By Scott L. - SL Sports Staff
March is here, so let the madness begin. Down goes No. 1 Auburn at Texas A&M!
After the Tigers and Duke have spent the past several weeks trying to outdo each other at the top of the heap with dueling blowout wins, the Blue Devils inched ahead of Auburn in our Power 75 Rankings by .01 points after Texas A&M's upset of Auburn Tuesday.
Duke and Auburn have been head and shoulders above the rest of the pack this season and are locked into our NCAA Tournament field as the top two seeds. Period. End of story.
The conference tournaments likely will decide which team gets the eventual nod, but barring Auburn suffering a huge upset before the Big Dance, we don't see the Dukies pulling ahead of them on the Selection Committee's board given the Tigers' unprecedented record vs. Quad 1 opponents.
So, even though our Power 75 has Duke slightly in front - and we might make them the top seed if it was our decision - we feel that the Committee likely will anoint Auburn as the overall No. 1.
Likewise, Houston is locked int on the top line barring the Cougars suffering a terrible loss prior to or during the Big 12 Tournament. The other No. 1 seed, however, is up for grabs and may come down to which of the three contending SEC team decides to take the conference tourney seriously.
The jockeying for a No. 1 seed begins Wednesday night as our No. 5 Alabama hosts No. 4 Florida as 3- or 3.5-point favorites, depending on the book. Our numbers have Florida, Alabama and Tennessee separated by just 0.16 points, with Alabama .01 in front of sixth-ranked Tennessee despite falling to the Volunteers on a buzzer-beater Saturday.
That may seem unfair to Tennessee, but keep in mind that the numbers are based on many different factors, and home teams generally are expected to have a 2.5- or 3-point advantage, in head-to-head matchups. Thus, Alabama losing on the road by 3 on the final play of the game really didn't prove anything as far as the unbiased numbers are concerned, and the Crimson Tide have faced the nation's second-toughest schedule, according to KenPom.
A decisive victory by Alabama likely would push the Tide slightly in front of the Gators and back onto our No. 1 line. Meanwhile, the Vols head to Ole Miss Wednesday to take on the No. 24 Rebels in hopes of keeping pace with the winner of the 'Bama-Florida matchup.
In another important matchup with potential NCAA Tournament seeding implications - and affecting the race at the top of the Big Ten - No. 17 Michigan hosts No. 16 Maryland as a 2.5--point favorite with an opportunity to keep pace with No. 8 Michigan State at the top of the conference standings. MSU is 15-3 in league play, while the Wolverines are 14-4. Maryland is 12-6, two games behind Michigan and a half-game behind third-place Purdue.
Maryland's NCAA Tournament metrics are slightly better than Michigan's, and we would have the Terps as a slight favorite on a neutral court, so the Wolverines being 2.5-point favorites at homes makes sense. This one is too close to call for us, but whoever wins likely would move into the final No. 4 seed slot in our NCAA Tournament field with the loser landing at No. 5.
Will Michigan be looking ahead to its March 9 season finale at Michigan State? That is entirely possible, but the Wolverines must win Wednesday to have a shot at the regular-season championship, so this game is their most important to date. If Maryland hadn't been playing so well, this game would be more likely to be a look-ahead spot for the hosts, but we don't see that happening and expect the game to go down to the wire for the last regular-season home tilt of Michigan's season.
Also, the Wolverines have dropped their last two games against stronger opponents (Michigan State and Illinois) by double digits and struggled to an ugly win at Nebraska. They need to play well tonight to right the ship a bit heading into the huge game at MSU and the postseason.
Our updated Power 75 can be found at the bottom of the page, but first here is a look at what we think the NCAA Tournament field should look like:
Last Four Teams In
1) San Diego State
2) Texas
3) Indiana
4) Utah State
Last Four Byes
1) Arkansas
2) Boise State
3) West Virginia
4) Ohio State
Note: We are including conference-tournament favorites Memphis, VCU and New Mexico in our field and have each projected as a top-10 seed.
First Four Out
1) Oklahoma
2) Nebraska
3) Xavier
4) North Carolina
San Diego State is hanging on by a thread after Tuesday's loss at UNLV. Only recent bad performances by Oklahoma and Nebraska, along with North Carolina and Xavier's combined 2-19 record vs. Quad 1 foes, is keeping the Aztecs in the mix at the moment. From a Selection Committee standpoint, it also has been clear that the Mountain West has been a favorite of the Committee in the past.
Our current seed projections are what we think the seedings should be, not what we expect the Committee to do, however, and we still have SDSU in the field right now. Barely.
UNC has been red hot and is in position to make a push with a couple of late Quad 1 wins or maybe even just a win against Duke in the season finale. Xavier is in a similar position. If the Musketeers can manage two Quad 1 wins down the stretch they have a real shot at leapfrogging a team or two and joining the party. That will have to happen at the Big East tournament, though, as Xavier's last two regular-season games are tonight at Butler and March at vs. Providence.
Oklahoma must beat a Texas team coming off a huge win at No. 25 Mississippi State in what might amount to an NCAA Tournament play-in game in Austin March 8. A win vs. the Longhorns and upset of No. 12 Missouri tonight should do the trick for the Sooners. Oklahoma is a 4.5-point dog vs. the Tigers at home.
Meanwhile, Nebraska's double-overtime loss at No. 33 Ohio State Tuesday was a crushing setback, and the Cornhuskers only have a home game against a fading Iowa team remaining prior to the Big Ten Tourney. They will need a pretty deep postseason run to have a realistic shot at cracking the field.
StatLogic Sports Projected NCAA Tournament Seedings
1 - Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
2 - Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, Texas Tech
3 - St. John's, Arizona, Iowa State, Wisconsin
4 - Kentucky, Purdue, Missouri, Maryland
5 - Michigan, St. Mary's, Clemson, Texas A&M
6 - Marquette, Illinois, BYU, Louisville
7 - Kansas, UCLA, Oregon, Mississippi
8 - Gonzaga, Mississippi State, UConn, Baylor
9 - Memphis, VCU, Creighton, New Mexico
10 - Georgia, Vanderbilt, Ohio State, West Virginia
11 - Boise State, Arkansas, Utah State, Indiana, Texas, San Diego State
It's still a little early to spend a ton of time placing teams into regions and brackets given the number of upsets that are bound to happen and how much is likely to change during the next three weeks. As the tournament approaches we will start to make our projections based more on what the Selection Committee is likely to do, but for now we want to show who we think deserves to be in the final field of 68 teams.
StatLogic Sports NCAA Basketball Power 75 as of March 5
Rank | Team | Rate |
1 | Duke | 99.96 |
2 | Auburn | 99.95 |
3 | Houston | 99.55 |
4 | Florida | 98.41 |
5 | Alabama | 98.26 |
6 | Tennessee | 98.25 |
7 | Texas Tech | 95.81 |
8 | Michigan State | 95.73 |
9 | St. John's | 95.64 |
10 | Arizona | 95.59 |
11 | Purdue | 95.47 |
12 | Missouri | 95.46 |
13 | Iowa State | 95.34 |
14 | Wisconsin | 95.06 |
15 | Texas A&M | 95.06 |
16 | Maryland | 94.81 |
17 | Michigan | 94.17 |
18 | Kentucky | 94.12 |
19 | St. Mary's | 93.77 |
20 | Marquette | 93.65 |
21 | Clemson | 93.40 |
22 | Gonzaga | 93.32 |
23 | Illinois | 93.15 |
24 | Mississippi | 93.07 |
25 | Mississippi State | 92.99 |
26 | Kansas | 92.65 |
27 | BYU | 92.61 |
28 | UCLA | 92.23 |
29 | Oregon | 92.16 |
30 | Louisville | 92.13 |
31 | Uconn | 91.72 |
32 | Creighton | 91.54 |
33 | Ohio State | 91.42 |
34 | Baylor | 91.27 |
35 | Vanderbilt | 91.13 |
36 | Texas | 90.08 |
37 | VCU | 90.07 |
38 | Georgia | 89.42 |
39 | Arkansas | 89.41 |
40 | Memphis | 89.25 |
41 | Nebraska | 89.09 |
42 | New Mexico | 89.05 |
43 | Oklahoma | 88.96 |
44 | Cincinnati | 88.24 |
45 | West Virginia | 88.24 |
46 | Utah State | 88.21 |
47 | SMU | 88.15 |
48 | Indiana | 88.06 |
49 | Villanova | 87.89 |
50 | Boise State | 87.80 |
51 | Xavier | 87.77 |
52 | North Carolina | 87.49 |
53 | San Diego State | 87.01 |
54 | UC San Diego | 86.93 |
55 | Wake Forest | 86.16 |
56 | Kansas State | 85.80 |
57 | USC | 85.63 |
58 | Northwestern | 85.14 |
59 | Colorado State | 85.12 |
60 | Penn State | 85.10 |
61 | Rutgers | 85.10 |
62 | Santa Clara | 84.90 |
63 | Pittsburgh | 84.38 |
64 | South Carolina | 84.31 |
65 | Arizona State | 84.18 |
66 | McNeese State | 84.08 |
67 | Irvine | 83.97 |
68 | Iowa | 83.96 |
69 | Drake | 83.87 |
70 | Minnesota | 83.83 |
71 | North Texas | 83.70 |
72 | Nevada | 83.66 |
73 | LSU | 83.55 |
74 | Dayton | 83.49 |
75 | Butler | 83.37 |
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