By Scotty P. - SPM Fantasy Staff
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We’ve reached Week 13 and have officially entered the dog days of the 2020 National Football League season.
It’s December, so injuries – and COVID cases – continue to pile up as the war of attrition that is an NFL campaign enters the home stretch and teams either grind toward the playoffs or continue their Tank for Trevor. In many cases, the healthiest teams tend to survive and advance, which is something to consider when making both your full-season and DFS fantasy rosters.
It seems like every week new, unknown players are getting their shot – and some of them turn in surprise performances – as others fall by the wayside. Players who have missed a good chunk of the season also are returning from injuries and using their fresh legs to make an immediate impact.
Players on teams who are not in the hunt find new motivation as they play for a starting job or new contract next year. Coaches of those teams turn to the future and start looking at their younger players, while coaches of teams competing for playoff berths start to narrow the focus and turn more often to the things their teams do best as the postseason approaches.
This can create a lot of uncertainty when it comes to figuring out our DFS lineups as we resist the temptation of inserting the boom-or-bust new faces who had big weeks out of nowhere, try to determine if a player coming back from an injury will return to his original role and receive his normal volume of touches and figure out who will be the fill-in QB’s favorite target.
To help you navigate this week, here are some rules to live by when formulating your DFS lineups as the season winds down.
1. Avoid selecting players from teams that are using backup or unknown quarterbacks. You’re not going to know what the game plan is It could be more run heavy with a new guy in the lineup. You don’t know who the go-to receivers will be, and you simply just don’t know how the quarterback will respond under pressure and in various game situations. We would recommend waiting at least three weeks before considering players in these situations so that you have somewhat of a representative sample on which to base your decisions.
2. Volume is king. Make sure that your core players – the ones that you will lean on in most – if not all – of your lineups are high-volume guys. Obviously, the more a player gets the ball, the easier it is for him to put up the numbers necessary to equal or exceed his value and the less reliant he is on scoring touchdowns to help your team. These types of players who do find a way to sneak into the end zone are the ones that set the table for you to make money. Once you establish who these low-risk, high-volume players are then it comes down to surrounding them with value players who have great matchups and studs with a high ceilings AND high upsides.
3. Don’t be afraid to use players coming back from extended injury breaks. If a player has missed a week or two, it’s likely that he’s still banged up and just doing anything he can to help his team even if he’s not 100 percent healthy. Players who have been out for four or more weeks with more serious injuries usually are not allowed back on the field until they are 100 percent healthy. If a player who played a big role and put up strong numbers earlier in the year is coming back after being out for an extended period, he’s going to have fresh legs, be energized and won’t shy away from hits to protect various bumps and bruises. Don’t believe me? See Austin Ekeler, Week 12. Ekeler also looks to be a good play this week. David Johnson is back after an extended vacation. Miles Gaskin returns while other Miami RBs head to the sidelines. The extra burst these players bring to the field can make a big difference this time of year, and coaches won’t be afraid to use them – especially on teams that are battling for the playoffs.
4. Remember that even teams with bad matchups have to throw the ball to somebody. When offenses are facing tough defenses and quarterbacks are under extreme pressure, they usually will turn to the player they trust the most. So, if a top-tier WR has a great price because the matchup is supposed to be difficult – and that player pretty much leads the team in targets on a weekly basis – don’t shy away. Volume is king; just look at DK Metcalf did to Darius Slay last week.
Because of the crazy schedule caused by COVID outbreaks the past couple weeks, today’s DFS top-value picks are taken only from the 12-game main slate. Below please find our top-value plays of the week as well as suggestions for your core players as well as our suggested top value and stacked lineups for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Good Luck!
Top DraftKings QB Value
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Ryan Tannehill
3. Justin Herbert
4. Ryan Fitzpatrick (probably not starting)
5. Derek Carr
6. Kirk Cousins
DrafKings Super Value QBs
1. Baker Mayfield
Top FanDuel QB Value
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Ryan Tannehill
3. Justin Herbert
4. Derek Carr
5. Kirk Cousins
6. Baker Mayfield
FanDuel Super Value QB
1. Ryan Fitzpatrick (probaby not starting)
Top DraftKings RB1 Value
1. Austin Ekeler
2. James Robinson
3. Chris Carson
4. Miles Sanders
Top FanDuel RB1 Value
1. James Robinson
2. Nick Chubb
3. Alvin Kamara
4. Chris Carson
Top DraftKings RB2 Value
1. David Montgomery
2. Kareem Hunt
3. Devontae Booker
4. Miles Gaskin (if Tua starts)
5. Jonathan Taylor
6. Wayne Gallman
7. Damien Harris
Top FanDuel RB2 Value
1. Austin Ekeler
2. Miles Sanders
3. David Montgomery
4. Kareem Hunt
5. Miles Gaskin (if Tua starts)
6. Jonathan Taylor
DraftKings Super Value Flex RB
1. James White
2. Frank Gore
FanDuel Super Value Flex RB
1. Devontae Booker
2. Damien Harris
3. Giovanni Bernard
4. James White
5. Frank Gore
Top DraftKings WR1 Value
1. Justin Jefferson
2. Allen Robinson
3. Michael Thomas
Top FanDuel WR1 Value
1. Adam Thielen
2. Keenan Allen
3. AJ Brown
4. Michael Thomas
5. Justin Jefferson
6. Allen Robinson
Top DraftKings WR2 Value
1. Robert Woods
2. DJ Moore
3. DeVante Parker (if Fitspatrick plays)
4. Robby Anderson
Top FanDuel WR2 Value
1. DeVante Parker (if Fitzpatrick plays)
2. Robert Woods
3. Cooper Kupp
4. DJ Chark
5. Brandin Cooks
WR3/Flex Value WR Plays FD & DK
1. Jarvis Landry – FD
2. Corey Davis – DK & FD
3. Sterling Shepard – DK
4. Nelson Agholor – DK
5. Michael Pittman Jr. – DK & FD
6. Tee Higgins – DK & FD
Super Value Flex WR Plays FD & DK
1. Sterling Shepard – FD
2. Nelson Agholor – FD
3. Keke Coutee – DK & FD
4. Breshad Perriman – DK & FD
Top DraftKings TE Plays
1. TJ Hockenson
2. Robert Tonyan
3. Austin Hooper
4. Evan Engram
5. Trey Burton
Top FanDuel TE Plays
1. TJ Hockenson
2. Robert Tonyan
3. Austin Hooper
4. Evan Engram
5. Trey Burton
Super Value TE Plays
1. Kyle Rudolph
2. Anthony Firkser
Week 13 Suggested Core Players & Lineups
DraftKings Players to Consider in All Lineups
RB – Austin Ekeler, WR – Allen Robinson, TE – Robert Tonyan, D - Patriots
FanDuel Players to Consider in All Lineups
RB – James Robinson, WR – Adam Thielen, TE – Robert Tonyan, D – Titans
DraftKings Value Lineup
QB – Justin Herbert
RB – Austin Ekeler
RB – Damien Harris
WR – Brandin Cooks
WR – Allen Robinson
WR – Robert Woods
TE – TJ Hockenson
Flex – Corey Davis
D – Patriots
FanDuel Value Lineup
QB – Aaron Rodgers
RB – Nick Chubb
RB – James Robinson
WR – Robert Woods
WR – Brandion Cooks
WR – Nelson Agholor
TE – Robert Tonyan
Flex – David Montgomery
D – Titans
DraftKings Stacked Lineup
QB – Aaron Rodgers
RB – Nick Chubb
RB – Chris Carson
WR – Davante Adams
WR – Allen Robinson
WR – Breshad Perriman
TE – Anhtony Firkser
Flex – Tee Higgins
D – Patriots
FanDuel Stacked Lineup
QB – Ryan Tannehill
RB – Nick Chubb
RB – Austin Ekeler
WR – Corey Davis
WR – Davante Adams
WR – DJ Chark
TE – Anthony Firkser
Flex – Devontae Booker
D – Titans