game plan so that hat he can play and minimize the risk of making his rib injury worse. Is a heavy dose of Austin Ekeler, a somewhat-forgotten man thus far, possible?
Then we have the Tampa Bay Bucs, picked by many to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year. They’ve already been without starting offensive weapons Chris Godwin and Julio Jones this year. This week they likely will be missing those two along with suspended fellow wide receiver Mike Evans.
Tom Brady is throwing the ball well, but between his missing a chunk of training camp and all the injuries, the offense just hasn’t bene in sync. Somehow the Bucs are 2-0 despite scoring no touchdowns until the third quarter of their second game. Tampa Bay’s defense has been outstanding, and running back Leonard Fournette has been very productive.
Fournette likely will shoulder a big load this week in a showdown against the Packers as will Green Bay’s RB tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Those are all viable players in your DFS and full-season lineups, while future HOF QBs Brady and Aaron Rodgers probably should see the bench.
The surprising Giants also are fortunate to be 2-0 after a pair of close wins against not-so-strong opponents, but you can bet they will do everything in their power Monday night to defeat arch-rival Dallas, which also was fortunate to win without starting QB Dak Prescott against the Bengals last week. A rejuvenated Saquon Barkley figures to return to the prominent role that saw him lead New York to victory in Week 1, and Dallas will feature a short-passing game and a lot of touches for Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard.
So, one team’s 2-0 or 0-2 doesn’t always feel the same as it does for another team with a similar record. The NFL season is a marathon and a war of attrition, so while some teams may be in win-at-all-cost desperation mode already, others may be taking a big-picture view and looking at resting or limiting some of their top players and still others may play it by ear based on how the game goes.
Every team’s situation is unique, so when we make our lineups this week, our best approach is to rely on players who are likely to have favorable game scripts, players whose usage to date hasn’t been volatile, star players who maybe haven’t met expectations thus far but figure to carry a large burden this week and of course players with potentially favorable matchups.
In DFS formats we also want to filter all this information while looking for salary-cap value and contrarian picks who won’t be highly owned.
Here’s a look at some players to avoid, some top guys to get into your lineups and some sleeper/value players:
Players to Avoid
DJ Moore – WR Panthers
James Conner (game-time decision) – RB Cardinals
Alvin Kamara (questionable) – RB Saints
Devin Singletary – RB Bills
Darnell Mooney (2 & 3 targets so far) – WR Bears
Allen Robinson (make him prove it first) – WR Rams
Devin Duvernay (TD dependent) – WR Ravens
Tom Brady & Aaron Rodgers
Cole Kmet – TE Bears
Value Studs – Get Them In!
Brandin Cooks – Texans WR $6600 – 11 targets per game, good matchup
DK Metcalf – Seahawks WR $6700
Michael Pittman – Colts WR $7300
Tee Higgins – Bengals WR $7300
Michael Thomas – Saints WR $7300
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Lions WR $7800
Clyde Edwards Helaire – Chiefs RB 7300
David Montgomery – Bears RB $7100
Miles Sanders – Eagles RB - $6800
Antonio Gibson – Commanders RB $6700
James Robinson – Jaguars RB $6600
Joe Burrow – Bengals QB $7500
Kyler Murray – Cardinals QB $7800
Matthew Stafford – Rams QB $7700
Kirk Cousins – Vikings QB $7600
Superstar Studs – Play ‘Em if You Can Pay ‘Em
Jalen Hurts – Eagles QB $8100
Austin Ekeler – Chargers RB $8700
Joe Mixon – Bengals RB $8200
Cooper Kupp – Rams WR $9800 – 14 targets per game
Justin Jefferson – Vikings WR $9500 – 11.5 targets per game, great matchup
Ja’Marr Chase – Bengals WR $8700
Davante Adams – Raiders WR $8700
Stefon Diggs – Bills WR $8300
AJ Brown – Eagles WR $8000
Super Value – Win With These Guys
Marcus Mariota – Falcons QB $7100
Derek Carr - Raiders QB $7
Tyler Higbee – Rams TE $5700
Dallas Goedert – Eagles TE $5500
Tyler Conklin – Jets TE $5200
Jarvis Landry – Saints WR $5500
Ashton Dulin – Colts WR $5600
Garrett Wilson – Jets WR $6100
Curtis Samuel – Commanders WR $6300
Drake London – Falcons WR $6200
Rashaad Penny – Seahawks RB $6200
Raheem Mostert – Dolphins RB $5500
Dameon Pierce – Texans $5800
Michael Carter – Jets RB $5900
JD McKissic – Commanders RB $5300