StatLogic Sports First Glance Week 6 Updated NFL Power Ratings
- Scott L.
- 7 days ago
- 5 min read

Every Monday night, as soon as the last National Football League game of the week concludes, we update and post our NFL Power Ratings in real time based on the week's results to date, past accumulated data, the eye test and injuries. This is the initial process we go through each week before posting our final updated ratings every Thursday.
The reality the last two weeks as far as the NFL is concerned is that our edges have performed terribly. Just like at the beginning of the season when data is scarce, when there are massive injuries across the league - especially when many key players are impacted - it can take few weeks for our ratings to adapt and correct themselves. That hasn't happened across the board, but our algorithm that produces the bets we recommend for our clients continues to be successful because that is strictly a math-based, unbiased formula that doesn't even consider games with impact injuries.
Every algorithm selection gets run through a strict set of rules and guidelines. If key players are injured or there are multiple injuries, the game just gets thrown out. We don't consider it. Period.
In an effort to provide free information for people who come to our website and satisfy a larger number of folks who crave a little more action, we provide betting edges and other information. But as we always say, those edges are "bet at your own risk."
The edges are part of the process in which we narrow down the games we will run through the algorithm, and the first step in that process is compiling these power ratings that are then tweaked based on market data, sportsbook opinion, injuries and other information right up until kickoff.
On Sunday morning as the weekly inactive players are reported, the games that qualify are run through our algorithm and usually one or two "recommended" bets are produced and sent to our customers. These selections have won at nearly a 65 percent rate for two decades.
Some weeks there may be one or two recommended selections, while other weeks there may be none. Generally, we only recommend games that have a win probability of 70 percent or better, although sometimes we will release "bonus bets" that are 65 percent or better and meet our strict requirements.
Understand that when a key player is hurt and out for the remainder of the season, it doesn't mean we will never recommend a game that includes that team. But it does take several weeks of data collected without that player in the lineup before we are confident in its accuracy.
Let's take a look at the New York Giants as an example. They lost their top receiver and changed quarterbacks in the middle of the game last week. The team rallied around the situation and won a game that it really had no business winning thanks also to a lackluster performance from an opponent that had traveled 3,000 miles to play. With Malik Nabers out and Jaxson Dart named the starting quarterback for Week 5, we knew that the Giants game at New Orleans automatically would be eliminated from consideration.
The Cleveland Browns traveled to London to take on a Minnesota Vikings team that has been playing without its starting quarterback for nearly a month now. While we probably have enough of a sample on the Vikings with Caron Wentz at the helm to consider their games again, Cleveland started rookie QB Dillon Gabriel for the first time. That game automatically was off the board for us as far as being considered as a recommended selection.
Partially because of the massive injuries, we had no recommended NFL selection for Week 5, and the volatility in the league right now has been reflected in our NFL betting edges, which have performed poorly the last two weeks.
That said, while we had a slightly below .500 week with our college football edges for CFB Week 6, they have won at a 60 percent rate over the past three weeks. And the bets we have been recommending to clients this football season continue to pay off as we are up more than 11 units since Sept. 1.
We need to do a better job of filtering our betting edges and the other free information we post for the general public on this site. We owe that to our followers, and the bottom line is no one is going to trust us enough to become a customer if our free information isn't solid.
That likely will lead to fewer games being posted in the short term, which might be frustrating to some, but the reality is that being a successful sports bettor ultimately comes down to being disciplined and taking a longer-term approach instead of placing volume bets. While having more action might be fun to some folks, winning is a lot more fun. Trust us on that.
That's why we are very particular about the bets we recommend and why we've produced an annual ROI for our longer-term customers that matches or exceeds investment opportunities that are currently available.
One area in which we always have been very successful is with our prop bets. We've been posting occasional "Prime Time Props" for the Sunday, Monday and Thursday night NFL games on Twitter and BlueSky. They've done very well, but like our other recommended picks, we don't just post all of them for free. Those selections are not based on any algorithm but instead come from the fantasy football side of our business. But just like our recommended game picks, we are very particular about which player props we recommend and only send out a few each week.
Here are our 2025 NFL player prop results:
10/6 Brashard Smith OVER 8.5 yards receiving -118 (WIN)
10/6 Tyquan Thornton OVER 12.5 yard receiving -110 (WIN)
10/5 Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 28.5 yards rushing -118 (WIN)
10/5 Marvin Harrison OVER 51.5 yards receiving -115 (WIN)
9/29 Darren Waller OVER 9.5 yards receiving -112 (WIN)
9/28 Jonathan Taylor OVER 11.5 yards receiving -110 (LOSS)
9/25 Tory Horton OVER 23.5 yards receiving -135 (LOSS)
9/21 Isiah Pacheco OVER 42.5 yard rushing -113 (WIN)
9/18 Dalton Kincaid OVER 33.5 yards receiving boosted to +134 (WIN)
9/18 Dalron Kincaid OVER 32.5 yards receiving -110 (WIN)
9/15 Nico Collins OVER 73.5 yards receiving -112 (LOSS)
9/14 Bijan Robinson OVER 23.5 yards receiving -112 (WIN)
9/11 Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 38.5 yards rushing -112 (LOSS)
9/7 Josh Allen & Lamar Jackson each 25+ yards rushing +150 (1/4 unit WIN)
9/8 Olamide Zaccheus OVER 21.5 yards receiving -112 (WIN)
2025 NFL Prop Record: 11-4 (73.3%)
StatLogic Sports First Glance Week 6 NFL Power Ratings
updated following MNF October 6
1 | 100 | Lions | 100 |
2 | 99.5 | Bills | 99.5 |
3 | 98.5 | Eagles | 98.5 |
4 | 98 | Colts | 98 |
5 | 97 | Buccaneers | 97 |
6 | 96.5 | Packers | 96.5 |
7 | 96 | 49ers | 96 |
8 | 95.5 | Rams | 95.5 |
9 | 95.5 | Broncos | 95.5 |
10 | 95.5 | Commanders | 95.5 |
11 | 95 | Jaguars | 95 |
12 | 94.5 | Chargers | 94.5 |
13 | 94 | Chiefs | 94 |
14 | 93.5 | Seahawks | 93.5 |
15 | 93.5 | Steelers | 93.5 |
16 | 93 | Vikings | 93 |
17 | 93 | Falcons | 93 |
18 | 92.5 | Texans | 92.5 |
19 | 92.5 | Patriots | 92.5 |
20 | 92.5 | Cowboys | 92.5 |
21 | 92 | Cardinals | 92 |
22 | 92 | Bears | 92 |
23 | 91 | Ravens | 91 |
24 | 90.5 | Panthers | 90.5 |
25 | 90.5 | Browns | 90.5 |
26 | 90 | Dolphins | 90 |
27 | 90 | Saints | 90 |
28 | 89.5 | Bengals | 89.5 |
29 | 89.5 | Giants | 89.5 |
30 | 89 | Raiders | 89 |
31 | 88.5 | Titans | 88.5 |
32 | 88 | Jets | 88 |