By Scotty P. - SPM Staff
When it comes to betting Weeks 0 and 1 of the NCAA football season, in this day and age of number-crunching and analytics many people still scramble to use data over information when making bets. No data-driven system is going to be as accurate this early in the year as it will once several weeks of current data has been gathered.
To create analytical or statistical models for Weeks 0 and 1, especially coming out of a COVID-impacted season with few or no fans, fewer participating teams, players opting out, game cancellations and postponements, etc., you are going to have to make some assumptions and do some guesswork. To me, anytime something other than actual numbers are introduced into a data-driven model - whenever human intuition or potential biases are introduced - the numbers lose a decent amount of credibility.
The same thing goes for NFL preseason and even the first two or three weeks of the NFL season. Instead of looking for numbers, I just prefer to be much more selective in the games I choose and to rely on strong information. In the NFL that might be a team playing its starters more than another team, a coach who has proven that he takes winning more seriously than his opponent, a team with one or more key positional battles and possibly a team with a new coach or a coach who has demonstrated a desire to change the culture.
Like the NFL, when it comes to the first two weeks of college football, do your homework, be picky and find the games with solid information that indicates one team has a distinct advantage over the others. Sportsbooks are not perfect this time of year, either, and they tend to rely on numbers to set the opening line before reacting to however the larger and respected-money bets are flowing.
For the opening of college football today, I initially really liked two plays:
Illinois +7 vs. Nebraska
UCLA -9.5 first half vs. Hawaii
First off, home in-conference dogs are always a great spot to start looking when making a college football bet at any point in the season, so the Illinois line on the surface looks solid. Also, the key number of 7 comes into play here as well as it gives you a full touchdown to play with. Finally, there was a huge line move from -11 toward the Illini since the line was first posted earlier this summer. That indicates that the pros like Illinois as the big home dog in this Big 10 matchup.
Now, however, is the time to stay away as the line has dipped to +6.5. This time of year it's not worth paying the juice to buy points, and you are truly getting the worst of the number since it has crossed the key numbers of 10 and 7. The value now is on Illinois on the money line, but this is something we wouldn't even think about risking a full unit on. If you want to sprinkle a small wager to have some opening-day fun and get back in the swing of the things, feel free. I'm staying away. If it goes back to 7 or 7.5, I'm all in on Illinois.
Nebraska has shown absolutely no reason during the Scott Frost era that the Cornhuskers should be this kind of favorite against a Big 10 opponent on the road. All the sudden the erratic, inconsistent QB is an "experienced dual threat?" And there is the cloud of an NCAA investigation lingering over the program, and Frost's job is likely on the line this season. It wasn't even clear who would be traveling with the team this week.
In the other game, Hawaii always seems to be the darling of the betting world because every year the Rainbow Warriors seem to do well at home against the spread and straight up against stronger, favored teams. However, in this opening-day matchup the information screams UCLA. That said, with the Bruins hosting LSU in a huge matchup for the program and head coach Chip Kelly the following week, the big -17.5 full-game spread in their favor also screams "backdoor cover," so I'm staying away from that.
Chip Kelly always has been a statement coach. He will try to make a statement today, but is more than capable of doing that in the first half. And he will. Kelly should be able to do this without showing too much of his playbook, and it would make sense for him to build a lead and rest guys in the second half. He wants to show the college football world that his team is one to be taken seriously while not letting LSU see too much and possibly also finding out what kind of depth he has.
The Bruins have a huge size advantage up front and two very good running backs who have a lot of college experience and have shown they can put up numbers. The QB is more than adequate. It's a top-30 offense and a top-30 defense. UCLA has a ton of players coming back.
Hawaii has a strong defense, but it is one built on speed and not size. Kelly and the Bruins should have their way with the Rainbow Warriors up front and be able to wear them down in the California heat. Also keep in mind that Hawaii has not played a team with the caliber of athletes that UCLA has in more than a year, and this game will be played in front of actual fans in the Rose Bowl.
All the information here points to UCLA to open a nice first-half advantage and cruise to victory. Take the Bruins -9.5 in the first half and leave the back door closed.