MLB Morning Matchups for May 28

Here is a quick rundown of the Major League Baseball (MLB) matchups for May 28 that immediately caught our eye as games that might we might consider for today’s recommended bets. But first, we take a quick look back at how yesterday’s matchups panned out:

Recommended Pick

No pick: Recommended picks are 1-0 this week

Matchup Edges 

Dodgers-Guardians UNDER 9 - LOSS

Cardinals -110 at Orioles - WIN

Giants -114 at Tigers - LOSS

Cubs-Rockies OVER 7.5 - LOSS (thanks ump)

Phillies first five (-114) vs. Braves - WIN

Matchup edges are 4-3 this week

Parlay Option

Astros ML/Yankees first 5 at +113 - WIN

Parlay Options are 2-1 this week

MLB Morning Matchups for May 28

These will be updated until 3 p.m. EDT Any recommended picks for today will be posted on Twitter, Reddit or BlueSky and/or here.

Parlay Options

Braves at Phillies first 5 (-175) - Breakdown below

MLB Matchup & Total Edges

3:40 p.m. Pirates first 5 (-105) at Diamondbacks

Skenes (2.36/0.97) vs. Gallen (5.25/1.362)

We wouldn't bet on either of these teams' bullpens, especially after yesterday's Arizona meltdown, but we will certainly consider taking advantage of a starting pitching mismatch such as Paul Skenes vs. Zac Gallen. Both guys have been very consistent in terms of their performance levels this season. Yes, Skenes' advanced numbers suggest he should be a little worse than his surface numbers appear, and Gallen's numbers indicate that he's been a little better than his ERA and WHIP might suggest. But it's still not close, and anyone who has watched Gallen would have to admit there's no comparison. The question becomes whether or not the Pirates can score two or three runs to win the first five. But if they don't give up any - or give up 1 - they stand a pretty good chance at not losing. Arizona is the second-best MLB team vs. righties, while Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom. But the D'Backs aren't posting a .803 OPS vs. Skenes, so these teams probably meet in the middle somewhere with this pitching matchup. Pittsburgh has averaged 4.5 runs over its past six games, while Arizona has averaged 3.83. Once again, neither that number nor the Diamondbacks' season average of 5.1 per game have come against a pitcher like Skenes. This just boils down to a vastly superior starter for one team and a number (-105) that provides a lot of value based on that matchup.

6:35 p.m. Cardinals at Orioles OVER 8

Mikolas (3.51/1.169) vs. Povich (4.86/1.446)

Both of these pitchers have been great lately, but neither has proven to be able to maintain that type of consistency over long stretches. Povich, as a second-year MLB pitcher, in particular. He has been lights out his past two starts but still has a 4.32 ERA over his last three outings. Mikolas has a 2.01 ERA this month, but his opponent batting average is .85 points higher on the road, his road WHIP is 0.32 higher and his XFIP on the road is 4.88. Overall, despite a manageable 3.51 ERA and solid 1.169 whip, Mikolas' XFIP is 4.97. He is exactly the type of pitcher Baltimore's strong lefty lineup has feasted on in recent years, and the Orioles seem to be coming around offensively. The Orioles are a top 10 team vs. RHP, and St. Louis ranks in the top half vs. LHP. Camden Yards also plays much smaller to right field than it does to left, which should benefit the O's lefties. The over looks solid at 8 but no so much at 8.5. Baltimore's bullpen continues to be a high-wire act even when it gets the job done, which it didn't yesterday; the pen's 5.45 ERA is bottom five in MLB.

6:45 p.m. Braves at Phillies first 5 (-175)

Smith-Shawver (3.67/1.46) vs. Wheeler 2.42/0.877)

AJ Smith Shawver has pitched well lately with a 3.18 EA over the past month, and his road ERA and advanced numbers are better than his overall indicators; But they still pale in comparison to what what Cy Young-favorite Zack Wheeler has compiled. Wheeler's ERA in May is 0.68, and his advanced stats for the season are all on par with his 2.42 ERA and 0.877 WHIP. There's zero chance we are trusting the Phillies' bullpen, so first 5 seems to be the way to go here - and also may be with considering as a parlay option.

7:40 p.m. Reds -110/-118 at Royals

Greene (2.54/0.846) vs. Cameron 0.93/0.672)

Even if Noah Cameron maintains the level he has performed at in three starts - which appears unlikely given his substantially higher advanced numbers - Hunter Greene continues to be one of the best and most consistent National League starting pitchers. While his advanced numbers are a tad higher than his 2.54 ERA, Greene has posted a 2.08 ERA in May, allowing just 7 hits while striking out 20 in 13 innings. Statistically, the KC bullpen is superior to Cincy's, but the Royals' pen is pretty much fried, while it should be all hands on deck for the Reds. Given the bullpen situation and Greene's experience advantage over Cameron, at -110 this seems like a hard one to walk away from, especially given Kansas City's offensive struggles. The Royals average just 3.3 runs per game and rank near the bottom of the league vs. RHP. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is a middle-of-the-pack team vs. lefties and averages 4.7 runs per game.