The Bubble Watch continues.
Last night, New Mexico survived a lackluster performance at home and averted disaster by coming away with a four-point win vs. Wyoming after trailing for about 39 minutes. While the close victory didn't propel the Lobos up our Power 75 rankings, by not losing they at least maintained their tenuous hold on one of the last NCAA Tournament berths if they don't win the Mountain West Tournament.
Wake Forest wasn't as lucky, however, as the Demon Deacons dropped a two-point decision at home vs. Florida State in a disastrous result. Some bracketologists had them in the field before that setback, and we had them close, but now they are out and may need a miracle to get back into consideration.
Arkansas, which has steadily been climbing our rankings and is in our latest tourney field, beat LSU by 12 at home. Surging Ohio State, which is pushing for a top five or six seed, hammered Washington at home, 93-69. VCU, also on the edge if the Rams can't win the Atlantic 10 Tournament, beat an undervalued and tough George Washington team on the road, 80-72. Rutgers has been fading for most of the last month and probably is out barring a miracle after a bad 84-73 home loss to Iowa Wednesday. Oklahoma wasn't expected to win at Missouri, but a 24-point loss leaves the Sooners barely clinging to one of the final spots, while Villanova made a case for staying in the hunt with a big 73-71 home win vs. a St. John's team that was trying to move into No.2 or 3 seed territory.
Also, as far as mid-majors are concerned, Missouri Valley Conference-leader Drake improved to 23-2 overall and 13-2 in league play, starting to build a case for an at-large bid if disaster strikes in the MVC Tournament, with a 84-77 win on the road against a pretty good Illinois State team. We still have Drake a pretty good distance out of the mix at this point, but the MVC is an undervalued conference and the Bulldogs are making it look like a cakewalk. Any team with 23 wins deserves respect and consideration as they can only go out and beat the teams that are on their schedule.
Tonight the college hoops slate has a decidedly mid-major flavor, but there is an important matchup in the Big Ten as Maryland, which steadily has been climbing the rankings for weeks and is a top 20 team offensively and defensively according to most models, travels to Nebraska to face the Cornhuskers. Nebraska also has been holding its own in the rankings, and we currently have them at No. 39 and in the tournament. A win would go a long way toward securing their bid, and a close loss would be fine for them. They can't afford a double-digit loss or a setback in which they aren't really competitive most of the game, however.
The Huskers are a slight favorite at home, and we all know the stats about unranked teams that are favored at home vs. ranked opponents (hint: they win most of the time).
Probably the biggest mid-major tilt on the slate tonight goes down in Wilmington. N.C., as two of the top three teams in the Coastal - NOT Colonial - Athletic Association face off. UNCW is 20-6 overall and 10-2 in the league, while Charleston is 19-6 and 9-3.
While those two favorites have been cruising along, a Towson team that got off to a rough start has flown under the radar and built an 11-1 league record. As these two prepare to battle it out for second place, the Tigers are a 7-point home favorite against underachieving Delaware. Assuming that Towson takes care of business Thursday, a loss could prove fatal to Charleston's hopes of earning the top seed for the CAA Tournament. If the Seahawks fall at home, neither team would be in dire straits, but Towson's chances of finishing first would be enhanced considerably.
Towson has four games remaining after tonight, none against teams named Charleston or North Carolina Wilmington. A loss by the Tigers ensures a little February chaos down the stretch in the CAA, and isn't that what we love about college hoops? Of course, no matter what happens, the only way any of these teams makes the NCAA Tournament is by winning the conference tournament title. That should make the CAA Tourney one of the most exciting and tension-filled events of the postseason.
UNCW is a surprising 6.5-point favorite vs. Charleston in a matchup that we think should be a one-possession game.
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 2/13
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
UMASS Lowell money line -240 vs. Albany (70% win probability) - LOSS
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 2/13
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
TBD
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 2/13
Charleston +6.5 at UNCW - LOSS
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 234-78 (75.0%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they are 31-2.
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 2/13
UMass Lowell - LOSS
Towson - WIN
Tennessee State - WIN
Northern Colorado - WIN
Queens - WIN
Fairleigh Dickinson - WIN
Cal Poly SLO - WIN
Appalachian State - WIN
NBA:
TBD
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
709-543-17 (56.6%)
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Last 7 days: 57-43-2 (57.0%)
Last 28 days: 266-190-8 (58.3%)
Last 62 days: 567-413-15 (57.9%)
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 2/13
Campbell +4.5 at Northeastern - LOSS
James Madison money line -160 at Georgia Southern - WIN
Appalachian State -8..5 at Coastal Carolina - WIN
William & Mary money line -130 at Hofstra - WIN
Jacksonville State money line +100 vs. Sam Houston - LOSS
Omaha +9.5 at South Dakota State - LOSS
Nebraska money line -125 vs. Maryland - LOSS
Liberty money line -155 at New Mexico State - WIN
UC San Diego -12.5 at UC Bakersfield - WIN
Pacific +11 at Loyola Marymount - WIN
San Francisco +14 at Gonzaga - WIN
Longwood +10.5 at High Point - WIN
New Hampshire +13.5 at Vermont - LOSS
Mercyhurst +12.5 at Central Connecticut - WIN
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