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StatLogic Sports Selection Sunday NCAA College Basketball Bracketology



Final update made at 5:45 p.m. EDT March 15


Selection Sunday is here!


March arrived 15 days ago, and we are already deep into the madness. Highly regarded or top-seeded teams such as Florida, Miami University, Belmont, Utah Valley and St. Louis, among others, already have gone down during conference tournament play, so the Bracketology we present here today bears only a slight resemblance to what might have been posted previously.


Those types of upsets always ramp up the stress levels for teams barely clinging to the final available spots in the NCAA Tournament or just on the outside looking in. Victories today by Dayton over Akron in the Mid-America Conference or Wichita State over South Florida in the American Athletic Conference would be the worst possible scenarios for their opponents and teams such as San Diego State, Miami University. Texas, New Mexico, Missouri and Central Florida.


We also saw many of this year's Goliaths go down during the dog days of February and in early March, including Michigan, Duke, Houston, Florida, Arizona, UConn and Iowa State. The only undefeated team heading into postseason play was Miami University, but of course the RedHawks fell to UMass in the opening round of the MAC Tournament to make their Selection Sunday a lot more interesting but no less exciting.


Of those teams, Miami was the only one not assured of an NCAA Tournament bid, so now their fate is in the hands of a Selection Committee no one fully trusts. We feel strongly that they should be in and most of the college basketball analysts across the country seem to concur, but that isn't always a great sign this time of year.


That drama and uncertainty is what makes this next month one of the most exciting times of the year for sports fans. And now, as we have reached one of the most-anticipated days of the year, we are ready to unveil our almost-final version of StatLogic Sports Bracketoloy.


As part of our process this year, we have taken a new and unique approach, creating our own StatLogic Net Ratings (SLNet), which we can use in combination with our season-long power ratings and various other available metrics to paint a complete postseason portrait.


With so much data available at our fingertips, we thought it would be fun to take a three-pronged approach to our StatLogic Sports Bracketology. It includes


  • The Great 68

  • StatLogic Seeding

  • Committee Consensus


The Great 68

Our final edition of the StatLogic Sports Great 68 can be found below. While this may not be the 68 "best" teams in America, we believe these are the 68 teams that as of today would provide us with the most competitive tournament. We throw automatic bids out the window for this ranking and simply list the overall seeds from Nos. 1 through 68.


For this ranking, we consider a team's overall body of work first. To determine our "Body of Work" rating, we include our weekly power ratings for each week of the season, providing an indication of how a team has performed along every step of its journey. We also consider our most recent rating, which provides an indication of a team's current form and how it has performed over the past four weeks. Additional metrics such as the NCAA Net ratings, KenPom Ratings, Haslametrics, etc. are considered in computing a team's overall body of work.


The "Body of Work" metric then is used in conjunction with our own SLNet rating to determine the 68 teams that would provide us with the best possible NCAA Tournament field. The SLNet rating simply is a way to quantify the quality of a team's wins and losses, which by default rewards teams that play well against more challenging schedules.


Our one hard-and-fast rule at the beginning of this process was that no team with a negative SLNet rating would be considered. When it came down to the final spot, however, there were no viable teams with positive SLNet ratings left, and Texas clearly was the most-qualified team to be in the Great 68.



The Great 68 as of March 15, 2026


Team

Seed

Body of Work Rating

SLNet

Arizona

1

99.278

104

Duke

2

99.528

101

Michigan

3

100.611

110

Houston

4

97.889

71

Florida

5

97.944

68

Iowa State

6

97.139

51

UConn

7

96.806

83

Purdue

8

97.139

49

St. John's

9

94.417

70

Illinois

10

96.472

39

Michigan State

11

95.139

47

Gonzaga

12

96.389

68

Vanderbilt

13

94.889

48

Virginia

14

92.500

74

Arkansas

15

92.806

41

Nebraska

16

93.000

36

Wisconsin

17

90.694

34

Alabama

18

94.556

45

Kansas

19

92.583

36

Texas Tech

20

93.306

34

Louisville

21

93.722

34

Tennessee

22

94.111

15

Kentucky

23

92.083

19

BYU

24

93.944

25

UCLA

25

89.083

35

Miami

26

89.694

32

St. Mary's

27

90.444

46

North Carolina

28

90.806

36

Clemson

29

89.417

26

Iowa

30

92.356

25

Villanova

31

88.889

49

Ohio State

32

88.944

23

Georgia

33

90.694

12

St. Louis

34

89.528

32

Utah State

35

88.528

52

NC State

36

89.750

24

Texas A&M

37

90.194

14

Santa Clara

38

86.389

33

TCU

39

86.250

14

San Diego State

40

85.944

22

USF

41

86.194

3

VCU

42

86.500

14

SMU

43

87.556

19

Miami Ohio

44

79.389

1

Seton Hall

45

85.806

29

Missouri

46

87.722

2

Oklahoma

47

86.917

6

UCF

48

84.639

6

New Mexico

49

84.889

13

Texas

50

88.944

-4

Virginia Tech

51

84.917

11

Indiana

52

89.667

5

Auburn

53

90.194

4

Washington

54

86.139

9

Baylor

55

87.500

24

Stanford

56

83.756

3

Creighton

57

83.889

8

Boise State

58

83.228

20

Dayton

59

83.028

12

Colorado

60

82.778

20

Belmont

61

82.083

19

USC

62

84.111

12

Oklahoma State

63

82.861

10

Wake Forest

64

82.972

4

Cal

65

81.750

2

McNeese State

66

82.750

2

Butler

67

82.972

1

Arizona State

68

82.583

1



Before we take a deeper dive into our NCAA Tournament Bracketology exercise, here is a look at the automatic qualifiers to date:



NCAA Tournament Automatic Qualifiers to Date

LIU-Brooklyn (NEC)

Tennessee State (OVC)

Northern Iowa (MVC)

High Point (Big South)

Queens (ASun)

North Dakota State (Summit)

Furman (Southern)

Wright State (Horizon)

Hofstra (CAA)

Troy (Sun Belt)

Siena (MAAC)

Gonzaga (WCC)

UMBC (America East)

Idaho (Big Sky)

Howard (MEAC)

McNeese (Southland)

Arizona (Big 12)

Lehigh (Patriot)

Utah State (Mountain West)

St. John's (BIG EAST)

Prairie View (SWAC)

Akron (MAC)

Kennesaw (C-USA)

Hawaii (Big West)

Duke (ACC)

Cal Baptist (WAC)

Penn (Ivy League)

VCU (Atlantic 10)

Arkansas (SEC)

Purdue (Big Ten)

South Florida (American)



StatLogic Seeding

For our version of Bracketology, StatLogic Seeding simply shows how we would seed the tournament given the 68-team format and all the parameters the Selection Committee has to consider. We factor in the auto-bids, the First Four and everything else that the Selection Committee hast to weigh and use our metrics to fill the bracket the way we think it SHOULD be filled.


Teams in bold still could be impacted by Selection Sunday game results, while teams in bold parentheses might be eliminated or moved in pending the results of their conference championship games.



StatLogic Seeding

Final update made at 5:45 p.m. EDT March 15


The reasoning behind our ranking of the top two seed lines is pretty simple.


When factoring in everything, Arizona won the regular-season and tournament championships in the best conference. The Wildcats are fully healthy and are playing their best right now. They resemble last year's Florida team in terms of their recent form entering the tournament. Duke is missing a key player but has been very consistent throughout the season. A dominant win vs. Virginia Saturday might have made a difference. Michigan was dominant early in the season but has leveled off lately and is not playing as well as the other two. The Wolverines are more than capable of winning it all, however.


Houston has a proven Final Four formula, still is elite defensively, is improved offensively and has been really good down the stretch. The Cougars gave Arizona all it could handle Saturday. Defense and coaching travel. Also, the expectations are a little lower for the Cougars this year, so they may play more free, and they are healthier than in past years. Florida's loss by margin to Vanderbilt Saturday was telling, and we have doubts about the Gators' overall guard play and struggles from beyond the arc. A Florida-Houston regional final would be epic.


  1. Arizona, Duke, Michigan, Houston

  2. Florida, Iowa State, Purdue, UConn

  3. St. John's, Illinois, Michigan State, Gonzaga

  4. Arkansas, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Nebraska

  5. Wisconsin, Alabama, Kansas, Texas Tech

  6. Louisville, Tennessee, Kentucky, BYU

  7. UCLA, Miami, St. Mary's, North Carolina

  8. Clemson, Iowa, Villanova, Ohio State

  9. Georgia, St. Louis, Utah State, NC State

  10. Texas A&M, Santa Clara, TCU, San Diego State

  11. USF, VCU, SMU, Miami Ohio, Seton Hall, Missouri

  12. Akron, McNeese, High Point, Northern Iowa

  13. Hawaii, North Dakota State, Cal Baptist, Hofstra

  14. Troy, Wright State, Kennesaw, Penn

  15. Idaho, Furman, Siena, Queens

  16. LIU, UMBC, Tennessee State, Lehigh, Howard, Prairie View


Last Four In:

Missouri, Seton Hall, Miami Ohio, SMU


First Four Out:

Oklahoma, UCF, New Mexico, Texas


Next Four Out: VA Tech, Indiana, Auburn, Washington



Committee Consensus

This is the final component of our StatLogic Sports Bracketology. This is what we believe the Selection Committee will do; it's our best guess at what the actual tournament will look like, not what we think it should be.


Teams in bold still could be impacted by Selection Sunday game results, while teams in bold parentheses might be eliminated or moved in pending the results of their conference championship games.


Committee Consensus

Final update made at 5:45 p.m. EDT March 15


  1. Arizona, Duke, Michigan, Florida

  2. Houston, Iowa State, UConn, Purdue

  3. Illinois, St. John's, Michigan State, Gonzaga

  4. Virginia, Arkansas, Nebraska, Vanderbilt

  5. Alabama, Kansas, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

  6. Louisville, Tennessee, BYU, Kentucky

  7. St. Mary's, UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State

  8. Miami, Utah State, Iowa, St. Louis

  9. Clemson, Georgia, Villanova, TCU

  10. NC State, Santa Clara, Texas A&M, SMU

  11. VCU, USF, San Diego State, Miami Ohio, UCF, Texas

  12. Akron, McNeese, Northern Iowa, Hofstra

  13. High Point, Hawaii, North Dakota State, Cal Baptist

  14. Troy, Wright State, Kennesaw, Idaho

  15. Penn, Furman, Siena, Queens

  16. LIU, Tennessee State, Howard, UMBC, Lehigh, Prairie View


Last Four In:

Texas, UCF, Miami Ohio, San Diego State


First Four Out:

New Mexico, Oklahoma, Missouri, Auburn


Next Four Out:

Indiana, Seton Hall, VA Tech, Washington



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