Week 16 NFL DFS Fantasy Football Value Analysis

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By Scotty P. - SPM Fantasy Staff

This is the week that our value selections will have the biggest impact of the season. It’s Week 16 of the 2020 National Football League campaign, and there are only 10 games on the Sunday main slate. That means fewer options and less margin for error. It also means less chalk.

That’s right, in this week’s Sunday main slate there is no Derrick Henry, no Dalvin Cook, no Kyler Murray, no DeAndre Hopkins, no Aaron Rodgers and no Davante Adams. We still have Patrick Mahomes, who is damn near a value pick and someone you must look at playing in FanDuel games, and Tyreek Hill. But if Mahomes and his mates put up a huge first half a la Tom Brady and the Bucs yesterday, that might limit his overall production, and Hill is being “monitored” with a hamstring injury. A blowout might mean rest for him. Remember Sammy Watkins? We do.

Nick Chubb is the highest-priced running back – but not priced outlandishly – and he figures to get a ton of work with Cleveland’s top-four receivers out because of COVID contact tracing. But don’t cry for Cleveland. First of all, the Browns play the Jets, whose ability to put together two good performances in a row is highly questionable. Second, you have an underused and under-valued weapon in Kareem Hunt, who will be able to split out wide and play in the backfield. There will be plenty of work for him on the ground, but he will be a very tough matchup as a receiver, too.

Moving over to the Washington Football Team, who can – believe it or not – clinch the NFC East today with a win over Carolina and a Giants’ loss to the Ravens, their offense appears to be in turmoil. It’s still questionable if Alex Smith or Dwayne “James Harden Jr.” Haskins will be the starter at QB. Top-receiver Terry McLaurin is out. That should be devastating to the WFT offense and render its players useless, right? Not so fast. Antonio Gibson is in, and even if he’s not at 100 percent that means that J.D. McKissic may get fewer carries, but also will play at the same time as Gibson and may split out wide. He and Logan Thomas will be go-to guys in the passing game against a faltering Panthers defense.

Washington will try to manage this game offensively and let its defense try to win it for them. That means a lot of checkdowns and targets for McKissic and Thomas. Gibson also should catch a few balls today, with both running backs being value options now.

Luckily, it appears that we are not yet at the point where teams are resting their top players, so for the teams playing the best players, those guys still should continue to see the bulk of the snaps and touches. There just are a lot fewer “sure things” on a week like this, which means the higher-tiered players are likely to be owned by a larger percentage of your opponents. That again places great importance on finding the sneakier value plays.

Cleveland’s Hunt is one great example. His value and salary have dropped on a weekly basis since the return of Chubb from injury – even though he had a monster game a few weeks back despite receiving much fewer snaps and touches than Chubb. He’s that type of player. We saw a lot more of his explosiveness and versatility in Kansas City, and those traits should be on full display today. Even better, many folks seem to have forgotten about him.

Those sneaky guys others may overlook are what we are here for. Check out this week’s top-value DFS players for DraftKings and FanDuel below along with core-player recommendations and value/stacked lineup suggestions. Take a good, hard look at our value lineups as that may be the way to go this week.

Good luck!

Quarterback Notes

Jalen Hurts is a popular “expert” pick this week, which means that he will be widely owned. That also scares us. He’s a solid pick, because even if he’s struggling through the air he can score with his legs, and Dallas has a bad, but improving defense – one that will be out with one of its top linebackers. Even if Hurts has a bad game, he should put up decent numbers, but his price has gone up to the point that he is at the highest-possible target salary that we normally consider as a “value” play. If he does not exceed that value, which will be hard considering that he would probably need to top the 22-point mark – and he is highly owned – you may be better off looking somewhere else. He’s worth a play in a lineup or two for sure, but we love the sneaky value of Mitch Trubisky, who is leading the Bears on a furious playoff charge, and Goff, who will be overlooked after a less-than-stellar performance against Seattle earlier this year.

Top DraftKings QB Value

1. Jalen Hurts

2. Deshaun Watson

3. Mitch Trubisky

4. Jared Goff

Top FanDuel QB Value

1. Lamar Jackson

2. Jalen Hurts

3. Deshaun Watson

4. Mitch Trubisky

5. Jared Goff

Running Back Notes

David Montgomery has been a late-season, high-volume gift from the fantasy gods this year. And he still has some doubters – as do the Bears. Their change in approach to a more ground-oriented attack also has had the trickle-down effect of making Mitch Trubisky and Allen Robinson more appealing fantasy plays. Amazing how that works, huh? Similarly, Miles Sanders has experienced a rebirth in Philly with the emergence of Jalen Hurts. Austin Ekeler will get carries and targets, especially with Keenan Allen likely out. And Antonio Gibson, now that he is playing, should be the focal point of the WFT offense. We talked about Kareem Hunt earlier. His touches should double today. Le’Veon Bell will get all the carries for the Chiefs. J.K. Dobbins finally has taken hold of the No. 1 RB job in Baltimore, and David Johnson returns for the Texans against a suspect Cincinnati defense with Duke Johnson out of the lineup. Gio Bernard is the top dog for a not-so-great Bengals running game, but he is the guy, so that makes him attractive as a Flex who has a good shot of getting into the end zone. Same for Darrell Henderson with the Rams.

Top DraftKings RB1 Value

1. Miles Sanders

2. David Montgomery

3. Austin Ekeler

4. Antonio Gibson

Top FanDuel RB1 Value

1. Austin Ekeler

2. David Montgomery

3. Miles Sanders

4. Antonio Gibson

Top DraftKings RB2 Value

1. Melvin Gordon

2. Kareem Hunt

3. Le’Veon Bell

4. JK Dobbins

5. David Johnson

Top FanDuel RB2 Value

1. Melvin Gordon

2. Kareem Hunt

3. JK Dobbins

4. Le’Veon Bell

5. David Johnson

DraftKings & FanDuel Value Flex RB

1. JD McKissic

2. Giovanni Bernard

3. Darrell Henderson

4. Ito Smith

Wide Receiver Notes

There just aren’t a lot of guys with value who qualify as WR1s this week. That makes players like Tyreek Hill, even with his tweaked hammy, and Calvin Ridley, despite a bad matchup, worth considering as pay-up players in DraftKings. You have a few more options in FanDuel as D.K. Metcalf figures to bounce back despite a very tough matchup against the Rams’ Jalen Ramsey. His Vegas prop line is 4.5 catches and 70 yards. We think he surpasses that this time around after a tough outing the first time vs. the Rams. Allen Robinson is the best bet at WR1 since Keenan Allen is doubtful with an injury. Robert Woods is a solid pick in both platforms against a suspect Seattle secondary. Josh Reynolds is a sneaky super-value play as he had 10 targets the last time the Rams played Seattle, and obviously Los Angeles needs to change things after last week’s debacle vs. the Jets. And if Allen doesn’t play, Mike Williams should end up getting his massive number of targets against a beat-up Denver secondary. Reynolds and Williams are late additions to our value list. Brandin Cooks is a WR1 right now for Houston who is disguised and priced as a WR2. He has WR 1 upside and is a great value selection this week.

Top DraftKings WR1 Value

1. Robert Woods

Top FanDuel WR1 Value

1. Allen Robinson

2. Robert Woods

3. Keenan Allen – if he plays

4. DK Metcalf

Top DraftKings WR2 Value

1. Cooper Kupp

2. Diontae Johnson

3. Brandin Cooks

4. Amari Cooper

5. Robby Anderson

Top FanDuel WR2 Value

1. Cooper Kupp

2. Diontae Johnson

3. Brandin Cooks

4. Robby Anderson

5. DJ Moore

WR3/Flex Value WR FD & DK

1. Sammy Watkins

2. Marquise Brown

3. Jamison Crowder

4. Tee Higgins

5. Cee Dee Lamb

Super Value Flex WR Value Plays FD & DK

1. Darnell Mooney

2. Tim Patrick

3. Josh Reynolds

4. Denzel Mims

5. Alshon Jeffrey

Top DraftKings TE Value

1. Dallas Goedert

2. Logan Thomas

3. Noah Fant

4. Austin Hooper

Top FanDuel TE Value

1. Logan Thomas

2. Noah Fant

3. Dallas Goedert

4. Austin Hooper

5. Dalton Schultz

Super Value Flex TE Value Plays FD & DK

1. Hayden Hurst – DK only

2. Dalton Schultz – DK only

3. Tyler Eifert – DK & FD

Week 17 Suggested Core Players & Lineups

DraftKings Players to Consider in All Lineups

RB – Kareem Hunt, WR – Brandon Cooks, TE – Dallas Goedert, D – Washington

FanDuel Players to Consider in All Lineups

RB – David Montgomery, WR – Robert Woods, TE – Logan Thomas., D – Steelers

DraftKings Value Lineup

QB – Deshaun Watson

RB – David Montgomery

RB – Gio Bernard

WR – Robby Anderson

WR – Brandin Cooks

WR – Amari Cooper

TE – Dallas Goedert

Flex – Kareem Hunt

D – Washington

FanDuel Value Lineup

QB – Lamar Jackson

RB – David Montgomery

RB – JK Dobbins

WR – Allen Robinson

WR – Robert Woods

WR – Jamison Crowder

TE – Logan Thomas

Flex – JD McKissic

D – Steelers

DraftKings Stacked Lineup

QB – Patrick Mahomes

RB – David Montgomery

RB – JD McKissic

WR – Sammy Watkins

WR – Robert Woods

WR – Darnell Money

TE – Travis Kelce

Flex – Gio Bernard

D – Chiefs

FanDuel Stacked Lineup

QB – Deshaun Watson

RB – David Montgomery

RB – Melvin Gordon

WR – Brandin Cooks

WR – Cooper Kupp

WR – Sammy Watkins

TE – Austin Hooper

Flex – Gio Bernard

D – Washington

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