MLB Mid-Day Matchups for May 27

Here is a quick rundown of the Major League Baseball (MLB) matchups for May 27 that immediately caught our eye as games that might we might consider for today’s recommended bets. But first, we take a quick look back at how yesterday’s matchups panned out:

Recommended Pick

Diamondbacks -188 vs. Pirates (70% probability) - WIN

Matchup Edges 

Dodgers -156 at Guardians - WIN

Rays -120 vs. Twins - WIN

Parlay Options

Diamondbacks ML/Verhaeghe 2+ shots (+105) - LOSS

Diamondbacks ML/Tkachuk 2+ shots (+111) - WIN

Mid-Day Matchups for May 27

These will be updated through 3 p.m. EDT. Any Superstar or All-Star recommended bets will be posted either here or on our Twitter/X account or BlueSky along with any parlay options.

Money Line Parlay Options

Astros (-210/-240) vs. Athletics - Top-five starter and top-five bullpen vs. a reeling team with a 6.00 bullpen ERA and a starter who has a 5.25 ERA over the past month. Houston hits lefties well enough to score the runs they need in this one.

Yankees first five (-205) at Angels - The Yankees hit lefties better than any team in baseball, and their starter, Carlos Rodon, has been outstanding all year and even better in the last month (1.90 ERA), with advanced stats to support his 2.88 ERA and 0.959 WHIP. Tyler Anderson's advanced stats, on the other hand, are much worse than his ERA and WHIP. This is a first-five parlay option because Aaron Boone completely mismanaged his bullpen last night and used his red-hot closer for the second straight game for no reason.

Where We See an Edge

6:10 pm ET Dodgers at Guardians Under 9

May (4.09/1.243) vs. Bibee (3.57/1.207)

Sure, the Dodgers are ranked second among all MLB teams vs. RHP, but Cleveland ranks 23rd. Both pitchers tend to perform as advertised, and both sides have better-than-solid bullpens with top guys available. The Guardians games have come in under 9 runs in six of their last 10 outings with two pushes. The Dodgers have seen four of their last six come in under that number with one push. Tanner Bibee has a 2.52 ERA with 18 strikeouts in his last 25 innings spanning four starts. Dustin May has a 4.24 ERA and 27 Ks in his last 23.1 innings pitched, also spanning four starts. Team ERA and team bullpen ERA are both nearly identical and at or below 4.0. The data here pretty much all points to the under, with the main concern being 10 mph winds blowing out to LF. 

6:35 pm ET Cardinals -110/-118 at Orioles

Pallante (4.18/1.339) vs. Sugano (3.07/1.023)

Tomoyuki Sugano has been by far the most consistent Baltimore starter, and the Orioles have shown signs of life lately with three straight wins, solid pitching and a more situational approach at the plate. Still, his advanced numbers are all more than a run higher than his ERA, and he doesn’t make guys swing and miss very often (4.91 K/9IP). Andre Pallante, on the other hand, has advanced numbers that make him better than advertised, and the Cardinals bullpen has been much better this year and is mostly rested. The Orioles’ pen has been solid since the 19-5 debacle in Boston, but they are a bit gassed after playing four games in the last three days and pulling off three wins. The top guys were all used yesterday and may or may not be available today. It’s basically a coin flip at -110 at some books, and we see a likely edge for St. Louis here at that number or close to it. 

6:40 pm ET Giants -114/-120 at Tigers 

Webb (2.67/1.203) vs. Flaherty (4.39/1.181)

It’s just hard to ignore Logan Webb and a mostly fresh Giants bullpen, which has been one of the league’s best so far, at this number. While Jack Flaherty’s FIP is a run lower than his ERA overall, his ERA has been 6.00 over his last four starts. Both bullpens are very good, but Detroit’s bullpen ERA still is 0.80 higher. Edge to the Giants here at a very enticing number; if you prefer to bet San Francisco first five, that’s worth considering, too, but there would be a slight Webb tax up to -125 or so. 

6:45 pm ET Braves at Phillies -114 (first five)

Strider (5.79/1.393) vs. Suarez (3.70/1.192)

This is a pretty simple handicap as far as where we see the edge in this one. Spencer Strider’s sample size still is small, but he’s clearly working back into form coming off an injury and has been hit hard. His ERA is 5.79, and his advanced numbers are all pretty much on par with that. Teams are hitting .314 overall and .360 on balls that are put in play against him. Suarez also is coming back from an injury but continues to be one of baseball’s most consistent pitchers over the past two seasons when healthy. His advanced numbers are even better than his solid ERA and WHIP, and opposing batters are hitting just .237 against him. The Phillies are a top 10 offense vs. RHP, while Atlanta is No. 16 vs. lefties. We just have no faith in the Philly bullpen, so the edge here would be on a first-five bet and nothing else. 

8:05 p.m. ET Rockies at Cubs O7.5

Marquez (7.66/1.681) vs. Horton (4.4/1.395)

Maybe this one is so obvious that it can't be right, but let's just say this: German Marquez has been much better in May than he was in April. His May ERA is 5.06. His advanced metrics are a little better than that, but given the team's 4.41 bullpen ERA and his performance to date, combined with some other factors, it seems hard to believe that the number for this game is 7.5. A WHIP of 1.681 also does't usually tell too many lies. We have this game total at more like 9.3, so of course as sports bettors we always wonder about a possible trap. Cubs games have gone over 7.5 total runs in eight of their past 10 outings, while the offensively challenged Rockies have seen their totals eclipse that number in six of the past 10 contests. Theire will be 14 mph winds blowing across from left field into the first-base dugout, but believe it or not winds in that direction don't have much of an impact traditionally. Chicago's bullpen has been wildly inconsistent to date. The 3.99 ERA isn't terrible, but their current closer has pitched the last two days, their previous closer is on the injured list and the guy who started the season as closer was demoted to mop-up duty a few weeks back. Strong edge to the over here, but of course the unusually low number makes us take pause.