By Scott L
It’s finally here!
No, not the National Football League season, although college football does kick off today with its aptly named “Week Zero.” We’ve still got about 12 more days to endure before the Ravens and Chiefs take the field in Arrowhead for the first game of the NFL campaign, but the next two weekends might be the next-best thing.
The season is so close that if we close our eyes and breathe deeply enough, we can almost see the first blown replay review of 2024. And that means we are about to dive into the busiest two fantasy football draft weekends of our long, seemingly endless summer.
After months of listening to draft talk, rookie talk, free-agent talk, holdout and hold-in talk, best-ball talk, injury talk, sleeper talk, boom-or-bust-talk, PPR and non-PPR talk, superflex talk, keeper and dynasty talk – along with all kinds of other chatter and babble that eventually all sounds like Charlie Brown’s teacher – we are just about there.
After hundreds of mock drafts and countless hours of staring at cheat sheets and spreadsheets while tossing and turning in our bedsheets, the time is near.
After months of preparation, second-guessing and discussions about heroes and zeroes and listening to too many call-in show weirdos, we are just about ready to roll.
It’s time to put your money where your mouth is, put up or shut up and throw caution to the wind. But don’t worry, there’s no pressure other than to make sure you aren’t lighting the money used to pay your entry fees on fire and haven’t wasted the 27,000 hours you have spent planning for your drafts the last five months.
It’s go time, baby!
This is why we don’t lift all those damn weights and spend the time we should be in the gym improving ourselves signing up for “just one more mock draft.” This is why names like Matthew Berry, Paul Charchian, Jeff Mans and Jeff Ratcliffe are more familiar to most of us than Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Rachel Maddow and Sean Hannity.
By the way: Do you think that Biden guy still stands a chance against Trump?
Whatever hole or cave you’ve been hiding in since the Super Bowl, it’s time to come out and see the light. It’s time to tune out the noise and focus. It’s time to grow up and go out on your own and make some big-boy and big-girl decisions.
These next two weeks may, in fact, be the most important two weeks of your year. For some, it may be the most important two weeks of your lives. But there’s really no pressure. Relax and remember to stay calm as the draft clock clicks down, “beep, beep, beep.”
Don’t overthink it. That’s what all the prep is for. When all else fails, go with your gut instinct and resist the urge to pick the player you just heard some schmuck on Sirius/XM droning on about over the proven, high-volume RB1 with the high floor you know you should take. Don’t freak out and take the overvalued rookie, the aging vet or the dual-threat QB one round too early just because the clock is ticking.
Go in with a plan.
But be ready to completely abandon that plan 10 minutes into your draft. The reality is that should go into your draft with multiple plans.
Let the Fantasy Draft Come to You
It’s perfectly fine to go into every draft with a plan. In fact, we encourage that.
Whether you want your draft to be a wide-receiver, “Zero RB” feeding frenzy, are looking for your “Hero RB,” want to dominate the ground game with two RB1 dudes in your backfield or absolutely must get one of the superstar Tier 1 QBs, it’s best to have a plan.
We all have our preferences.
Mine is to go heavy on the top wide receivers in hopes of possibly coming away with as many as three players who are going to see the WR1 targets for their teams. Hopefully, all three of them fall into what I consider to be my Tier 1 or Tier 2 WR categories.
I do this believing that I still will be able to pick up two high-volume running backs later in the draft to go along with a dual-threat quarterback such as Kyler Murray or Jalen Daniels somewhere in that mix. If I get one of those guys at QB, given that Murray has been injury prone and Daniels is unproven, I will select my QB2 earlier than most would to ensure that I have a consistent high-floor option such as Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa or Brock Purdy as my Plan B safety net.
As I approach each draft, I also have a list of players who I either won’t draft at their current average draft position (ADP) or only will draft if they drop well below that value. There also will be some players I will avoid no matter what.
For example, I will not select Christian McCaffrey if I have the first pick. He probably is the best overall offensive player in the league, but his career has been marred by injuries – he’s been dealing with some nagging stuff during training camp – and it’s hard to believe he will receive the 400-plus touches he got last season. Likewise, I have no interest in taking the guys who has missed camp and is holding out or holding in such as Ja’Marr Chase and Cee Dee Lamb near the top of the first round.
Why take that risk when there are other outstanding, talented and high-volume players such as Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown who are likely to be available and carry less or limited risk?
History has proven that players who miss most of camp tend to be slow starters and are more susceptible to suffering injuries that nag them throughout their seasons than players who begin the year in “football shape.” So, while those players may be at 100 percent and ready to lead your team to the promised land during the second half of the campaign, will you even have a shot at making the playoffs if one of your top stud draft picks underachieves for six or eight weeks?
I’m also not particularly interested in taking Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson with one of the first-five picks. Hall is a strong and talented runner, but how will his volume and role change now that his team’s Hall of Fame quarterback finally will be under center? He certainly will be an extremely productive player, but will he put up numbers worthy of being a top-five selection?
And as far as the ultra-talented and freakish Robinson is concerned, the sky is the limit, but it remains to be seen how he will be utilized by the new coaching staff in Atlanta after a frustrating rookie season playing in Artie Smith’s “system.” Most of us have felt the pain of Kyle Pitts’s initial NFL campaigns, and I’m just not prepared to take that chance with Robinson. There is little doubt that he will be used more appropriately and put up better numbers than last year, but again will the increased usage be enough to validate him being a top-five pick?
It's possible.
It’s also possible that he could lead your team to a championship. But to me, he’s just not a sure thing, and at the top of the draft I want to take a player I perceive to be a sure thing – or at least as sure of a thing as one can be in the NFL. You can’t whiff on your first-round pick, and history has proven that about fifty percent of players taken in the opening round underachieve.
I would much rather take a player like Jonathan Taylor, a proven 2,000-yard rushing threat who is going to get a ton of carries in what should be a ground-heavy offensive attack and is 100-percent healthy, later in the first round or early in the second round. High-volume, durable players such as Derrick Henry and Travis Etienne late in the second or early in the third round also are much more appealing – as is Isiah Pacheco, who really has no challenger for backfield touches in Kansas City.
If I somehow get through the first three rounds with two players who are WR1 for their teams – or maybe even three – or perhaps I’m faced with taking an WR2 vs. a player such as Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta in Round 3 and end up with one of those elite tight ends to go along with the top wideouts, then it might be time to look at one of the premier dual-threat QBs a tad early. Or maybe it would be a good idea to consider a pair of high-volume running backs such as Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, or Kenneth Walker with my next two picks. Or I possibly could go with one of them and a Tier 1 dual-threat QB or take a potential game-changer at RB such as De’Von Achane.
Achane’s inury issues are a definite concern. In Miami’s high-powered offense, though, if you can snag him in the fourth round and he stays healthy, he’s the type of player who can win you a championship. That’s the kind of risk – after I’ve already solidified my receiving corps – that I’m willing to take. If you do select him, you can always backfill later in the draft with players like Brian Robinson, Jr., Javonte Williams, Zamir White, Austin Ekeler or Zack Moss. You may even be able to handcuff him to Raheem Mostert or Jaylen Wright.
Assuming the draft plays out this way and you’ve got three strong receivers and two solid RBs heading into the sixth round, either Kyler Murray or Jayden Daniels should be right there waiting for you. I would take that type of lineup heading into Week 1 any day of the week.
The main takeaway should be that entering the draft with a plan provides structure for the type of team you are hoping to assemble, allows you to think quickly and adapt, provides you with some absolutes to make potential difficult decisions easier and substantially lessens the possibility that you will end up making a panicked selection as the draft clock is winding down. This allows you to deviate from your plan almost immediately to make the best selection possible and to capitalize on the mistakes of others as the draft beings firing curveballs at you.
For example, if you are selecting late in the first round or early in the second and Taylor falls that far while the receivers you absolutely love are gone, taking him and focusing on two top receivers and an elite tight end during the next three rounds may make sense. If you have a choice in the late second round between a Henry or an Etienne and receivers that are on your “do not draft” or “only if they fall” lists, again taking the RB probably makes sense.
From there you adjust, keeping in mind where you would like to be through the first six rounds. Players such as Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams are being selected too late in most drafts, as are guys like Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin. Getting a Diggs, Godwin, Allen or McLaurin as your No. 3 receiver or a flex seems like a pretty good bargain.
In Washington, under new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, both Robinson and Ekeler can thrive in what should be a ground-heavy attack led by the athletic Daniels.
Robinson is going to be the meat and potatoes guy who handles the physical part of the workload and gets the goal-line carries. His surprising ability to catch the ball out of the backfield rendered Antonio Gibson obsolete in D.C.
The Commanders just unloaded pouty receiver Jahan Dotson, which means Ekeler may become the team’s No. 2 receiving threat. He also will be a great change-of-pace for Robinson, and his body should hold up better if he’s allowed to make more plays in space instead of being asked to hammer the ball between the tackles on a regular basis.
Both Robinson and Ekeler have been bargain selections who tend to be available much later in most drafts than their potential production warrants. If you go WR heavy early and have three strong receivers to go along with high-volume RBs and a quarterback you like, these are the types of players who can make the difference in your season.
And if your receiver-heavy approach leaves you without a tight end through the first six rounds, your target should be Evan Engram, who is lasting until the seventh round in some drafts. While Engram may not duplicate the 114 catches and 963 yards he compiled last season, he is almost certain to exceed his four touchdown receptions from a year ago.
Departed wideout Calvin Ridley led the NFL in endzone targets last season, so some of those looks should go to Engram, and the loss of Ridley and Trevor Lawrence’s need for a safety valve make it seem likely that the freakish 6-foot-4 tight end with the giant wingspan will at least come close to the numbers he put up a year ago.
Other productive tight ends who should be available late to help fill your starting lineup include George Kittle, David Njoku, Dallas Goedert, Jake Fegurson and Brock Bowers. If you end up with one of those guys and are happy everywhere else, it should be a good season.
The Fantasy Football Do Not Draft List
This list often comes down to personal preference.
For instance, Saquon Barkley is a tremendous running back who should thrive in a high-powered Philadelphia offense this season. Personally, I have no interest in drafting him, especially as early as he is being selected. Barkly’s injuries have burned me severely twice, and this will be the first year that he hasn’t been “the guy” in his team’s offense.
How will the Eagles spread the ball around with players such as Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Barkley and Dallas Goedert on the field most of the time? Is Barkley going to get enough touches to warrant his high draft standing? How will he respond to being less involved in the offense? Will he stay healthy?
For whatever reason, no matter which big name player the Eagles bring in, formerly productive RBs in Philly always tend to get somewhat lost in the shuffle.
Keeping in mind that some of this is simply personal preference, here is my DND List. Of course, if some of the top guys on list drop far below their ADP I would consider taking them. Also keep in mind that I just prefer not to draft rookie WRs as players I’m counting on to be among my top-three receivers. Again, that’s just personal preference.
Players with asterisks are completely off limits for me.
Christian McCaffrey - RB
Bijan Robinson – RB
Breece Hall - RB
Saquon Barkley* - RB
Jahmyr Gibbs* - RB
James Cook – RB
Josh Jacobs – RB
Najee Harris* - RB
Jaylen Warren* - RB
James Conner – RB
Tony Pollard* - RB
Ezekiel Elliott* - RB
Ja’Marr Chase - WR
Cee Dee Lamb – WR
Marvin Harrison Jr.* - WR
Brandon Aiyuk - WR
Drake London* – WR
Michael Pittman – WR
Malik Nabers* - WR
Amari Cooper – WR
George Pickens* - WR
Tee Higgins - WR
Calvin Ridley – WR
Diontae Johnson* - WR
Courtland Sutton – WR
DeAndre Hopkin* - WR
Jordan Addison* – WR
Curtis Samuel – WR
Gabe Davis* – WR
Adam Thielen* – WR
Jordan Love* – QB
Aaron Rodgers* – QB
Deshaun Watson* – QB
Justin Herbert – QB
Kyle Pitts* – TE
Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Blueprint
Below is an outline of the plan I will take into every draft. It includes some options for going in a different direction as necessary. The key to having a good draft is being prepared enough that it is easy to deviate from the initial plan to capitalize on the mistakes of others and prevent panic drafting.
Elite Fantasy Quarterbacks
This is the cream of the crop. Every owner would be thrilled to have one of these guys, but not at the expense of other key positions. The only way I draft one of these players is if they drop much lower than their actual value or if I have three top offensive players already and am not thrilled with my draft options at any position at the time I can select one of these players:
Josh Allen
Jalen Hurts
Lamar Jackson
Anthony Richardson
Patrick Mahomes – I probably would not select Mahomes given that I’d prefer more of a dual threat with this high of a pick.
Fantasy QBs – Must Get 1-2
Assuming that no elite QB was taken, it is imperative to get two of these guys. Draft the second QB earlier than his ADP if the first QB taken is Daniels or Richardson:
Kyler Murray
Jayden Daniels
Brock Purdy
Caleb Williams – not if Daniels is picked first
Dak Prescott
Tua Tagovailoa
Jared Goff
Kirk Cousins
Matthew Stafford
Elite Fantasy Wide Receivers – Want 1-2
If you can get two of these guys, always go for it:
Tyreek Hill
Amon-Ra St. Brown
A.J. Brown
Garrett Wilson
Puka Nacua
Davante Adams
Next Tier Fantasy Wide Receivers – Must Get 1-2
If you only get one WR from the first group, getting two of these is the goal – or one of these with an elite TE:
Deebo Samuel
Nico Collins
Chris Olave
DK Metcalf
DJ Moore
Jaylen Waddle
Cooper Kupp
DeVonta Smith
Stefon Diggs
Zay Flowers
Rashee Rice
Terry McLaurin
Christian Kirk
Chris Godwin
Keenan Allen
Jacson Smith-Njigba
Fantasy Wide Receiver Depth Targets
Jaylen Reed
Christian Watson
Xavier Worthy
Rome Odunze
Hollywood Brown
Brian Thomas Jr.
Keon Coleman
Rashid Shaheed
Tyler Lockett
Jakobi Meyers
Romeo Doubs
Josh Palmer
Adonai Mitchell
Michael Wilson
DeMario Douglas
Hero Fantasy Running Backs – Want to Get 1
Take any of these players if you believe they are better than the available receivers at the time of the pick:
Jonathan Taylor
Derrick Henry
Travis Etienne
Kyren Williams (monitor injuries)
Isiah Pacheco
De’Von Achane
Volume Fantasy Running Backs – Must Get 1-2
If you don’t get one of the Hero RBs, getting two of these players is a must:
Kenneth Walker
Joe Mixon
Rachaad White
David Montgomery
Alvin Kamara
Raheem Mostert
Zamir White
D’Andre Swift
Brian Robinson Jr.
Javonte Williams
Zack Moss
Austin Ekeler
Fantasy Running Back Depth Targets
If you can grab Chubb as your RB4, do it. Take others once you are happy with top four WR and TE only:
Nick Chubb
Gus Edwards
Chuba Hubbard
Jerome Ford
JK Dobbins
Devin Singletary
Rico Dowdle
Chase Brown
Blake Corum
Trey Benson
MarShawn Lloyd
Jaylen Wright
Elijah Mitchell
Kimani Vidal
Jordan Mason
Elite Fantasy Tight Ends
One of these can be drafted after two top WRs have been picked if they are better choices than any WR or RB available:
Travis Kelce
Sam LaPorta
Draftable Fantasy Tight Ends – Must Get 1 (if no elite taken)
Mark Andrews
Evan Engram
Trey McBride
Dalton Kincaid
George Kittle
David Njoku
Dallas Goedert
Jake Ferguson
Brock Bowers
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