By Scott L. - SL Sports Staff
We're down to the final few weeks of the college basketball regular season, and many games take on added meaning as the NCAA Tournament bubble watch intensifies. One upset win or one bad loss during the next two weeks can make or break a team's entire season, so the intensity and competitiveness of matchups that might have been throwaway games a few weeks ago ratchets up considerably.
One popular betting theory is to put money on teams that are "playing for something" over teams that "have nothing to play for." On the face of it, that sounds reasonable since you are guaranteed to get a team's best effort if something is on the line, but effort doesn't always equate to execution. Teams with nothing to lose that are feeling no pressure can be extremely dangerous, especially the longer they hang around during a game and keep their opponent within striking distance.
While teams with something at stake are likely to come out competing hard on defense and sacrificing their bodies for every rebound and loose ball, the pressure continues to mount as the game goes on if they can't put away their opponent. A close, meaningful game can lead to tentative passes, unforced turnovers, missed easy shots and bricked free throws. Sometimes those teams may even try too hard and try to force the issue, making bad decisions offensively and committing silly fouls on the defensive end.
The point is that when a team with superior talent that needs a win is matched up against a less-talented team that is playing out the string, betting on the stronger side seems like the obvious choice. Hopefully, we have all learned by now that anything that looks too good to be true or seems like a can't-miss proposition often requires a thorough investigation. That's advice for everyday life as much as it is for sports gambling.
There are no locks. Nothing in sports is guaranteed. That's why we play the games, why Las Vegas has so many modern and tall beautiful buildings, and what makes following sports such a popular pastime.
That said, there are plenty of players and teams more than ready for their seasons to end and to head to Florida for spring break. The trick is to find those teams along with the ones that may be starting to put it all together after a season of underachieving or teams that might be playing for coaches who are leaving or possibly on the way out (hi Indiana).
There is no exact science to this, but a look at how various analytics have played out over the course of the long season to see if a team's offensive or defensive efficiency numbers have been on a steady incline for more than a few games as the postseason approaches can provide some helpful insight. Also, a check of which teams have won a lot of close games vs. those that have lost many tight contests can be very revealing as regression always seems to be right around the corner.
There are luck analytics, too, so maybe some of the teams with sparkling records really should have won several fewer games - or maybe most of their wins have come against teams they were supposed to beat and not against the top teams on their schedules or in their league.
One area that we feel pretty confident in is the NCAA Tournament bubble and which teams can't afford to lose any games, which teams need to pull off some upsets and which teams are in but just jockeying for a better seed.
So, let's start there and then we can start figuring out the rest as we begin to handicap games during this final stretch of the season.
At the bottom of this article you will find our latest StatLogic Sports Power 75 College Basketball Rankings. These are used as part of the process for us when we narrow down the games we are going to run through or model every day, and they also serve as a good starting point for determining who should be in the final 68-team NCAA Tournament field. But as we know, it's not always the "best 68" that get in, so this rating system also serves as a starting point as we try to project what the final tourney bracket might look like.
In addition to these rankings, we look closely at other analytical models that might be considered by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as well as metrics such as strength of schedule, quality wins, bad losses, etc.
Our tournament projections are based on what we believe the field should be based on the combination of factors we considered and are NOT a guess at what the unpredictable, often-inconsistent Selection Committee will produce on Selection Sunday. As we get closer to that much-anticipated day, we will try to predict the actual field instead of who we think is most deserving.
Unfortunately, those usually aren't the same.
Last Four Teams In
1) Georgia
2) San Diego State
3) Vanderbilt
4) Nebraska
Last Four Byes
1) Oklahoma
2) West Virginia
3) Arkansas
4) Utah State
Note: We are including conference-tournament favorites Memphis, VCU and New Mexico and have them as top-10 seeds.
First Four Out
1) Boise State
2) Indiana
3) North Carolina
4) Cincinnati
SMU actually is our fourth team out according to the numbers, but given their remaining schedule. the only path into the field for them might be to win the ACC championship - or to make a deep run and beat at least two Quad 1 teams.
Projected Seedings
1 - Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
2 - Tennessee, Alabama, Iowa State, Texas Tech
3 - Arizona, Texas A&M, St. John's, Wisconsin
4 - Michigan, Kentucky, Purdue, Michigan State
5 - Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, St. Mary's
6 - Marquette, Louisville, Kansas, Clemson
7 - UCLA, Mississippi State, Oregon, Illinois
8 - Ohio State, BYU, Creighton, Baylor
9 - Memphis, New Mexico, Texas, UConn
10 - Gonzaga, Arkansas, VCU, Utah State
11 - Nebraska, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Georgia, San Diego State
It's still a little early to spend a ton of time placing teams into regions and brackets given the number of upsets that are bound to happen and how much is likely to change during the next three weeks. But here is a look at the outlook for a few of the bubble teams:
Boise State
We have Boise as the first team out heading into the final weeks leading up to the Selection Show. The Broncos have been playing very well, however, in a strong Mountain West Conference. Their play, combined with the strong recent play of teams like New Mexico, Utah State, San Diego State, Nevada and even Colorado State, helps push their ratings up even faster than normally possible. Boise concludes the regular season with games against a Utah State team we have safely in the field, Colorado State, Fresno State and Air Force. Wins in all four of those games and a win vs. one of the Mountain West likely NCAA Tourney teams in the conference tournament might get them over the top. In theory, a team needs to be among the top 46 in the nation to get in, and as of now the Broncos are within that number according to a few models. They are 6-6 vs. Q1 and Q2 teams combined and have won six of their last seven games, with the lone loss coming against San Diego State, one of our last teams in the field. The Selection Committee also has been very good to the Mountain West in recent years.
Indiana
The Hoosiers have started to play well finally since head coach Mike Woodson announced he would not be returning. Their victory against Purdue Sunday has them very close to breaking into the field, and they now have won two of their last three, including a victory at Michigan State, a team we have as a No. 4 seed. Indiana's loss during that span was a four-point decision against UCLA, who we have penciled in as a seven seed. The Hoosiers built a pretty good resume early in the year but appeared disinterested before the Woodson announcement, losing five straight and seven of eight before the MSU win. The Hoosiers have four Quad 1 wins and are a combined 7-11 vs. Q1 and Q2 opponents. Their strength of schedule is No. 23. Their four Q1 victories are tops among our first-four teams out, and they have a chance to add to that total with remaining games against Oregon and Ohio State. Wins against those two and Washington likely would propel them into the field pending the Big Ten Tournament.
North Carolina
UNC was supposed to be a top-10 team and has been far from that, which already is a strong argument against them getting into the tournament. In addition, the Tar Heels had played poorly over an extended period, dropping five of seven contests at one point before getting back on track in recent weeks. They have won their last three games, but those wins have come against bad Syracuse, NC State and Virginia teams. UNC lost to surging Clemson, a lock for the field, by 20 in their last game against a quality opponent and had beaten a Pittsburgh team that has fallen far out of NCAA Tournament consideration right before that. Losses to non-tourney teams Wake Forest and Stanford were part of the losing skid, and North Carolina is just 1-10 against Quad 1 opponents. The Tar Heels do conclude the regular season with a game at consensus No. 1-seed Duke, but other matchups against Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech will not help them. A loss to one of those teams probably would drop them from consideration. It looks like a win against Duke and possibly an ACC Tournament victory against either Clemson, Duke or Louisville might get them serious consideration or a close loss to Duke and a run to the ACC finals.
SMU
SMU looks good in the analytical models, as the Mustangs are ranked among the top 40 in many, but the their schedule is ranked 83rd in the nation, and they are 0-5 vs. Quad 1 teams. Zero wins against Q1 opponents won't get it done, and SMU only has non-tourney foes Cal, Stanford, Florida State and Syracuse on the docket before the ACC Tournament. It's going to take a couple Quad 1 wins and a run to the ACC finals to get them into serious consideration it appears.
Georgia
Despite being ranked among the top 45 by most models and having the 30th-toughest schedule in the nation, the Bulldogs are barely hanging on to the last spot in our field. After a fast start in which they won 12 of their first 13 and 14 of their first 16 contests - including a win over a top-10 St. John's team - the Dogs have limped down the stretch with four straight losses and setbacks in nine of their past 11 outings. Those early wins and the powerful SEC are enough to keep Georgia in the mix, but they are just 2-11 vs. Quad 1 opponents and may need to win a game or two against teams of that level to secure a tourney berth. They close out the regular season with games against Florida, Vanderbilt, Texas and South Carolina. Vandy also is among our last four teams in the field at this point, so that may turn out to be what amounts to a play-in game. The Bulldogs most likely control their own destiny given their upcoming schedule, however, which gives them a leg up on the teams on the outside of the bubble.
StatLogic Sports NCAA Basketball Power 75 as of Feb. 24
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Duke | 99.70 |
2 | Auburn | 99.65 |
3 | Houston | 99.17 |
4 | Alabama | 98.48 |
5 | Florida | 98.28 |
6 | Tennessee | 98.06 |
7 | Texas Tech | 95.90 |
8 | Arizona | 95.88 |
9 | Purdue | 95.69 |
10 | Iowa State | 95.63 |
11 | Texas A&M | 95.39 |
12 | Michigan State | 95.19 |
13 | St. John's | 95.06 |
14 | Wisconsin | 94.97 |
15 | Missouri | 94.88 |
16 | Maryland | 94.60 |
17 | Michigan | 94.47 |
18 | Kentucky | 93.99 |
19 | St. Mary's | 93.60 |
20 | Mississippi | 93.49 |
21 | Marquette | 93.43 |
22 | Illinois | 93.13 |
23 | Gonzaga | 93.10 |
24 | Clemson | 92.74 |
25 | Kansas | 92.72 |
26 | Mississippi State | 92.68 |
27 | UCLA | 92.26 |
28 | Baylor | 91.89 |
29 | Creighton | 91.71 |
30 | Louisville | 91.60 |
31 | BYU | 91.42 |
32 | Oregon | 91.39 |
33 | Uconn | 91.36 |
34 | Ohio State | 91.02 |
35 | Texas | 90.03 |
36 | Vanderbilt | 90.02 |
37 | Memphis | 89.66 |
38 | Arkansas | 89.63 |
39 | VCU | 89.50 |
40 | Nebraska | 89.28 |
41 | New Mexico | 89.12 |
42 | Georgia | 89.05 |
43 | Oklahoma | 88.72 |
44 | SMU | 88.72 |
45 | Utah State | 88.34 |
46 | Villanova | 87.96 |
47 | West Virginia | 87.87 |
48 | Indiana | 87.62 |
49 | Cincinnati | 87.48 |
50 | Boise State | 87.25 |
51 | North Carolina | 87.10 |
52 | Xavier | 87.00 |
53 | Kansas State | 86.88 |
54 | Wake Forest | 86.69 |
55 | San Diego State | 86.56 |
56 | UC San Diego | 86.46 |
57 | USC | 85.37 |
58 | Penn State | 84.99 |
59 | Pittsburgh | 84.98 |
60 | Santa Clara | 84.81 |
61 | Rutgers | 84.77 |
62 | Iowa | 84.73 |
63 | Northwestern | 84.56 |
64 | Arizona State | 84.48 |
65 | Colorado State | 84.36 |
66 | Irvine | 83.94 |
67 | McNeese State | 83.80 |
68 | Oregon State | 83.72 |
69 | North Texas | 83.67 |
70 | San Francisco | 83.59 |
71 | South Carolina | 83.52 |
72 | Drake | 83.50 |
73 | Minnesota | 83.45 |
74 | LSU | 83.44 |
75 | UCF | 83.31 |
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