StatLogic Sports Week 5 NFL Fantasy Football & DFS Gameday Guide

By Scott L. - SL Sports Staff

The day of reckoning is here.

Fantasy football owners either have been putting in the weekly time scouring the waiver wire and planniing ahead in preparation for the first bye week of the season - and the plethora of National Football League injuries that seem to surprise everyone annually - or they haven't.

To those who haven't, we extend heartfelt thoughts and prayers. To those who have, good on you, but we still extend thoughts and prayers. The job isn't done.

Now, whether it's full-season fantasy or DFS, its decision time. Which of the Plan C, B, D and E guys are ready for prime time and should be in our lineups?

With only 10 games on the Week 5 NFL DFS main slate and four teams on a bye, our options this week are limited. For full-season managers, that means the decision-making has been eliminated in some cases. If the only healthy running back on the roster whose team is playing is Kareem Hunt, well he has to be the guy - unless, of course, the rest of the managers in the league have been sleeping and a Woody Marks or Michael Carter is still hanging around on waivers.

Otherwise, maybe one-third of Washington's three-headed running back monster is available and worth a late pickup. Or perhaps a Malik Washington still is sitting there begging to be given a shot. If that's the case, go for it. Grab those dice and roll the bones.

Need a tight end? It looks like Brock Bowers and and Michael Mayer likely are out for the Raiders, so say hello to Albert Okwuegbunam, who just might fall into the end zone once and is priced at $4,000 on Fan Duel. If Mr. O can get us 8-10 points and we can stack the rest of the lineup with a bunch of studs who approach or exceed 20 points, I know a guy in the Bahamas dying to sell one of my rich pals a new beach house.

Here's what is going to happen, actually what already is happening. These names will be on the tip of every fantasy analysts tongue - or have been for the past few days:

Rico Dowdle

Michael Carter

Tyler Warren

Jake Ferguson

Michael Pittman

Ladd McConkey

Breece Hall

Cam Skattebo

Rachaad White

Jonathan Taylor

De'Von Achane

Thus, as smart as many of us think we are, they are not a secret.

Finding the right mix of those players - especially the top-tier, high-volume guys - to go along with the highest-value fill-in players will be important in cash games. But remember that there are groups of DFS contestants who are going to be doing the same thing in those contests, with many of them working together to submit the exact same lineups in hopes of maximiizng their odds of winning.

It used to be that we could combine the top chalky players with the best values and be very successful in a 50/50 or similar contests. It's not so easy now, so we believe that it's important to diversify our lineups no matter what format we are playing. Putting together one chalky lineup is fine, but let's look for the less-noticed, lower-owned potential gems instead.

That makes it more fun, anyway., Who doesn't love puffing their chest out on Sunday night and saying, "Look at the guys I had on my team. I new it all along, just playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers."

According to various sources, these should be the highest-owned players in DFS this week:

QB: Justin Fields, Justin Herbert

RB: Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Rachaad White, Jahmyr Gibbs, Rico Dowcle, Javonte Williams, Cam Skattebo

WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Deebo Samuel, Ladd McCokey, MIichael Pittman, Garrett Wilson, Tetaroia McMillan, Chris Godwin, Jakobi Meyers

TE: Tyler Warren, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson

This is just a frame of reference; it doesn't mean that we avoid these players altogether. The key is to either find the top players who aren't on this list at all or to combine the highest-owned players with the lower-demand guys who are most likely to be successful.

One thing that happens on a weekly basis in DFS - and often also skews the decisions made by full-season managers - is having expectations that are way too high for the flavors of the week

The New York Football Jets play the defensively challenged Dallas Cowboys this week, so Justin Fields, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are in crazy-high demand. But are they slam dunks? Remember, this is the Jets.

Everyone has been able to throw on Dallas, but Fields makes his hay with his legs. What if the Cowboys just decide to do everything possible to not let him run and dare him to beat them with his arm? Is he capable? There are doubts about that, right?

Fields's value is derived from his being able to compile 20-plus fantasy points even if he throws for 120 yards and zero or one TD. So, the thought process is that he is playable in some lineups - and absolutely is a full-season starter - and if he blows up, it's likely that Garrett Wilson will as well. If he is just average, though, It may be a Breece Hall day, so consider a lineup without him that includes Hall.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert along with wideouts Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen also are names we are seeing and hearing everywhere. All three receivers have been productive this season, but the surprising success of Johnston and veteran consistency of Allen has rendered McConkey one of fantasy's biggest disappointments.

Of course, with the Chargers coming off a hideous loss to the Giants and taking on a Washington team that struggles to cover when it can't get pressure to the passer, many folks are expecting a monster game out of Herbert and a get-right performance for McConkey. The reality is that all of those players should start for full-season teams, and all are viable DFS selections.

But what if the Washington defensive line that completely dominated the Giants and Raiders shows up? What if they sell out to shut down Herbert, who is tough but can be rattled into terrible decisions, and the passing game. Did anyone watch Omarion Hampton play last week?

The Commanders aren't great against the run, either, and Los Angeles has an offensive line ranked by some in the bottom third of the league. The Chargers lost their best lineman for the season to injury. Maybe Washington's DL pins its ears back and decides to make Herbert's life a living hell and hopes that Hampton doesn't kill them.

We won't know for sure until the game is played, but the safest bet to tap into the potential production of all three receivers is to use Herbert at QB while looking to play the less-expensive receivers and pivoting to Hampton in other non-Herbert lineups. Take a stab at McConkey, too, but don't make him the focus.

Michael Carter is a name that has come up regularly throughout the week, and some people have bought into the comments that he - not his coaches - made declaring himself as the starter. Carter was on the practice squad a week ago, meaning he was fourth string before injuries to James Conner and Trey Benson made him viable. Last week, Emari DeMercado saw his workload increase and appeared to be the clear third-down option.

It's not a lock that Carter is going to step right in and see the type of volume that we want to bank on. In fact, before the injuries to Conner and Benson, the workload for those two backs steadily was approaching a 50/50 share. Is Carter going to jump from fourth string to "the man" and receive RB1 or RB2 volume after a few days on the varsity?

That doesn't seem likely and renders him as a potential flex option only because of a favorable matchup vs. the Titans. At $4,000, he's certainly worth taking a shot on in a lineup or two, but don't count on him winning anyone a million dollars. If he gets into the end zone or reaches the 10-point plateau, it would be a success, but given DeMercado's pass-catching abilities we see him as having nearly equal value at $5,200.

The super-sub who is the safest play and most likely to far surpass his value is Rico Dowdle of the Panthers. He has very little competition in the backfield and should be a three-down back against a porous Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in fantasy terms against the run. Dowdle also proved to be a legitimate NFL-caliber running back in Dallas a year ago. He should jump right into Hubbard's role, getting 15 to 20 touches and goal-line carries.

At $4,900, even if Dowdle has an average day, he will exceed that value. As far as value players are concerned, he is almost a slam dunk to more than pay for himself, which makes him a guy we can build around even if he is highly owned. The key will be to surround him with the right elite Week 6 pieces.

With that in mind, we want to present the anti-ownership team. This is the lineup we would put together of players we think will be top-tier performers with less ownership - along with guys who may be highly owned but seem likely to exceed their value.

Stat-Logic Sports Week 5 Anti-Ownership DFS Lineup

QB - Kyler Murray $7,500 vs. Titans

RB - Omari Hampton $7,500 vs. Commanders

RB - Rico Dowdle (highly owned value anchor) $4,900 vs. Dolphins

WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown $9,300 vs. Bengals

WR - Nico Collins $8,100 vs. Ravens

WR - Jaylen Waddle $5,800 vs. Panthers

TE - Tyler Warren $6,100 (highly owned anchor) vs. Raiders

FLEX - Alvin Kamara $7300 vs. Giants

D - Saints $3,500 vs. Giants

There you go. Our commission is 15 percent. You're welcome.

Here is a list of potential higher-owned anchor players and lesser-owned value guys for Week 5.

Anchor Quarterbacks

Justin Fields

Justin Herbert

Value Anchor Quarterback

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

Pay-up Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels Jalen Hurts

Value & Volume QBs

Jared Goff

Dak Prescott

Super-value QB

Bryce Young

Pay-up Anchor Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor

De'Veon Achane

Jahmyr Gibbs

Anchor Running Backs

Omarion Hampton

Breece Hall

Volume RB2

Javonte Williams

JK Dobbins

Ashton Jeanty

Value Anchor Running Backs

Rico Dowdle

Rachaad White

Value Pivot Running Back

David Montgomery

Super Value Running Backs

Woody Marks

Michael Carter

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Emari DeMercado

Pay-up Anchor Wide Receivers

Nico Collins

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Volume WR1

Garrett Wilson

George Pickens

Ladd McConkey

Emeka Egbuka

Value Anchor Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle

Value Volume Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen

Chris Olave

Jakobi Meyers

Deebo Samuel

Value WR3/Flex

Chris Godwin

Wan'Dale Robinson

Malik Washington

Rashid Shaheed

Upside Wide Receivers

Quentin Johnston Jameson Williams

Tetairoa McMillan

Super-value WR

Tory Horton

Josh Downs

Tre Tucker

Jalen Tolbert

Jaylin Lane

Christian Kirk

Jayden Higgins

Tyler Johnson

Pay-up Tight End

Trey McBride

Anchor Tight Ends

Tyler Warren

Jake Ferguson

Value Tight Ends

Darrren Waller

Zach Ertz

Super Value Tight Ends

Cade Otton

Mason Taylor