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Scott L.

Close Calls but No Superstar or All-Star MLB Picks for 8/28



There are no Superstar or All-Star Major League Baseball picks for August 28, although there are a few games that warranted strong consideration and were close.


Braves -136 at Twins and under 7.5

Chris Sale has allowed more than 2 earned runs once in his last 13 starts, and he's going up against right-hander David Festa and his 5.20 ERA. This one looks like a no-brainer on first glance, but Festa is an just an opener, and bullpen games can be problematic to bet and not a great fit for our model. The fact that Sale has been so dominant and the line is only -136 just doesn't smell right. A deeper dive shows that the Twins are one of the best-hitting teams in MLB vs. lefties at .263 with a .750 OPS. Meanwhile, Atlanta has been offensively challenged at times this year and is hitting just .238 vs. righties. Since we don't know who is next in line for Minnesota and so on for the rest of the game, we don't even know if that stat matters all that much. The point is that too much uncertainty isn't a good thing, and we just won't recommend bets unless we have the utmost confidence in the selection. Anytime Sale pitches he's a pretty good bet given his 14-3 record and 2.62 ERA, but we'll leave that decision up to you. If the total was 8, the under may have been in play for us.


Red Sox -142 vs. Blue Jays

We were actually closer to pulling the trigger on this one than the Atlanta game, mainly because of Brian Bello's inconsistency. He was brilliant vs. Baltimore two starts ago and then regressed back to his inconsistent self by giving up 5 runs on 7 hits in 5.1 innings his next time out vs. Arizona. Still, he's posted a respectable 4.09 ERA in his last four starts and a 4.21 mark over the past two months. Compare that to Toronto starter Chris Bassitt, who has been terrible for the last two months, compiling a 6.79 ERA in his last nine outings. In addition, Boston still has something to play for, while Toronto clearly is playing out the string. The Sox's bullpen certainly hasn't set the world on the fire, but the Blue Jays have one of the worst pens in the league overall and have been pretty much the worst in the American League since just before the trade deadline. Boston ranks second in MLB in both OPS and batting average vs. righties at .779 and .265, respectively. If not the the bullpen and Bello's up-and-down nature, this would have been a recommended bet. For those who are still interested, Boston may be worth considering as a first-five bet in addition to a full-game bet. But bet at your own risk!


Recent MLB Superstar Pick Results

8/19 Kansas City - 240 WIN (70%)

8/16 NY Mets -270 WIN (70%)


Recent MLB All-Star Pick Results

8/27 San Diego -142 (64%) WIN

8/25 Los Angeles -225 (67%) WIN

8/24 Atlanta -166 WIN (67%)

8/20 Arizona -130 WIN

8/20 Kansas City -120 WIN

8/20 San Francisco -1.5 (-118) WIN

8/19 Kansas City - 1.5 (-125) WIN

8/18 Seattle -187 WIN

8/17 San Diego -196 WIN (67%)

8/16 NY Mets -1.5 (-122) WIN

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