By Gerry Love - SPM Fantasy Staff
SportsSpectrum.com photo
Week 8 of the 2020 National Football League season is just one of those weeks.
Injuries. Illness. Byes. Bad weather. Bad coaches (oops, that's every week).
All those elements are present as we try to piece together DFS lineups that can put us in the money, which makes having a good feel for the top-value players even more important. It's weeks like this that see star players' salaries inflate to levels that make many people shy away from them. One line of thinking is to spend a high percentage of the salary cap on players like Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Travis Kelce while spending less on a quarterback and looking for the super-value plays in the RB2, WR3 and flex spots.
Last week, if you went with our top QB plays, which included Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow, you would have had three of the best Week 7 performers sitting at the top of your lineups at value prices. We also got big performances from underpriced players such as Antonio Gibson, Gio Bernard, Kareem Hunt, Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson, allowing us to surround them with guys like Calvin Ridley, Alvin Kamara and Julio Jones.
If you use our top-value picks to open up salary that you can spend on the "chalk" players, and you pick the right top-tier guys, you can find yourself landing in the big money. Still, the bulk of our value picks paired with even average top-tier player selections should earn you a small profit. Several of our lineups end up in the money on a regular basis.
Where you get hurt is when you pick high-priced players who bomb or get injured, but that's the nature of the game. The goal is to put yourself in the best position to be successful. Try to play single-entry games or higher-priced, high-payout games that will prohibit your opponents from entering a ton of lineups. Or consider 50/50 single-entry contests that carry a fee of $25 or more and with at least 100 contestants to maximize your chances. You can play a bunch of other smaller-priced games and get your money back on the 50/50 no matter how you do.
There are essentially two strategies on weeks like this:
1) Try to find what we call the super-value players on defense and at TE, flex and WR3. Then stack, stack, stack the rest of your lineup with superstars and higher-priced players with the best matchups.
2) Go with value plays throughout your lineup and hope that consistency pays off.
The second method is more likely to secure you a small profit and less likely to hit big. But a lot of lineups that make a little money can turn into a lot of money pretty quickly.
No matter which route you choose, we've got you covered below with suggested core players, suggested lineups and listings of several top-value players at each position.
Before we turn you loose, though, don't discount the weather. At least three locations are expecting cold temperatures, precipitation (yes rain OR snow) and winds above 30 mph today: Buffalo, Cleveland and Chicago.
Rain usually doesn't have that much of an effect on the passing game as the balls tend to get tacky and a wet surface can make it harder for defensive backs to stick with the receivers who know where they are going. Snow, as we saw last week in the Broncos-Chiefs game, won't necessarily slow a high-powered offense too much unless it's a blizzard.
Wind, however, paired with snow or rain, can have a huge impact. Expect running backs at windy venues to get more touches than usual, and consider playing possession receivers who might get more targets without the big-play upside of the deep threats. Remember, it's PPR and every catch is a point. Players who move the chains and get a lot of targets likely will see more balls thrown their way and could approach double-figure points on catches alone.
Obviously, bad weather becomes more of a factor as the season progresses, but we're already into November, so it's something that DFS players should be considering on a weekly basis. Other venues that figure to be looking at tricky conditions today include Green Bay (25 mph winds), Baltimore (10 mph winds and rain) and Cincinnati (20 mph winds). From a points perspective, consistent winds of more than 12 mph have shown to have a slightly negative impact on total points scored over the years.
Our suggested lineups and value picks are below. Good luck!
DraftKings Core Selections to Consider for All Lineups:
Ryan Tannehill QB, Kareen Hunt RB, Tyreek Hill WR, Richard Rodgers TE
FanDuel Core Selections to Consider for All Lineups:
Tom Brady QB, Kareen Hunt RB, Tyreek Hill WR, Richard Rodgers TE
DraftKings All-Value Lineup
Carson Wentz – QB
Kareem Hunt – RB
Jonathan Taylor – RB
Tyreek Hill – WR
Mike Evans – WR
Travis Fulgham – WR
Richard Rodgers – TE
Myles Gaskin – Flex
Saints – D
FanDuel All-Value Lineup
Carson Wentz – QB
Kareem Hunt – RB
Boston Scott – RB
Tyreek Hill – WR
Mike Evans – WR
Tyler Boyd – WR
Richard Rodgers – TE
James Conner – Flex
Saints – D
DraftKings Stack Lineup
Jimmy Garoppolo – QB
Derrick Henry – RB
Kareem Hunt – RB
Davante Adams – WR
Brandon Aiyuk – WR
Henry Ruggs III – WR
Harrison Bryant – TE
AJ Green – Flex
Lions – D
FanDuel Stack Lineup
David Carr – QB
Derrick Henry – RB
Jonathan Taylor – RB
Tyreek Hill – WR
Davante Adams – WR
Cole Beasley – WR
Harrison Bryant– TE
Nelson Agholor – Flex
Lions – D
Here is our complete ranking of value picks for Week 8:
Week 8 Top Value DraftKings Quarterbacks
1. Carson Wentz
2. Ryan Tannehill
3. Joe Burrow
4. Baker Mayfield
Week 8 Top Value FanDuel Quarterbacks
1. Ryan Tannehill
2. Carson Wentz
3. Tom Brady
4. Justin Herbert
5. Joe Burrow
6. Derek Carr
7. Baker Mayfield
Week 8 DraftKings Super Value QB Plays
1. Jimmy Garoppolo
2. Derek Carr
Week 8 FanDuel Super Value QB Plays
1. Jimmy Garoppolo
Week 8 RB 1 DraftKings Top Value
1. Kareem Hunt
2. Jonathan Taylor
3. Boston Scott
4. James Conner
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Week 8 RB 1 FanDuel Top Value
1. Kareem Hunt
2. Jonathan Taylor
3. Clyde Edwards Helaire
Week 8 RB2 DraftKings Top Value
1. Gio Bernard
2. Myles Gaskin
3. Ronald Jones
4. Melvin Gordon
5. D'Andre Swift
Week 8 RB 2 FanDuel Top Value
1. Boston Scott
2. James Conner
3. Darrel Henderson
4. Ronald Jones
5. D'Andre Swift
6. Melvin Gordon
Week 8 Value Flex RB
1. Myles Gaskin - DK only
2. Le'Veon Bell
3. Leonard Fournette
4. Damien Harris
5. La'Mical Perine
6. David Montgomery - FD only
Week 8 WR 1 DraftKings Top Value
1. Tyreek Hill
2. DK Metcalf
3. Keenan Allen
4. Kenny Golladay
5. Robert Woods
Week 8 WR 1 FanDuel Top Value
1. Tyreek Hill
2. Keenan Allen
3. Mike Evans
4. Tyler Lockett
5. AJ Brown
6. Adam Thielen
7. DK Metcalf
Week 8 WR 2 DraftKings Top Value
1. Mike Evans
2. Tee Higgins
3. Diontae Johnson
4. Corey Davis
5. DeVante Parker
Week 8 WR 2 FanDuel Top Value
1. Travis Fulgham
2. Tyler Boyd
3. Justin Jefferson
4. Tee Higgins
5. Diontae Johnson
Week 8 WR3/Flex Options DK & FD
1. Brandon Aiyuk
2. Darius Slayton
3. AJ Green
4. Mike Williams
5. Scotty Miller
6. Henry Ruggs III
Week 8 TE DraftKings Top Value
1. Jonnu Smith
2. Rob Gronkowski
3. Hunter Henry
4. Richard Rodgers
5. Jared Cook
6. Jimmy Graham
Week 8 TE FanDuel Top Value
1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Hunter Henry
3. Richard Rodgers
4. Jonnu Smith
5. Jared Cook
6. Jimmy Graham
Super Value TE DK & FD
1. Harrison Bryant