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StatLogic Sports Daily Hoops Hustle: College Chaos Doesn't Impact Picks & Edges for 1/30

Scott L.

Updated: Feb 1




It's been upset city lately in college hoops, baby, and none of us is immune.


Remember, there are no locks in the world of sports gambling, and if anyone who tells you there are is either full of it or has inside information. As we've seen this week, inside and sometimes illegal information also is a reality in the world of sports gambling.


There are so many factors none of us can control and so many more that we don't even know about, and never will. And maybe we don't wan to know about them.


This week, we watched a 90-percent free-throw shooter brick enough charity tosses for his team to win but not cover. Another top player started a game by missing 10 straight shots while his team shot 20 percent from beyond the arc. Another player, an All-American candidate, couldn't throw the ball in the ocean all game then caught fire in the final two minutes to drill three straight 3-pointers, including a half-court bank shot that forced overtime.

Teams with no conference wins won games. Teams with no conference losses lost games. Unranked teams beat ranked teams. It was college hoops chaos at its finest. Last night, a team led by 3 with 2.8 seconds left after missing a 3-pointer. Two players grabbed the rebound at the same time. It clearly was a held ball, but an official decided to send the trailing home team to the line and make things interesting by calling a foul. The free-throw shooter made the first shot and missed the second on purpose. Everyone boxed out, leaving the shooter free. An obvious box-out foul by the team in lead was ignored as a player on the trailing team was pushed and sent flying out of bounds. The shooter sprinted in and got the rebound and shot a layup that teetered on the edge of the rim before dropping.


One official half-heartedly blew his whistle as the ball fell through the hoop like he knew what he had done by calling the earlier foul. This one couldn't be ignored, though, and the team that was on the line with one foul shot left and trailing by 2 with 2.8 seconds left made this free throw to secure the miracle victory.


You can't make it up. And you also can't handicap it.


After cruising along at around a 70-percent success rate with our recommended picks since mid-August, some of this bad luck caught up with us this week. It happens to everyone, but as we've written here over and over, we know that, understand it and embrace it. Our singular goal is to provide our customers with a long-germ profit and a ROI that rivals any other investment options on the market today.

We've done that for two decades, and will strive to continue down that path. Our proprietary algorithm is proven, and we won't let a few crazy losses send us into a panic or cause us to alter our approach.


Meanwhile, our betting edges, which are games that don't make the cut to be recommended selections but still have performed very well over time, continue to plug along at nearly a 57-percent win rate since the beginning of college hoops season. They are 41-24 (63 percent) over the last three days, 59 percent over the past 15 days and 58 percent in the last 50 days. And our money line parlay options have won at a remarkable 74-percent rate since the start of the new year.


While our less-risky recommended picks are the way to go for guaranteed returns, we try hard to provide those of you who crave more action or can't handle very short odds with other non-recommended options to satisfy your cravings and help you be profitable.


As you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through that stringent set of parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.


Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so in our goal to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide potential parlay options that are strong bets that don't quite make the cut for us as well as other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.


Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering at around 56 to 57 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.



StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 1/31

Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability

None


StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 1/31

All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability

None


Parlay City

While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.


Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 151-54 since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15.



Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 1/31

Merrimack - LOSS

Columbia - LOSS

Marist - WIN



NBA:

N/A


NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:

598-458-14 (56.6%)


Jan. 31 Record: 6-3

Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1

Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1

Jan. 28 Record: 13-7

Jan. 27 Record: 8-1

Jan. 26 Record: 0-4

Jan. 25 Record: 21-17

Jan. 24 Record: 3-4

Jan. 23 Record: 8-6

Jan. 22 Record: 7-10

Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1

Jan. 20 Record: 6-3

Jan. 19 Record: 2-4

Jan. 18 Record: 20-14

Jan. 17 Record: 6-4

Jan. 16 Record: 15-6


Last 7 days: 76-49-2 (60.8%)

Last 16 days: 155-106-3 (59.4%)

Last 51 days: 447-329-11 (57.6%)



StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 1/31

Yale money line -155 at Princeton - WIN

Dayton +2.5 at St. Louis - WIN

St. Peter's -1 at Rider - LOSS

Niagara money line -165 at Canisius - WIN

Iona money line -105 at Manhattan - LOSS

Fairfield +12.5 at Quinnipiac - WIN

Dartmouth +10.5 at Cornell - LOSS

Akron money line +150 at Kent State - WIN

Indiana +12 at Purdue - WIN

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