We've seen enough.
Many of us with full-season fantasy football teams find ourselves in must-win situations for Week 11 as the playoffs rapidly approach. For those who also play DFS, pretty much every week is a must-win scenario. You spend money to play and you want to get a return on your investment, so making the right lineup decisions is absolutely critical.
Lineup decisions are always important for full-season managers, but early in the season we tend to play our studs and let them carry us until we have byes and injuries to deal with. Sometimes having very few real, impactful decisions to make can carry our teams and give us a false sense of security. Those managers who scour the wavier wire weekly, never rest on their laurels and build depth set themselves up for late and postseason success regardless of how their team performs early.
Similar to real-life sports, it's the teams that are playing the best at the right time that go the farthest. It's great to sprint out of the gates and build a nice cushion of early wins, but ultimately in the war of attrition that are the NFL and fantasy football seasons, injuries and other factors cause teams to regress to the mean and leave most of the fast starters and plodders with similar records heading into December.
Before we g on, here is a warning for those managers still are cruising along at the top of the standings with the playoffs locked up: Regression is right around the corner for you. Keep looking to build depth or the season will come to an abrupt and painful end much sooner than expected. All it takes is for a couple of key players to come up zeroes in an important matchup for the entire season to go up in flames.
Keep checking the waiver wire. Keep searching for hidden gems. Be wary of the strength of schedule facing every player and position on the roster. Don't rest until the check is in the bank.
For those who have maintained this approached throughout the season, as some players return to health and others emerge as potential starters and league winners, we now should be faced with many lineup options and several important decisions to make this week and going forward. That doesn't make fantasy football any easier, but it does mean we have a chance.
These are the types of decisions that DFS players face on a weekly basis, so those of us who participate in both formats may have a slight advantage over those who don't because it's more likely that we've been closely following the ebb and flow in performance of each team and each player in our quest to build high-scoring lineups each week.
At this point of the season, what the data and our eyes have told us simply cannot be ignored by full-season managers. This is how DFS players approach every week, so much of the information is transferrable to both formats as we enter the stretch run of the NFL 2024 season.
That means that we absolutely should have a "DO NOT PLAY" lists. These are the players, studs or supporting cast, who have proven through their performance or usage - or a combination of the two - to date that they cannot be trusted under ANY circumstances. Even if they have what appears to be a great matchup, we can't afford to put them in a lineup and risk leaving our team in a postional deficit that we cannot overcome.
Boom-or-bust players are fine to consider, but chronic underachievers are not.
Boom or bust means that there is a reasonable chance that a player will explode for a huge game in a given week. They are worth taking a chance in both DFS and full-season formats when the matchup fits, our options are limited or we need one player to blow up to have a chance to win something. Boom-or-bust, contrarian players who actually boom are the hallmark of winning DFS lineups in larger tournament formats.
A lineup full of boom-or-bust-guys may net you 200 points one week and win you some cash, but it's not a long-term formula for success. It's important to recognize, however, that no matter what his name or matchup might be, a player who has had six straight bust weeks or who has gone bust in eight out of 10 weeks or has been okay all year without really booming at all is not boom or bust. At this point, he's bust or bust and cannot be trusted.
There are several players who currently should strongly be considered for the DO NOT PLAY list. Some of the names are surprising, which will make it hard to ignore them. And some of them have the talent and potential to go boom at some point and potentially move off of the DO NOT PLAY list. The mindset at this point should be to play the odds and maximize our chances of scoring the most points possible while limiting risk. Putting these players in our lineups simply does not do that. Resist the temptation.
Week 11 DO NOT PLAY List
DJ Moore
Tyreek Hill (yes, we know)
Jaylen Waddle (yes, we know)
Aaron Rodgers
Caleb Williams
Will Levis
D'Andre Swift
Travis Etienne
Alexander Mattison/Zamir White
Josh Downs (not this week)
Michael Pittman Alec Pierce
Jordan Addison
Keenan Allen
Rome Odunze
Christian Watson
Gabe Davis
Josh Palmer
Isaiah Likely
Likewise, there are some surprising players who we should be doing everything possible to get into our lineups.
Play 'Em if You Got 'Em
Jakobi Meyers
Cedric Tillman
Calvin Ridley
Jauan Jennings
Courtland Sutton
Chuba Hubbard (bye week)
Ladd McConkey
Brian Thomas Jr.
Kareem Hunt (keep an eye on Pacheco)
Chase Brown
Bo Nix
Drake Maye
Jonnu Smith
Will Dissly
Now, here is a look at our weekly DFS main slate recommendations for Week 11:
Non-QB Core Players
Jonnu Smith
Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery
De'Von Achane
Jakobi Meyers or Cedric Tillman or Calvin Ridley
A Lineup We Love
Justin Herbert
De'Von Achane
Nick Chubb
Jakobi Meyers
Ladd McConkey
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Davante Adams - FLEX
Jonnu Smith
Colts
Pay-up Tier 1 Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson Josh Allen
Core Volume/Value Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy
Justin Herbert
Volume Value Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson
Jared Goff
Bo Nix
Super Value Quarterbacks
Drake Maye
Anthony Richardson
LOL of the Week Mac Jones costs more than Drake Maye lololololol
Pay-up Tier 1 Running Backs
De'Von Achane
Bijan Robinson
Kyren WIlliams
Breece Hall
Value Volume Running Backs
Alvin Kamara
Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery
Kareem Hunt
Super Value Running Backs
Nick Chubb
Chase Brown
Super Value Flex Running Back
Audric Estime
Pay-up Tier 1 Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Ja'Marr Chase
Justin Jefferson
Value Volume Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson/Davante Adams
Deebo Samuel
Value WR 2/3 or Flex
Jakobi Meyers
Cedric Tillman
Calvin Ridley
Jauan Jennings
Khalil Shakir
Ladd McConkey
George Pickens
Courtland Sutton
Brian Thomas, Jr.
Deandre Hopkins
Super Value WR
Demario Douglas/Kayshon Boutte
Ricky Pearsall
Jerry Jeudy
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Pay-up Tier 1 Tight End
Travis Kelce
Value Core Tight End
Jonnu Smith
Value Tight Ends
Will Dissly
Brock Wright Dawson Knox
Tyler Conklin
Hunter Henry
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