We take a look at every single college basketball on the schedule every night. By using available data and a strict filtering progress, we are able to determine which games might present betting edges for us to examine more closely.
Those edges are presented in this space, along with any recommended picks from our proprietary algorithm, several times a week. Most of them will miss the cut to be recommended selections, because we have a very stringent set of requirements that must be met for a game to be released as an All-Star or Superstar Pick.
But as we have tracked these games with edges over time, it came to our attention that they, too, are very solid picks that provide a nice ROI over the long term. So, while our reputation has been built on providing only a certain level of picks that win at a very high percentage and provide an annual ROI for our top investor clients at a rate that exceeds most - if not all - available other investment opportunities, we didn't want to ignore the results from the other selections.
Hopefully, by making some of that information available - and allowing potential customers to choose the selections they might want to use - we will be able to service a wider range of clients and help more people gamble responsibly and be profitable. The betting-edge picks we don't recommend are always "bet at your own risk," but as you can see below, the results are very solid.
After analyzing as many as 50 different statistical categories and other factors for each contest, our proprietary algorithm proceeds to provide us with win probabilities for whichever games we run. Percentages are provided for spread bets, money-line bets and totals.
From there. we throw out any games that are below 60-percent win probability and then apply a rigorous set of rules and guidelines to each contest to determine which ones meet our final criteria. Information such as injuries, rest, coaching matchups, styles of play and pace, recent form and other data points are included in this process.
Sometimes we receive more information or there is breaking news that we add back into the mix and re-run the game to ensure that we get the most accurate win probability.
Once the process is complete, hopefully we are left with a few games that become recommended picks - and perhaps one or two that narrowly miss the cut. Bets with a 60 percent or better win probability that meet all of our requirements are released as All-Star Picks, while selections that carry a 70 percent or better win probability are released as Superstar Picks.
Bets that narrowly miss the cut may be posted as a bonus picks, while the other games with smaller, less-convincing edges will appear here as well. There are times when we may have a pick that is so strong, but with odds so short, that we may pair it with an All-Star pick or bonus selection as part of a parlay.
We usually don't recommend parlays, but we realize there are times when the short odds for one of our recommended picks makes betting a certain side prohibitive for some people. When that happens, although we may not recommend the parlay, we at least want to help those folks have the best chance of winning if that's the direction they choose to take.
So far in our tracking of college basketball games since the season opened in early November, the games we have determined to have betting edges have compiled a record of 408-311-9 (57.0 percent).
That's a pretty good starting point before we even run the games through our model.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 1/5
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
Wagner -2.5 vs. Fairleigh Dickinson (70%) - LOSS
StatLogic Sports All-Star Pick for 1/4
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Kansas - 4 at Central Florida (68%) - WIN
Holy Cross +7 at American (60% )- LOSS
While we usually don't recommend parlays, and it decreases the win probabilities, to combine picks, for those who aren't interested in laying the juice on money line bets, it often is still a strong play to parlay two of our picks together for a better payout. Do that at your own risk, however.
Potential Money Line Parlay Partners for 1/5
Money line parlay teams went 15-0 on 1/4 & 1/5:
Kansas at Central Florida - WIN
Purdue vs. Northwestern - WIN
Mount St. Mary's vs. Niagara - WIN
LIU Brooklyn vs. Chicago State - WIN
Boston University vs. Army - WIN
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
 408-311-9 (57.0%)
Jan. 5 Record: 6-3-0
Jan. 4 Record: 21-15-1
Jan. 3 Record: 5-6-0
Jan. 2 Record: 11-6-0
Jan. 1 Record: 6-4-1
Dec. 31 Record: 11-12
Dec. 30 Record: 9-7
Last 7 days: 69-53-2 (56.6%)
Last 26 days: 211-159-5 (57.0%)
Stat-Logic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 1/5
Indiana +8 at Penn State - WIN
Providence +14.5 at UConn - WIN
Siena money line -145 vs. Iona - LOSS
Rider money line -125 vs. Manhattan - LOSS
Drake -9.5 vs. Murray State - LOSS
Maryland +4.5 vs. Oregon - WIN
Loyola MD money line -125 vs. Lehigh - WIN
Boston University money line -140 vs. Army - WIN
Navy money line -140 Lafayette - WIN
Comments