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By Scotty P. - SPM Staff
Doing our homework becomes even more important for Week 5 of the National Football League season as injuries mount and new faces step to the forefront.
We have different quarterbacks now in New York, Pittsburgh, Miami and New England. Also in New Orleans, but we are not going to regurgitate more thoughts on Andy Dalton after all these years.
Excluding the Steelers, who face a tough Buffalo defense, the Jets Dolphins and Patriots all have favorable offensive matchups. That doesn't mean we should just rush out and start their QBs, WRs, RBs and TEs as value players in DFS or just thrust them into our full-season starting lineups, though.
First, let's take a look at the Jets' trio of talented, young receivers. All are bargain priced in DFS, coming in at or below $6,000, and all are worth of consideration in your full-season lineups in WR2, WR3 or Flex spots. (Pro tip: the Jets are actually pretty good on offense, with Breece Hall emerging as the bell cow and Michael Carter being a more than solid multi-purpose and change-of-pace back to go along with the WRs and TE Tyler Conklin).
Anyway, it would be easy to look at that receiving group and just plug Garrett Wilson into any and all lineups. Wilson is excellent and is going to be a very good NFL player for a long time, but with the QB switch from Joe Flacco to Zach Wilson, is the absolute best option from the trio for fantasy purposes? Garrett Wilson clearly had emerged as the No. 1 option with Flacco at the helm, receiving 11 and 14 targets, respectively in Weeks 2 and 3. Last week, however, his targets dropped to a still-solid 8. Meanwhile, Corey Davis, whose targets had been hovering around 5 for the first three weeks, saw 10 targets in the win vs. Pittsburgh. Elijah Moore, another talented young wideout, appeared to be gelling with Flacco, who targeted him 9 times in Week 3, but his looks dropped to 4 in Week 4. He was targeted a combined 12 times in Weeks 1 and 2.
What does this all mean?
Well, the sample side with Wilson at QB is very small, and our strategies with these players will continue to evolve as the situation in New York unfolds, but we can only work with the information we have in making our Week 5 decisions. Looking at the bigger picture and evaluating the team's game plans to date, we see that Moore ranks fifth among all receivers in snaps played and 33rd in targets. Wilson is 49th in snaps and ninth in targets. Davis is 21st in snaps and 32nd in targets.
The coaches obviously like Moore and use him in more situations. That means he probably is the best blocker and runs precise routes. His targets are probably more scripted, meaning that he likely gets most of the targets in quick game when the coaches want to get the ball out of the QBs hands quickly for a sure 5- or 6-yard gain.
Davis obviously plays quite a bit, too. Wilson is efficient and gets more opportunities in fewer snaps, so he probably has a knack for getting open and runs shorter and intermediate routes. Any QB with is going to throw to the most-open receiver, and younger QBs are likely to be more conservative in the throws they make. Davis ranks sixth in yards per catch, so he's the deep guy, while Moore is the solid all-around dependable receiver. Wilson is 51st in yards per catch, and Moore is 49th.
Davis is going to be more boom or bust than the other two but will have the highest ceiling, while Wilson will have the highest floor and Moore's status in any lineup probably should be based on game script and his individual matchup. Most of us thought the Jets would be playing from behind a lot this year, which makes all three guys worth playing if that's the predicted game script, but New York has managed to start the season 2-2 and has a bright future if Zach Wilson continues to improve and the offensive line can come together.
As odd as it sounds, the Jets have as much young offensive talent as any team in the league. Zach Wilson has a golden opportunity to grow surrounded by a core of promising young prospects. They will be a fun team to watch going forward, with as many as five viable fantasy options in a given week.
We will have to see what happens with Teddy Bridgewater and the Dolphins. He is surrounded by proven, elite offensive talent on the outside, but both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are questionable this week. Bridgewater should be able to manage games and let his receivers get yards after the catch, but running back Raheem Mostert figures to benefit the most from the QB change. Mostert is value priced at $5,800 this week after seeing his opportunities jump from 10 in Week 3 to 18 in Week 4 with Bridgewater in the mix.
He's worth a Flex spot this week at the least, and wide receiver Trent Sherfield also might be worth a shot in the Flex at a super-value price of $5,000. He had 1 target in Week 3 and 6 last week.
We like Kenny Pickett and George Pickens. Pittsburgh is doing the right thing. Pickens had his best week yet with Pickett at the helm last week, and we really like him for the rest of the season. This is not the week for either guy, however, as Buffalo presents an ominous challenge. Maybe give Pickens a shot in one lineup if you stack the Bills.
The most interesting situation is in New England as Bailey Zappe had a strong debut last week in a tough environment against a very good Green Bay team. We are not ready to jump on the Zappe train and proclaim him to be the next Tom Brady quite yet, but he's worth trying in one DFS lineup this week against a terrible Lions defense.
We do recommend using either of the Patriots' running backs in multiple lineups this week as both Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris have received between 14 and 19 opportunities the past two weeks. Bill Belichick won a game in Buffalo last year with Mac Jones throwing 7 passes, so he doesn't mind grinding it out and mucking games up by pounding the rock. That seems to be the most likely plan of attack this week - and until Jones is back at the helm - as the GOAT among coaches doesn't figure to force his young QB into situations he may not be able to handle.
The two RBs compliment each other well, with Harris getting the goal-line touches and Stevenson getting more targets through the air. Both are strong runners. And who knows, Belichick never shows his hand, so maybe he does have the next Brady and just isn't letting on. Either way, the Patriots are good enough on both sides of the ball to be competitive and probably hover close enough to .500 to be in the postseason hunt come Week 18.
Here are a look of players we like in DFS and fantasy this week:
Top-Tier Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts - Eagles - $8,600
Philly has a good matchup, and we recommend Hurts, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders all getting looks.
Josh Allen - Bills - $9,000
Pittsburgh's secondary has struggled. Allen will run. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis should be options. We even like Singletary this week. Hurts is a better value, but you can't go wrong here.
Justin Herbert - Chargers - $8,200
The problem with Brady is that every pundit on the planet is on him this week, so he will be highly owned against an Atlanta team he has owned fin the past and that isn't great defensively. We also still not are sold on Tampa Bay's offense right now with all the moving parts created by having so many injuries and other issues. He's worth a shot in a stack with Evans, Godwin or Gage in some lineups, though.
Mid-Tier QBs
Tom Brady - Bucs - $7,800
The problem with Brady is that every pundit on the planet is on him this week, so he will be highly owned against an Atlanta team he has dominated in the past and that isn't great defensively. We also still not are sold on Tampa Bay's offense right now with all the moving parts created by having so many injuries and other issues. He's worth a shot in a stack with Evans, Godwin or Gage in at least one lineup, though.
Value QBs
Zach Wilson - Jets - $7,200
Ryan Tannehill - Titans - $7,000
Carson Wentz - Commanders - $6,800
We may or may not be suggesting a Titans and/or Commanders DFS stack this week. Sometimes bad teams end up in shootouts when they play other bad teams, right? The Commanders have much more skill-position talent, so maybe if you go with Wentz, McLaurin and Logan Thomas on one side and come back with Derrick Henry on the other that could be a win? Washington is good against the run, though, so how about Robert Woods? He's been getting better every week and has a great matchup.
Super-Value QBs
Teddy Bridgewater - $6,400
Bailey Zappe - $6,300
Top-Tier Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown - Eagles - $8,000
Stefon Diggs - Bills - $8,000
Tyreek Hill - Dolphins - $8,400
Mid-Tier WRs
Jaylen Waddle - Dolphins - $7,700
Mike Evans - Bucs - $7,800
Mike Williams - Chargers - $7,400
Deebo Samuel - 49ers - $7,300
Chris Godwin - Bucs - $7,000 (love him)
Value WRs
Terry McLaurin - Commanders - $6,500
Corey Davis - Jets - $5,900
Robert Woods - Titans - $5,900
Curtis Samuel - Commanders - $5,800
DeVante Parker - Patriots - $5,700
Super-Value WRs
Jarvis Landry - Saints - $5,500
George Pickens - Steelers - $5,500
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - Titans - $5,400
Elijah Moore - Jets - $5,300
Marcus Calloway - Saints - $5,100
Trent Sherfield - Dolphins - $5,000
Top-Tier Running Backs
Nick Chubb - Browns - $9,400
Austin Ekeler - Chargers - $9,000
Mid-Tier RBs
James Robinson - Jaguars - $8,000
Miles Sanders - Eagles - $7,600
Dameon Pierce - Texans - $7,500
Damien Harris - Patriots - $7,200
Alvin Kamara - Saints - $7,000 (risky but huge ceiling today)
Value RBs
Breece Hall - Jets - $6,600
Jeff Wilson - 49ers - $6,500
Super-Value RBs
Rhamondre Stevenson - Patriots - $6,000
Kareem Hunt - Browns - $5,900
Devin Singletary - Bills - $6,000
Raheem Mostert - Dolphins - $5,800
Michael Carter - Jets - $5,500
Top-Tier TE
TJ Hockenson - Lions - $7,000 (price too high, regression coming)
Mid-Tier TEs
Dallas Goedert - Eagles - $6,100
Zach Ertz - Cardinals - $5,900
David Njoku - Browns - $5,700
Value TE
Tyler Conklin - Jets - $5,300
Logan Thomas - Commanders - $5,200
Super-Value TE
Juwan Johnson - Saints - $4,700