We take a look at every single college basketball on the schedule every night. By using available data and a strict filtering progress, we are able to determine which games might present betting edges for us to examine more closely.
Then, after analyzing as many as 50 different statistical categories and other factors for each contest, our proprietary algorithm proceeds to provide us with win probabilities for whichever games we run. Percentages are provided for spread bets, money-line bets and totals.
From there. we throw out any games that are below 60-percent win probability and then apply a rigorous set of rules and guidelines to each contest to determine which ones meet our final criteria. Information such as injuries, rest, coaching matchups, styles of play and pace, recent form and other data points are included in this process.
Sometimes we receive more information or there is breaking news that we add back into the mix and re-run the game to ensure that we get the most accurate win probability.
Once the process is complete, hopefully we are left with a few games that become recommended picks - and perhaps one or two that narrowly miss the cut. Bets with a 60 percent or better win probability are released as All-Star Picks, while selections that carry a 70 percent or better win probability are released as Superstar Picks.
Occasionally a bet that narrowly misses the cut may be posted as a bonus pick, and there are times where we may have a pick that is so strong but with odds so short that we may pair it with an All-Star pick or bonus selection as part of a parlay.
We usually don't recommend parlays, but we realize there are times when the short odds for one of our recommended picks makes betting a certain side prohibitive for some people. When that happens, although we may not recommend the parlay, we at least want to help those folks have the best chance of winning if that's the direction they choose to take.
So far in our tracking of college basketball games since the season opened in early November, the games we have determined to have betting edges have compiled a record of 370-284-8Â (56.6 percent) .
That's a pretty good starting point before we even run the games through our model.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 1/2
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
UNC Wilimington money line -240 vs. Towson (70%) - LOSS
StatLogic Sports All-Star Pick for 1/1
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
TBD
While we usually don't recommend parlays, and it decreases the win probabilities, to combine picks, for those who aren't interested in laying the juice on money line bets, it often is still a strong play to parlay two of our picks together for a better payout. Do that at your own risk, however.
Potential Money Line Parlay Partners for 1/2
Hofstra vs. William & Mary - LOSS
Elon vs. North Carolina A&T - WIN
Northern Colorado vs. Weber State - WIN
Purdue vs. Minnesota - WIN
Oregon vs. Illinois - LOSS
Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic - WIN
South Alabama vs. Georgia State - WIN
Drexel at Campbell - LOSS
Robert Morris at Detroit - LOSS
NBA:
Celtics vs. Timberwolves - WIN
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
370-284-8 (56.6%)
Jan. 2 Record: 11-6-0
Jan. 1 Record: 6-4-1
Dec. 31 Record: 11-12
Dec. 30 Record: 9-7
Dec. 29 Record: 14-10
Dec. 28 Record: 13-8
Dec. 24-27: Off Days
Dec. 23 Record: 2-2-0
Dec. 22 Record: 12-11-0
Dec. 21 Record: 15-16-2
Dec. 20 Record: 5-4-0
Dec. 19 Record: 4-3-0
Dec. 18 Record: 22-13-0
Dec. 17 Record: 18-9-0
Dec. 16 Record: 6-5-0
Dec. 15 Record: Off Day
Dec. 14 Record: 17-15-2
Dec. 13 Record: 4-3
Dec. 12 Record: 5-2
Dec. 11 Record: 5-5
Stat-Logic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 1/2
Troy money line -142 at Appalachian State - WIN
Hampton +10 at Charleston - LOSS
Delaware +5.5 at Northeastern - WIN
Stony Brook +6.5 at Monmouth - LOSS
Memphis money line -165 at Florida Atlantic - WIN
South Alabama -4 at Georgia State - WIN
Drexel money line -180 at Campbell - LOSS
Northwestern +5 at Penn State - WIN
Western Kentucky +9 at Liberty - WIN
Illinois State +6 at Murray State - WIN
UMKC money line -180 vs. South Dakota - WIN
UC-Davis +1.5 at UC-Bakersfield - LOSS
Washington +6 vs. Maryland - WIN
Oregon State -3 at Loyola Marymount - LOSS
Pacific +13 vs. San Francisco - WIN
San Diego +13 vs. Santa Clara - WIN
Oregon money line -190 vs. Illinois - LOSS
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