San Francisco 49'ers photo
By Scotty P. - SPM Fantasy Staff
Since Week 16 brings us the holiday bonus of three Saturday games, we wanted to bring you a special early edition of our SPM NFL DFS Value Analysis as your special gift. Remember that our value picks are designed to over-produce for you based on their salaries in DraftKings and/or FanDuel so that you can surround them with the chalkier, higher-priced players who are most likely to put up the huge numbers. This combination generally puts us in the money, and when one or more of our selections – or you pick the right chalk – you end up in the big money.
Our picks have been consistent money winners on both platforms, but we have really crushed in on FanDuel the second half of the season. So, give us a shot and see how it goes while we are still giving our info away! Below please find our Saturday top-value picks at all positions for both DraftKings and FanDuel as well as our core-player, value and stacked lineup recommendations.
These selections are for the full-roster, classic version of both games, but the relative value of the players should be similar in single-game/showdown options, too, so these picks can help you save money to spend on the guys you have to include in your lineups to have a chance in those formats.
As always, we recommend playing single-entry contests with the highest price you can afford to maximize your chances of winning.
Good Luck!
Quarterback Notes
At the quarterback position, keep in mind that Kyler Murray is still universally projected to be the top point-producer today among QBs. However, we grade his matchup at a D- today, so he could be boom or bust. His legs always make him a pretty solid play, but he’s not a slam dunk this week. At 14.5 to 15 percent of your salary cap, with a target value number at the position of 14 percent, he’s a bit of a risk. But you ABSOLUTELY should pay up for him in one or more lineup, stack him with DeAndre Hopkins and/or Kenyan Drake/Dan Arnold and surround them with high-value players. As a comparison, Tom Brady only takes up around 13 percent of your salary cap, Stafford is between 11 and 12 percent, and Tura Tagovailoa is under 11 percent as a Super Value play in DraftKings.
Top DraftKings QB Value
1. Tom Brady
2. Matthew Stafford – if he plays
DrafKings Super Value QBs
1. Tua Tagaiovailoa
Top FanDuel QB Value
1. Tom Brady
2. Tua Tagaiovailoa
3. Matthew Stafford – if he plays
Running Back Notes
Josh Jacobs is the only true No.1 in the field today, and his matchup is iffy as it’s graded as a C-. His price is a good value at between 12.7 and 13.2 percent of your cap with a 14 percent top-end target. He could very well be the top RB performer on the day, especially with Derek Carr banged up, despite the matchup. He’s not a core player but should probably be in a few of your lineups. There are other very good value picks you can go with, however, that are at the RB2/Flex level and can allow you to stack the WR and QB positions. DeAndre Swift has a really bad matchup, but because of value should earn a spot in a lineup or two. We just can’t make a D- matchup a value pick because of the uncertainty. You can’t afford a zero-burger at the RB1 slot.
Top DraftKings RB1 Value
1. Josh Jacobs
Top FanDuel RB1 Value
1. Josh Jacots
Top DraftKings RB2 Value
1. Leonard Fournette
2. Myles Gaskin
Top FanDuel RB2 Value
1. Leonard Fournette
2. Myles Gaskin
DraftKings & FanDuel Super Value Flex RB
1. Jeff Wilson Jr.
2. Chase Edmonds
3. Salvon Ahmed
4. Adrian Peterson
Wide Receiver Notes
We recommend looking for value at the RB slots and stacking the QB/WR tandem or just buying up for all your receivers. With that in mind, we consider DeAndre Hopkins a great value in FanDuel and worth paying up for in DraftKings.
Top DraftKings WR1 Value
1. Brandon Aiyuk
Top FanDuel WR1 Value
1. DeAndre Hopkins
2. Brandon Aiyuk
Top DraftKings WR2 Value
1. Marvin Jones Jr.
2. Mike Evans
3. Chris Godwin
Top FanDuel WR2 Value
1. Marvin Jones Jr.
2. Mike Evans
3. Chris Godwin
WR3/Flex Value WR Plays FD & DK
1. Antonio Brown
2. Nelson Agholor
Super Value Flex WR Value Plays FD & DK
1. Christian Kirk
2. Danny Amendola
3. Hunter Renfrow
Tight Ends
If George Kittle is back, even on a restricted play count, at a salary that takes up just 10 percent of your cap, you have to give him a shot in at least one, if not more, lineup. His matchup is not good, but he’s the second-best player at his position in the league and should expect being targeted by third-string QB C.J. Beathard as a safety valve. By rule, with a D+ matchup rating we normally would not make him a value selection, but he is today. HOWEVER, we recommend paying up for Darren Waller in the majority of your lineups. He is a value pick for FanDuel and a must-play in DraftKings. Like Kittle, we can’t ignore Gronk as a value selection in DraftKings, even with a D matchup. His salary is way too low on that platform.
Top DraftKings TE Value Plays
1. Rob Gronkowski
2. TJ Hockenson
3. George Kittle
Top FanDuel TE Value Plays
1. Darren Waller
2. TJ Hockenson
3. Rob Gronkowski
4. George Kittle
Super Value TE Plays
1. Dan Arnold
Week 16 Suggested Core Players & Lineups
DraftKings Players to Consider in All Lineups
RB – Leonard Fournette WR – Marvin Jones Jr. TE – Rob Gronkowski D – 49’ers
FanDuel Players to Consider in All Lineups
RB – Josh Jacobs WR – DeAndre Hopkins TE – Darren Waller D – 49’ers
DraftKings Value Lineup
QB – Tom Brady
RB – Leonard Fournette
RB – Josh Jacobs
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
WR – Mike Evans
WR – Marvin Jones Jr.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Flex – Myles Gaskin
D – 49’ers
FanDuel Value Lineup
QB – Tom Brady
RB – Josh Jacobs
RB – Jeff Wilson Jr.
WR – Chris Godwin
WR – Marvin Jones Jr.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Flex – George Kittle
D – 49’ers
DraftKings Stacked Lineup
QB – Kyler Murray
RB – Myles Gaskin
RB – Jeff Wilson Jr.
WR – Brandon Aiyuk
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
WR – Chris Godwin
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Flex – Marvin Jones Jr.
D – 49’ers
FanDuel Stacked Lineup
QB – Kyler Murray
RB – Josh Jacobs
RB – Jeff Wilson Jr.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
WR – Antonio Brown
WR – Hunter Renfrow
TE – Darren Waller
Flex – Rob Gronkowski
D – 49’ers