NFL Fantasy Football Draft Guide: The Rookies

Colts tight end Tyler Warren is the one rookie we must have on our full-season fantasy rosters.

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It's one of our favorite times of the year as we prepare for Week 0 of the NCAA football season, NFL preseason is in full swing and fantasy football draft season is upon us. Last year we published one all-encompassing Fantasy Football Draft Guide, but this year we are splitting it up in to sections so that we can go into greater depth without overwhelming readers. Here is the first installment of our 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Guide as we take a look at the rookies.

By Scott L. - SL Sports Staff

In full transparency, we tend to avoid the hype when it comes to National Football League rookies and their potential fantasy football impact as their careers get started.

Building around highly touted rookies is something we don’t believe in, and while there may be rare occasions where it pays off, history has proven that first-year NFL players are a crap shoot for fantasy football managers. Some will emerge as legitimate starters with star potential, but they often are not the most highly touted newcomers, so in many cases we’re just blindly throwing darts when it comes to the rookies.

Do you really want to rely on someone consistently to provide the points necessary to be a fantasy starter who helps you win games every week when it’s almost like purchasing a lottery ticket?

The exceptions to our rookie stance are high-volume players such as Ashton Jeanty this year and Jayden Daniels last year.

With Daniels, we knew the Commanders were going to be patient and ease him in and that as a dual threat he was likely going to be able to put up starter points even during his down weeks. Daniels also wasn’t being picked until well after all the “elite” quarterbacks were taken, and there was little doubt that he had the potential to be at that level.

Jeanty will be the man in Vegas; there is little doubt about that. The big question there is if the Raiders line can block for him and if there a risk of injury if he touches the ball 20-plus times a game behind suspect blocking.

Remember the hype surrounding Bijan Robinson? It was halfway through Year 2 before he started living up to the high expectations. Robinson rushed for fewer than 1,000 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie. 

Did Robinson help teams win championships in Year 2? Almost certainly, but it took that long for him to be an impact fantasy performer, so while Jeanty is a supreme talent with huge upside, do we really want to use a first-round pick on him when we might be able to select an elite receiver and still get a back like Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor later?

Jeanty’s volume and potential make him a perfectly fine pick if he drops well below where he’s currently being taken in the late first or early second round. But from our perspective, passing on high-end receivers and selecting him before players like Henry, Taylor, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving and even James Cook seems like a risk we probably aren’t willing to take. Josh Jacobs is another player who is worth considering ahead of Jeanty based on his likely high volume of touches and the injury issues constantly surrounding MarShawn Lloyd in Green Bay, but we like Jacobs more as a third-round selection than a late second-round pick because he’s taken a beating over the years and does have some injury history. 

That’s probably the breaking point for us; if we had a choice between Jeanty and Jacobs we probably would take Jeanty, but that’s not a realistic scenario given the hype surrounding the rookie and his current average draft position (ADP).

Beyond Jeanty, there probably are few rookies we would target, but there is one and some others to keep an eye on. Questions still need to be answered about these players as far as their playing and volume opportunities, so selecting them before you have legitimate staters in place is always a risk. But there’s no doubting their talent and ability to succeed if the opportunity is there, and some amount of risk-taking is necessary when building a championship fantasy team.

Also, rookie RBs who we know will get the volume to be considered legit No. 1 backs for their teams are much more appealing to us than super-talented rookie wide receivers who may be lights out one week and completely disappear the next.

In general, there seems to be a two- or three-year adjustment period for even the highest draft picks at receiver. A look at the 2024 NFL draft supports our case. The wide receivers chosen in the first round were Marvin Harrison (4), Malik Nabers (6), Rome Odunze (9), Brian Thomas (23), Xavier Worthy (28), Ricky Pearsall (31) and Xavier Legette (32). 

Of that group, Nabers lived up to his billing, finishing with better than 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns. He also was by far the most talented offensive option on a terrible New York Giants team. He is a legitimate late first-round fantasy option this year despite a concerning quarterback situation and offensive line situation that may hold back the entire offense.

Thomas was the overachiever of that 2024 first-round receiving group, and had the best overall numbers with nearly 1,300 yards and 10 TDs for the Jaguars. But he was chosen 19 spots below Harrison and 17 below Nabers. There are concerns in Jacksonville, but he is not one of them, and Thomas is one of our target receivers this year in the second round playing with a QB who was a top overall draft pick and has experienced at least some level of success in the league. 

As for the others, none were fantasy impact players. Harrison and Odunze weren’t total disappointments, but they were inconsistent and didn’t come close to fulfilling expectations. Worthy was a boom or bust one-dimensional player who was very inconsistent despite playing with one of the best quarterbacks of all time. 

Pearsall got shot in a random off-field incident, so that of course has to be taken into consideration when evaluating his first season. He did flash his talent upon returning, but he was a fantasy non-factor for the most part and 2025 basically will be his rookie season. We are not interested in him at his current ADP. In what amounts to his first full season, he will be expected to assume the role as a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver on an injury-depleted team. Can he be productive with Brandon Aiyuk out for the first month or more and Jauan Jennings, a part-time player until last year who is expected to assume a large role this season, hobbled heading into Week 1?

Legette seemed to be on everyone’s weekly DFS bargain or value list at wide receiver, which isn’t necessarily what you want out of a first-round pick or a member of a full-season fantasy roster. He dis show some big-play ability with four touchdowns but didn’t eclipse the 500-yard mark for the season.

Unfortunately, the past history of first-year wideouts in terms of fantasy production gives us pause when listening to all the pundits as they overhype receivers such as Carolina’s Tetairoa McMillan, Tampa Bay's Emeka Egbuka and Greenbay's Matthew Golden. Those guys just don't move our needle very much.

That’s not to say the we wouldn’t consider drafting any of them once our starting lineups are full, but since receiver is such a critical position, we’d much rather select a high-volume guy such as the Raiders’ Jakobi Meyers or experienced veterans with set roles such as Stefon Diggs, Chris Olave or Deebo Samuel as No. 3 or 4 receivers efore looking to the rookies.

McMillan is being picked ahead of players such as Zay Flowers, Cooper Kupp, DeVonta Smith, Odunze, George Pickens, Jerry Jeudy, Pearsall, Diggs, Meyers and Olave in many drafts. That just seems insane to us.

The one intriguing rookie WR who we might consider as a No. 4 or possibly even a No. 3 is Egbuka. With Chris Godwin still recovering from an injury and now that Jalen McMillan has a serious neck injury, Egbuka pretty much is assured to be the the No. 2 WR behind future Hall of Famer Mike Evans for the Bucs. Tampa Bay has no shortage of weapons with Evans and running back Bucky Irving in the fold, and veteran gunslinging quarterback Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year. Egbuka is going to be thrown into the fire right away, and from all accounts, he has the talent and work ethic to be a first-year success.

Still, it’s a huge adjustment moving from college to the NFL. 

Tight end is a position for which the transition seems to be more seamless than wide receiver. Athletic tight ends tend to have a physical advantage over the players who cover them in man-to-man situations, and a sure-handed tight end becomes a QB’s best friend when he is under pressure and in the red zone. 

For all those reasons, as well as his overall compete level, great hands and tenacity, the lone rookie we are truly targeting this year is Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren. Daniel Jones being named the starting QB in Indy only reinforces our opinion on Warren. He appears to be ready to make an impact on an offense that has one of the game’s top running backs and a stable of solid receivers. Warren is going to be the top TE on a team that has lacked an impact player at that position since the Peyton Manning days, and he hasn’t missed a beat in training camp or preseason games.

Similar to last year’s record-setting rookie tight end Brock Bowers of the Raiders, Warren was a first-round selection who was taken 14th, one spot lower than Bowers. Michigan’s Colston Loveland was the only other TE taken in the first round, four spots in front of Warren, but the presence of Cole Kmet in Chicago makes us hesitant anoint him as the top rookie tight end this year. 

We believe Loveland’s NFL future is bright but are convinced that the opportunity for Warren to make a major immediate impact is better in Indy. We have targeted him as our must-have TE. We will pass on Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram - all of them - to get Warren after our other starting positions are full. It's not because we don't like those guys or think they are good. Instead, we believe that Warren's production will be close enough to theirs that we would benefit by taking starters at other positions when those other tight ends are being selected in most drafts.

Keep in mind that it’s imperative for all of us to be flexible in our approach to drafting, so that’s not to say we would never select Bowers or McBride if they were available under the right circumstances. For example, if we have two strong running backs and an elite receiver on our roster and aren’t thrilled with the players who are available at those positions for our next selection, grabbing one of those two elite top-tier tight ends would be a no-brainer as long as none of the Tier 1 dual-threat quarterbacks are available. Unfortunately, those players are being selected in the late second or early third round in most drafts. 

Below is our breakdown of this year's NFL rookie class for fantasy football purposes:

Targeted Rookie

Tyler Warren - TE Colts

Rookies to Monitor 

TreVeyon Henderson - RB Patriots

Omarion Hampton - RB Chargers

Kaleb Johnson - RB Steelers

Emeka Egbuka - WR Buccaneers

Jaydon Blue - RB Cowboys 

Tory Horton - WR Seattle 

Luther Burden - WR Bears 

Colston Loveland - TE Bears

Henderson’s talent is undeniable. His pro career began with a 100-yard touchdown return on the opening kickoff of his first NFL game, and the Patriots have been unable to generate a consistent running attack for several years now. The only problem with him is the shadow of Rhamondre Stevenson hovering over him and what that means for his workload. 

Stevenson has been a dominant back at times during his career, but often has disappeared and last year struggled to hold on to the football. As a backup for a rebuilding team with a rookie RB it is possible that he could get 10-12 touches a game, which means that selecting Henderson in the third round simply is too early. If somehow you can steal him as your third RB, by all means do it.

Other than Jeanty, Hampton seems to be the one rookie RB who has been handed a starting job and is likely to see the volume needed to possibly serve as a legitimate RB2. JK Dobbins was the Chargers’ starter a year ago and had a very solid year coming off a serious injury. We know that Jim Harbaugh wants to runt he ball and wear down opposing defenses. 

While Ladd McConkey is a budding star at wide receiver, the roster isn’t littered with amazing skill-position talent. Najee Harris was bought in from Pittsburgh to stabilize the backfield, but he suffered an off-field eye injury July 4 and just began participating in football drills about a week ago. Observers at the Los Angeles training camp have said it’s highly unlikely Harris will be ready for Week 1, but Harbaugh is famous for keeping important injury information close to the vest. 

Regardless, Hampton has gotten the vast majority of starter reps in camp and it appears likely that he will have an opportunity to take the job by the throat early in the season. Harbaugh’s teams always are successful running the ball, Hampton figures to have at least some early success, which will make it difficult for Harris, a player who appeared to be on the decline last year in Pittsburgh, to unseat him as the RB1 once healthy.

Hampton would be a steal as a team’s RB3, but he’s worth considering as RB2 if you feel like your picks to that point at RB and WR are strong. 

Johnson probably will begin the season splitting time with veteran Jaylen Warren in Pittsburgh. Fantasy managers who had to deal with the Harris-Warren timeshare in the past might not want to deal with that situation again, but with Johnson having an ADP in the 70s and a coach who loves to establish the run (and an immobile 40-year-old QB), it may be worth giving him a shot as a RB3/Flex if you are satisfied with your other starters and are willing to wait on a QB. 

Despite dealing with some bumps and bruises, Blue has gotten solid reviews at Cowboys training camp and appears to be in the mix to at least get a share of the carries in Dallas with Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders also in contention. He is worth a dart throw as a final or second-to-last late-round selection. 

Often overlooked at Colorado State because he played second fiddle to Colorado's Tory Hunter, Horton is a polished and explosive wideout who just seems to find open spaces on the field. In college he had a knack for making big catches in critical situations. Horton was targeted seven times and caught a touchdown pass in Seattle’s first preseason game. 

Many fantasy pundits have been reporting that Horton is in competition with veteran Marquez Valdes-Scantling for the WR3 spot in Seattle, but Horton is listed as a starter on the team’s latest depth chart. Everyone knows exactly what MVS brigs to the table, and with both DK Metcalf and longtime Seahawk Tyler Lockett gone, why not give the under-the-radar player with a much higher upside the first shot at the job?

Horton is a last-round fantasy draft pick or a player to monitor Week 1 as someone you might want to grab off the waiver wire. 

Rookies to Avoid

Travis Hunter - WR/CB Jaguars

Quinshon Judkins - RB Browns

RJ Harvey - RB Broncos

Matthew Golden - WR Packers

Jayden Higgins - WR Texas

Cam Skattebo - RB Giants

We will be brief here.

We LOVE Travis Hunter but have no idea how much he will be used on offense and frankly have no desire to deal with it.

It now appears that Judkins isn’t likely to sign with Cleveland until the NFL investigation into his off-field situation is complete. We have no interest in any players (hello Rashee Rice and Jordan Addison) dealing with pending investigations and suspensions. 

Harvey is going to play some for sure and might be great. Hell, he may start even as a guy listed at the bottom of the team’s depth chart, but we saw the Sean Payton RB merry-go-round in Denver last year and have zero interest in participating this season with JK Dobbins also on the roster. 

Golden is part of a WR room in Green Bay with a lot of experienced and pretty talented players, but no one ever seems to emerge as a consistent fantasy starter at wideout for that team. He may be good enough to change that, but we would only take him as a WR5 or WR6. 

From everything we are hearing out of Houston, Higgins has just been okay in camp and isn’t in the mix to receive substantial playing time yet. Christian Kirk is the clear WR2 there right now, according to reports. 

Skattebo is sure to be a fan favorite in Giant Land, but so was Tommy DeVito. Skattebo is a tough, strong runner who is hard to tackle. He’s probably too slow to be an every-down workhorse NFL RB, but certainly could end up being a goal-line specialist. His style and mentality also makes him a potential special-teams demon. Those guys usually aren’t RB1 or RB2 for most teams, though, right? 

Oh, and he’s been hurt most of training camp. Pass.