Happy new year!
Since Day 1 of the 2024-25 college hoops season, we've been evaluating games and point spreads, tracking results and determining which games likely have betting edge. We document those contests where we feel there are edges and keep track of the results so we can have a feel for the good teams, the weak teams, the underachievers and the overachievers as our algorithm data becomes more accurate. The more games that are played, the better the data becomes.
This eventually becomes the starting point for the daily process we go through in determining which picks are recommended to the public and/or our clients. We narrow the games down to the ones that we feel might present a significant betting edge before running the numbers on those games.
After analyzing as many as 50 different statistical categories and other factors for each contest, our model proceeds to provide us with win probabilities for whichever games we run. Percentages are provided for spread bets, money-line bets and totals.
From there. we throw out any games that are below 60-percent win probability and then apply a rigorous set of rules to each contest to determine which ones meet our final criteria. Information such as injuries, rest, coaching matchups, styles of play and pace, recent form and other data points are included in this process.
Once the process is complete, hopefully we are left with a few games that become recommended picks - and perhaps one or two that narrowly miss the cut. Bets with a 60 percent or better win probability are released as All-Star Picks, while selections that carry a 70 percent or better win probability are released as Superstar Picks.
Occasionally a bet that narrowly misses the cut may be posted as a bonus pick, and there are times where we may have a pick that is so strong but with odds so short that we may pair it with an All-Star pick or bonus selection as part of a parlay.
We usually don't recommend parlays, but we realize there are times when the juice makes betting a certain side prohibitive for some people. When that happens, although we may not recommend the parlay, we at least want to help those folks have the best chance of winning if that's the direction they choose to go.
So far in our tracking of college basketball games since the season opened in early November, the games we have determined to have betting edges have posted a record of 359-278-8 (56.4 percent) .
That's a pretty good starting point before we even run the games through the algorithm.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 1/1
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
Youngstown State money line -230 vs. IUPUI (70%) - WIN
Missouri State -200 vs. Valparaiso (73%) - LOSS
StatLogic Sports All-Star Pick for 1/1
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Furman -9.5 vs. Western Carolina (65%) - WIN
Villanova money line -115 vs. Butler (65%) - WIN
While we usually don't recommend parlays, and it decreases the win probabilities, to combine picks, for those who aren't interested in laying the juice on money line bets, it is still a strong play to parlay two Superstar Picks or a Superstar Pick and an All-Star Pick.
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
359-278-8 (56.4%)
Jan. 1 Record: 6-4-1
Dec. 31 Record: 11-12
Dec. 30 Record: 9-7
Dec. 29 Record: 14-10
Dec. 28 Record: 13-8
Dec. 24-27: Off Days
Dec. 23 Record: 2-2-0
Dec. 22 Record: 12-11-0
Dec. 21 Record: 15-16-2
Dec. 20 Record: 5-4-0
Dec. 19 Record: 4-3-0
Dec. 18 Record: 22-13-0
Dec. 17 Record: 18-9-0
Dec. 16 Record: 6-5-0
Dec. 15 Record: Off Day
Dec. 14 Record: 17-15-2
Dec. 13 Record: 4-3
Dec. 12 Record: 5-2
Dec. 11 Record: 5-5
Stat-Logic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 1/1
IPFW +3 at Northern Kentucky - WIN
Miami money line -125 at Boston College - LOSS
UNC Greensboro +2.5 at Wofford - WIN
California +14.5 at Pittsburgh - WIN
UConn -11 at DePaul - WIN
Clemson -10 vs. Stanford - WIN
North Carolina money line +105 vs. Louisville - LOSS
Chattanooga money line -155 at Mercer - LOSS
Indiana State +3.5 vs. Bradley - WIN
Belmont +6 at Northern Iowa - PUSH
Howard +14 at Yale - LOSS
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