StatLogic Sports Week 3 NFL Fantasy Football Gameday Guide

So, it’s Week 3 of the National Football league season, and as fantasy football managers and DFS players, at this point we know enough to be dangerous.

The truth is that enough current data has been accumulated to determine some tendencies that are likely to play out throughout the season, some lackluster performers who probably will turn it around and some players who might be in for a long season.

But it’s still only the third week of an 18-week grind, and a lot can change over time in the NFL. For that matter, a lot may change from week to week, so it’s essential that we all keep putting in the time, digging for information, watching as much football as possible without jeopardizing our personal and professional lives and trusting what we see.

It's also important as fantasy managers for us to draw our own conclusions, especially when it comes to teams and players we watch regularly. It’s great to study all the analytics that are readily available and listen to some people who we respect and have a track record of success in the industry, but at the end of the day we should make the final decisions.

We can’t let someone else talks us out of something we have strong feelings about; that jus leads to regret.

Week 3 brings us to a crossroads in the season as far as managing full-season and DFS lineups, however. It may be time to avoid some players who we thought would be top fantasy performers in our DFS lineups who we probably can’t afford to bench yet in full-season leagues.

Brian Thomas Jr. is one of those players. Six touches in two weeks. One touchdown that came on a running play. Erratic play at quarterback and an improved running game. And he probably gets to line up against some guy named Stingley from Houston today. On the bright side, Thomas does have 19 targets to date, but the scariest part is that most of his success last year came with a different quarterback under center.

It's not time to give up on him yet, but we need to see some signs of improvement in both us usage and his hands starting ASAP.

For DFS, however, we have to say, “no thanks” to Thomas this week but as a high draft pick – unless a manager was lucky enough to grab a sleeper running back or WR who has overperformed, sees the necessary volume and has a high enough floor to be a starter – Thomas probably deserves another week in the starting lineup before we start playing the “start or sit” game with him on a weekly basis.

Maybe he will have a breakout game or score a touchdown or two this week and managers can look to possibly move him while the iron is hot.

Other players who may be in similar situations include Kyren Williams, who always seems to have another touted back breathing down his neck; Mike Evans, who faces Sauce Gardner this week, is sharing the field with a talented rookie and might have Chris Godwin back with him in the lineup next week; Chris Olave, who probably was drafted as a WR3 or Flex by most managers, anyway, and has a rough matchup vs. Seattle; Mark Andrews, one of the few weekly plug-and-play tight ends for years with the Ravens but who appears to have lost his ability to get open and fallen to the bottom of Lamar Jackson’s priority list; Marvin Harrison, who just can’t seem to break through in Arizona; and Isiah Pacheco, who hasn’t looked the same since last year’s injury and also hasn’t really been given a full opportunity to return to being the true RB1 in Kansas City.

There are others to be concerned about for sure such as AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin, Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins, but we see better matchups on the horizon for them and indications that things will regress toward the norm for soon.

Then there are the rookies we warned everyone about and are causing fantasy managers everywhere to throw up their hands. Every year we try to explain that only a small percentage of the highly touted newcomers make an immediate fantasy impact, and the ones who do often are lesser-known players who are drafted later.

Drafting rookies and assuming they are going to be fantasy starters basically is a crap shoot, and unfortunately owners of Omarion Hampton, Ashton Jeanty, Kaleb Johnson, TreVeon Henderson and Matthew Golden, among others, are finding that out. We would lump Tetairoa McMillan into that group, but there are signs because of his usage and other predictors that he may be ready to take a big step forward soon, and at least Jeanty is getting most of the opportunities for the Raiders.

The good news – but also something that complicates lineup decisions – is that in addition to McMillan, there are some other young players who may be on the verge to making the jump to every-week starter and being considered for DFS lineups regularly.

We noted in our preseason observations article that Rome Odunze clearly had been the No. 1 target of Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams in training camp. That has continued into the season, and although the numbers aren’t quite there on a consistent basis, he’s the top guy and has a great matchup against a weak and battered Dallas secondary this week.

Quentin Johnston appears to have found his hands to go along with the other athletic attributes that never have been doubted. He’s the top deep threat in a very balanced Chargers lineup that has a quarterback playing at the top of his game. Johnson’s not quite an auto-start, however, as this week he likely will receive a heavy dose of shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain and he’s not a high-target player like teammates Ladd McConkey and Kennan Allen. The outside attention paid to Johnston makes both of those Los Angeles wideouts interesting Week 3 prospects.

Juwan Johnson has emerged from the shadow of injured Taysom Hill, finally, in New Orleans and is on the field and running routes between 80 and 90-percent of the time. A former wide receiver, he also gets split wide at times and is used almost like a WR3 or WR4 in some sets. With his playing time, targets and production to date, Johnson can be considered as a potential Flex option for teams that have elite starting tight ends such as Trey McBride and Brock Bowers.

Believe it or not, Falcons TE Kyle Pitts also is close to moving into that category after being a career underachiever to date. Maybe Pitts has been a decent player all along who simply was saddled with ridiculous expectations – like some of the rookies this year – and now has figured out what he needs to do to be effective with the expectations lowered. He’s not quite at the point of being a Flex option on teams with top tight ends, but Pitts should be an every-week starter and a DFS lineup consideration for most managers.

One final consideration for fantasy managers and DFS participants this week is to remember that the obvious answers aren’t always the right ones. Let’s take a look at a few examples for this week.

Every fantasy tout in America has Dak Prescott – and to a lesser extent Caleb Williams – listed as a can’t-miss fantasy prospect this week. The narrative in the “film community” is that Dak has played at an elite level to date and the Bears have been atrocious defensively.

While the latter certainly has been true, we’ve watched every snap of both Dallas games this season, and while Dak went to-to-toe with Russell Wilson last week, Russ would have completely stolen his thunder had it not been for a terrible pick he threw in overtime.

And THAT WAS THE NEW YORK GIANTS in a game that turned into a shootout between two bad teams. Dak played fine and led a couple of key drives – something he’s always been good at – but he made some really bad throws that could have cost Dallas and missed some big opportunities, too.

Hasn’t that been the story of his career, though?

Dak is fine as a full-season starter, but it seems like whenever he’s touted as a DFS savior he comes up short. This week’s game vs. Chicago is winnable. The Cowboys need to win every game in which they legitimately have a chance if they want to salvage their season and have an outside shot at the playoffs.

With Javonte Williams having given the Dallas running game a boost and Chicago struggling vs. the run, the Cowboys need a game manager this week. They need to control the ball and for Dak to spread it around to his talented receivers and keep the chains moving. He can’t make the big mistake and force the bad throw in key situations like he has been known to do.

That may limit his fantasy production with Dallas in “just-win-baby” mode. Is he worth starting in full season and a spot in at least one DFS lineup? Probably. But he may not be the slam dunk everyone thinks he is.

On the flip side, pundits are expecting a shootout as two bad defenses take the field for that game, which would mean that Williams, Chicago’s young QB, would be trying to keep pace with his veteran counterpart.

At 0-2 with a new hotshot coach and a fan base on the verge of rebellion, the Bears also are in a must-win situation, however. Dallas also has been a sieve vs. the run thus far, so for Chicago to adopt a ball-control approach and ask Williams to manage the game while handing the ball to D’Andre Swift with regularity would not be at all surprising. For bettors, maybe this is an under play for the game with the highest Vegas point total of the week?

Young coaches learn quickly that the NFL is a “win-now” league and  that a win is a win no matter how many style points come with it.

The Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in a similar spot – albeit with a far better track record – after an 0-2 start against a difficult schedule. The Chiefs take on the reeling Giants desperately in need of a win and in search of an offensive identity.

They have the best clutch quarterback in the league and a future hall-of-fame coach, and yet we are hearing rumblings of a potential New York upset. In 2025 that’s what you get in an oversaturated media world where engagement is king.

First and foremost, the Chiefs need to win, so throw the style points  that often accompany their victories out the window. They have yet to commit to the running game this year, and frankly they need to figure out if Pachco is their real RB1.

While many analysts are suggesting that Mahomes, who has had a nice start to his fantasy season partially because he’s been running a lot more than usual, will have a big game, isn’t it just as possible that they will try to establish their offensive line presence against another team that has been weak vs. the run?

We will say that Mahomes might be more of a point guard than a game manager Sunday night given his skillset and that the Chiefs will try to find their running game and see what Pacheco can do. It’s also a homecoming for Pacheco, who played his college ball right down the Jersey Turnpike at Rutgers. Expect him to take the field with a fairly large chip on his shoulder.

We have a similar take on the Eagles situation. Philly just seems to win every week, but apparently that isn’t good enough for many fans and the sports media these days. The Eagles have been heavily criticized for their boring offense and not allowing Jalen Hurts to use his talented wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith more.

Hurts always plays with a chip on his shoulder, and usually when he and the offense get criticized, he finds a way to pepper Brown with targets and shut up his critics. For that reason, we like both of those players today. Although Brown has been struggling, he’s a must-start in full season and a great stack with his hard-nosed QB in DFS.

Here is an in-depth breakdown of our top DFS plays for Week 3:

Pay-up Quarterback

Jalen Hurts

Value Quarterbacks

Drake Maye

Dak Prescott

Caleb Williams

Aaron Rodgers

Bargain Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota

Michael Penix

Sam Darnold

Tyrod Taylor

Potential Core Players

Jordan Mason – RB

Rome Odunze – WR

Michael Pittman – WR

Trey McBride - TE

Pay-up Running Backs

Bijan Robinson

Christian McCaffrey

Jonathan Taylor

Value RB1

Bucky Irving

Kenneth Walker

Javonte Williams

Isiah Pacheco

D’Andre Swift

Bargain RB/Flex

Jordan Mason

Jaylen Warren

Tony Pollard

Super Value RB/Flex

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Tyler Allgeier

Rachaad White

Rhamondre Stevenson

Pay-up Wide Receivers

Cee Dee Lamb

Nico Collins

Jaxson Smith-Njigba

Malik Nabers

Value Volume WR1

AJ Brown

DJ Moore

DK Metcalf

Jakobi Meyers

Ladd McKonkey

Super Value Upside WR

Rome Odunze

George Pickens

Emeka Egbuka

Michael Pittman

Ricky Pearsall

Keenan Allen

DeVonta Smith

Hollywood Brown

Terry McLauein

Deebo Samuel

Bargain WR/Flex

Olamide Zaccheus

Elic Ayomanor

Dontayvion Wicks

KaVontae Turpin

Josh Downs

Alec Pierce

Calvin Austin

Wan’Dale Robinson

Tory Horton

Core Tight Ends/Flex

Trey McBride

Juwan Johnson

Brock Bowers

Tyler Warren

Value Tight Ends

Zach Ertz Kyle Pitts

Jake Ferguson