Morning MLB Matchups for May 26

Here is a quick rundown of the Major League Baseball matchups for May 26 that immediately catch our eye as games that might we might considering for today’s recommended bets. 

8:10 pm ET - PIrates at Diamondbacks (-188/-192) O9/U9.5

Heaney (2.91/1.132) vs. Nelson (4.60/1.149)

Pittsburgh flew through the night cross country after blowing a late lead Sunday at home vs. Milwaukee. That alone gives Arizona an advantage, and while Andrew Heaney is having a solid year for a bad team, his advanced numbers are all between 4.04 and 4.37, indicating regression may be around the corner. On the flip side, Nelson’s advanced numbers indicate his performance has been better than advertised. The Pirates’ already weak bullpen (4.59) is pretty gassed at this point, while Arizona’s is just bad (5.24) but more rested. Arizona is a top-11 team vs. lefties, while Pittsburgh is near the bottom vs. righties. The D’Backs average two runs per game more than Pittsburgh, while allowing 0.7 fewer. All early indicators point to Arizona here, maybe as a first-five bet if you are scared of the bullpen. The total on this one seems to be dropping below 9.5, and we think the actual game total has the potential to exceed 9. Worth a closer look for sure. 

7:05 pm ET - Twins at Rays (-115/-122) U9

Paddack (3.98/1.231) vs. Littell (4.25/1.146)

Two of the hottest teams in baseball square off in the heat and humidity of Tampa. The Twins recently won 13 in row and are 16-3 in their last 19, while the Rays have moved into second place in the AL East thanks to five straight wins. This is a potential fade Chris Paddack situation as his advanced numbers do not match his 3.98 ERA, and he doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses. He hasn’t come close to matching his current 3.98 ERA since his rookie season seven years ago. Littell isn’t really any better, but he walks half as many hitters per strikeout and overall Tampa Bay is trending in a better direction. Both teams have good bullpens, but the Rays’ best guys are available while Minnesota likely will be without its closer and possibly its top setup/leverage guy. The teams both rank in the bottom half vs. RHP and average about 4.0 runs scored per contest and have team ERAs ranking among the league’s top 10. Under 9.5 may be in play if that number is floating around anywhere. Other than heat and humidity, weather should not have a major impact. The Twins did play in Minnesota Sunday and had to travel, while the Rays were home sleeping in their own beds after sweeping Toronto. 

6:10 pm ET - Dodgers (-156/-162) at Guardians U7.5

Yamamoto (1.86/0.914) vs. Williams (3.94/1.521)

Anytime that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is only a -156 favorite it’s worth taking a deeper dive into the game, but it also makes you wonder if it might be a trap. Although Gavin Williams has performed about as his ERA would suggest - and perhaps even a little better based on advanced metrics - Yamamoto has been fantastic across the board. Also, Williams WHIP of 1.521 indicates that maybe he’s been dodging a few bullets. Both teams have strong bullpens, with most of the top guys ready to go. Los Angeles is the third-best hitting team vs. RHP, while Cleveland ranks 24th. The only negative for Los Angeles is having to travel in from New York after a Sunday night game, a spot that often is bet against, but Cleveland also had to make a short trip home after playing at Detroit. With no time-zone change and an early evening start, the Dodgers at first glance appear to be a solid play here. Weather should not be a major factor.

Any recommended picks will be released to clients prior to first pitch and publicly 30-minutes after the first pitch for tracking purposes.