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Scott L.

StatLogic Sports MLB All-Star Picks for 9/20



We had two Major League Baseball All-Star Picks that came through as winners on Thursday as both the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers rolled.


Los Angeles put up three touchdowns in a thrashing of the Marlins on the strength of an historic performance by Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani hit three homers, stole a pair of bases and had 10 RBI in a performance for the ages as he became the first player to record 50-plus home runs and 50-plus stolen bases in a MLB season.


That's three straight wins for our MLB All-Star Selections, which are the picks that our model tells us have a 60-percent or better win probability. StatLogic Superstar Selections are the picks that have a 70-percent or higher win probability. Our last three Superstar Picks also have won, and eight of our last nine combined Superstar and All-Star Selections have been winners.


Since launching this website on Aug. 16, our top recommended MLB picks are 32-13. That's a 71.1 winning percentage, which has returned a profit of 7.33 units. We also occasionally present some bonus picks, which do not meet the criteria to be All-Star or Superstar Selections and are not recommended but are considered strong plays nonetheless. Those picks have gone 7-3, bringing our overall record to 39-16 (70.9%, plus-9.37 units).


CLICK HERE to see our game-by-game results since Aug. 16.


Today, we have a pair of MLB All-Star Selections.


StatLogic Sports MLB All-Star Selections for 9/20

Baltimore Orioles -165 vs. Detroit Tigers (67% win probability) at 7:05 p.m.

Corbin Burnes (14-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Keider Montero (6-6, 4.60, 1.27)

The Orioles finally won a baseball game, so the injury-depleted team, which continues to get healthier, can breath a sigh of relief about that as well as about not having to face Detroit Ace Tarik Skubal in this weekend's big three-game series. They also missed out on seeing him last weekend in Detroit. Baltimore's magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 5, which means the Orioles could possibly lock it up at home this weekend vs. the red-hot Tigers.


That's an interesting thought for a team that has been seven games under .500 since peaking at 24 games above that mark on June 20. But coming off an emotional walk-off win, with a shot at clinching the postseason and not having to face Skubal, maybe it's not a stretch for them to think that way. Certainly the weight of the world will be off their shoulders after yesterday's victory, and they have ace Corbin Burnes on the mound vs. Keider Montero.


Burnes is undervalued at -165, most likely because he had a rough August with an era above 7.00. September has been a different story, however, as the right hander has posted a 1.50 ERA in his last three outings, allowing just 3 earned runs in 18 innings. Montero has been strong in the same span, compiling a 2.45 ERA, but his advanced stats continue to lag a pretty good distance behind Burnes's. numbers, especially on the road. Detroit has won four straight games entering the weekend and eight of its last 10, while Baltimore has gone 3-8 in its last 11 contests. But that's why you sign a guy like Burnes. He will be the best player on the field in a game that Baltimore needs to win. Two of the Orioles' three wins during their recent stretch came with him on the mound, and today he figures to be a good bet as well.


Atlanta Braves -188 at Miami Marlins (65% win probability) at 7:10 p.m.

Charlie Morton (8-8, 4.01 ERA, 1.297 WHIP) vs. Valente Bellozo (2-4, 3.70, 1.286)

Despite winning their last two games, the Braves continue their wildcard roller-coaster ride with the New York Mets, who hold a two-game lead over Atlanta in the race for the final postseason spot in the National League. New York has inched in front of Atlanta by going 16-4 in their last 20 games, but this weekend presents a golden opportunity for the Braves. And it may be their last opportunity.


Atlanta travels to Miami to take on a deflated Marlins squad that is playing a ton of prospects, has thrown in the towel on the season and is coming off an embarrassing 20-4 loss to the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Mets are hosting a Phillies team that is battling for the top postseason seed in the National League. On top of that, the Braves send veteran righty Charlie Morton, who has a ton of big-game experience, to the mound to face Valente Bellozo.


Bellozo has compiled a sparkling 2.16 ERA in September and a respectable 3.70 ERA for the season, but he should be a candidate for regression with an overall xERA of 5.08, an xFIP of 5.46 and a home xFIP of 5.89. All of Morton's advanced numbers are hovering around the 4.00 level, and he has allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 17.2 innings while striking out 21. Although Belozzo's recent ERA is comparable, he only has 7 strikeouts in his last 16.2 innings, which means the Braves are likely to put a lot of balls in play against a team that has not set the world on fire defensively in recent outings. Atlanta also has the third-best bullpen in the league with a 3.34 ERA compared to Miami's 4.23 ERA, and the Braves rank second in overall team ERA while the Marlins are second to last.




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