Fantasy Football Draft Guide: The Draft Day Plan

By Scott L. - SL Sports Staff

Hopefully you’ve been following along as we’ve posted our NFL Fantasy Footall Draft Guide in three parts: The Rookies, DO NOT DRAFT List and the Target List.

In this article we pull it all together in presenting our Draft Day Plan, which will outline the strategy we will use when it’s go time. 

There will be fewer words here and more of a basic outline of how we might progress through the draft it it pans out the way we hope along with a few hypothetical pivots blended in. 

Keep in mind that this is based on a 12-team draft that is at least 0.5 PPR. The plan can easily be adapted for larger and smaller drafts. We only play PPR leagues, so all of this may not be completely applicable to leagues with standard scoring. 

Round 1 - Let’s Be Elite

Round 1 targets: Jahmyr Gibbs, Nico Collins, Derrick Henry

Round 1 pick if available: Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson

Hope they fall to Round 2: Christian McCaffrey, Amon Ra St. Brown, Brian Thomas

Not aș interested: Cee Dee Lamb, Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacka, Malik Nabers

Ideally, we want to leave the first round with either Henry, Collins or Gibbs

We’ve seen McCaffrey drop considerably as the season has approached, and we would jump on him in the late first round or early second if we can’t get one of our targets and he’s available.

Thomas is one of our second-round targets, but we’d consider him late first round if we can’t get Collins, Gibbs or Henry. We would pay up and take Henry later in Round 1 if Gibbs and Collins are gone. We consider him the safest RB pick, and he has gone from a middle second-round pick to top 10 lately. We don’t love Lamb, but obviously if he’s available late in the first round he becomes a value pick. 

Clearly, if we’re in a position to take Chase or Robinson we would do it since that means we either had a top-two pick or one of them had dropped and provided great value. Justin Jefferson we’d take only below pick five because of his preseason injury issues. Normally he would be a top three. We prefer Gibbs to him at Nos. 3, 4 or 5, but he is not dropping below that. 

Round 2 - Go With the Flow

Round 2 targets: Brian Thomas, Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs 

DO NOT DRAFT: De’Von Achane, Drake London

Not that interested: AJ Brown, Ashton Jeanty

Grab ‘em if they fall: St. Brown, McCaffrey

Not yet: Any of the “elite four” quarterbacks or the “elite two” tight ends. 

In a perfect world, we exit Round 2 with two players from this group: Henry, Gibbs, Collins, Thomas, Irving, Brown, Taylor and Jacobs. If we can’t get Collins or Thomas - and another WR1 doesn’t fall into our lap - we might end up going with two running backs to open the draft. We believe that all of the target RBs listed here have the ability to be elite or Tier 1 backs this season, and we much prefer that scenario over reaching for a WR we don’t love or an unpredictable talent like London. 

We have nothing against Jeanty; he’s an amazing talent. We just prefer to go with players we have no doubts about over a rookie this early in a draft.

QBs & TEs

In many drafts, the top four QBs are being taken late in the second round or early in the third. Jalen Hurts has dropped to the fourth or even the fifth round occasionally (he's probably a no-brainer pick if you can get him that late). Even though Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels and Hurts are true Tier 1 elite players who separate themselves from the rest of the quarterback pack, we don’t see a need to take one of them that early at the risk of setting ourselves way back at the other positions. 

The same goes for Tier 1 tight ends Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. If we can get two of our top targets at RB and WR in the first two rounds, depending on how the draft proceeds, we would consider any of those players in the third round if we aren’t happy with what’s available at the other positions. 

For example, if we were to draft Henry and Thomas, which has happened in a couple of mocks, we would take a long look at either Allen, Jackson or Daniels. The same gees for Bowers and McBride if one of those QBs isn’t available, we have a legit RB1 like Henry or Gibbs and the wide receivers remaining aren’t worth a third-round selection. 

Round 3 - WR Please or Plan B

Targets: Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, James Cook, Chuba Hubbard

DO NOT DRAFT: Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Kenneth Walker, Tee Higgins

If the targets are gone: Kyren Williams, Alvin Kamara, Omarion Hampton

Next WRs up: Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin

If the targets and Plan B are gone: Elite QB (not Hurts) or elite TE (not Kittle) if any are available. 

We really want to get one of the targets here, and we love McConkey, JSN and Cook. Hubbard is a solid volume back, too. It could be any of those four players as long as we have at one RB and one WR alrady.

If we have two RBs and none of the target WRs are left and we can’t get an elite QB or TE as a backup plan, we probably need to reach for a WR. Garrett Wilson is the top likely choice here, although we have so many questions about the Jets’ ability to get him the ball as much as they should. He’s a second-round talent, though, so we’d take him. Terry McLaurin is the next-best player and also is at least a third-round talent, so we would look at him next with fingers crossed that he suits up Week 1.

If the running back situation is bleak and Williams, Kamara or Hampton is available, they would be acceptable picks. All three will get volume, but all three have questions. Kamara has to stay healthy, Hampton is a rookie and Williams sometimes is touchdown dependent. 

Round 4 - Solid WR2 or Value WR3

We preface this by pointing out we have recently seen Jalen Hurts slide to the fourth (and even the fifth) round, and it that were to happen we most likely would pluck him here. Same for Jayden Daniels if God hands us a miracle. 

Targets: DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Marvin Harrison Jr., Garret Wilson (only if he falls this far and the others are gone)

Next in line: Mike Evans, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, James Conner

DO NOT DRAFT: Breece Hall, Xavier Worthy, DeVonta Smith

Too Early: George Kittle, TreVeyon Henderson, Joe Burrow

We feel that a wide receiver almost certainly is going to be the play here. Now that the elite TE window has shut, don’t panic and draft Kittle. Please. There will be tight ends we love such as Evan Engram and Tyler Warren available much later. Players like Dalton Kincaid and Jonnu Smith will be around even longer. We love Kittle as a player, but it’s just not worth ignoring the WR talent still available here to get a tight end. Our thoughts are similar for Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, who will be popular selections over the next few rounds. 

We also love James Conner as a player and would only take him if no acceptable wide receivers are available when we pick. Don’t force it with him, though. We’d almost prefer a reach at WR here for someone like Jameson Williams.

Round 5 - Volume RB Time

Heading into Round 4, the most likely scenarios are that we would either have two WRs and two RBs or three WRs and one RB. It’s possible we could have an elite QB or elite TE and only 1 WR or 1 RB. Obviously, the priority would be whatever we only have one of, but we are NOT taking a QB or TE in the fifth round unless someone like Hurts drops this far. Take him if he’s there. We may pay up for a volume RB here, too, if we only have one RB. 

If players such as Conner, Kamara or any previously listed acceptable or target picks drop to this level, it’s a no-brainer to take one of them unless overloaded at that position. 

Targets: D’Andre Swift, Isiah Pacheco, Jakobi Meyers, Ricky Pearsall, Jameson Williams

Next in line: Any players listed as targets or acceptable picks earlier who have dropped this far (Hurts at QB, Henderson at RB for sure; no other QBs and no TEs, though)  

Worth considering: David Montgomery, Tony Pollard (if Tyjae Spears starts the season injured), Aaron Jones, Zay Flowers, Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle

DO NOT DRAFT: RJ Harvey, Kaleb Johnson, George Pickens, Rashee Rice

We want to leave this round with either Swift or Pacheco or another RB like Henderson who has dropped. If the only RBs available are Pollard or Montgomery, we’d probably go Pollard first but would prefer to wait on them. Jones would be a last resort if our RB situation is bad. In fact, waiting a few rounds to see if he’s there or to grab Jordan Mason might be a better idea, especially if we can get a volume WR such as Meyers or Pearsall or an upside receiver like Williams. 

We have nothing against Harvey or Johnson other than they are rookies with veterans looking over their shoulders who play for teams that traditionally have split up the RB workload. Pickens is too volatile for our taste, and Rice will be suspended at some point. 

Rounds 6-7 - Complete the Lineup

Over the next two rounds we are looking to complete our starting lineup. We consider a completed lineup to have a QB, two running backs, three receivers, one flex and a tight end. So, draft one of our targets based on current needs. We prefer to have the RB and WR positions filled before drafting a QB or TE unless somehow one of the top-tier guys in either position fell to us already. 

As always, any targeted player or acceptable earlier-round pick who survives to this point is fair game. We are willing to pay up for the QB we are targeting or one of the target tight ends if our next selection is so far away that we think those players are likely to be gone. If a previously targeted player is available and would give us an extra running back or receiver, it is likely we would make that move first and then try to fill the TE and QB spots in future rounds.

Targets: Tyrone Tracy, Bill Croskey-Merritt, Aaron Jones, Zach Charbonnet, Deebo Samuel, Emeka Egbuka, Rome Odunze, Tyler Warren, Evan Engram, Kyler Murray

Next in Line: Baker Mayfield

DO NOT DRAFT: Travis Hunter, Joe Mixon, Trattoria McMillan, Brian Robinson, Jordan Addison, Chris Godwin, Brandon Aiyuk, 

Murray is our No. 1 targeted mid-round QB if we have no quarterback to this point. There is no need to worry about taking him until players like Bo Nix and Baker Mayfield are taken, however. At that point, the most likely next QBs up would be Murray and Justin Fields. We have too many questions about Fields and would only consider him several rounds later. 

Warren is our No. 1 targeted tight end, but Engram is a close second. Again, there is no reason to consider them until we see TJ Hockenson and Sam LaPorta selected. We probably can wait until Travis Kelce is picked, too, before jumping on Warren. Warren and Engram may go after Andrews as well, but be careful because once one of them is picked, the others are sure to follow soon thereafter. If we miss out on Warren, getting Engram ASAP is preferred. We are okay paying up a bit for Warren or Engram to lock in one of them.

Missing out on Murray means that we would have to turn our attention to a QB group that includes Dak Prescott, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love a few rounds later. If we don’t grab Engram or Warren, immediately pounce on Andrews or even Tucker Kraft. We would prefer to avoid those guys, but if we don’t get any of them the drop off to players like Dalton Kincaid and David Njoku seems pretty significant. Kincaid would be our top late-round TE choice, so we would wait on making that move for a few rounds if he’s the only one available. 

We would love to get any of the targeted RBs as a third back or any of those WRs as a No. 3 or 4. This is the part of the draft where managers really have to pay attention and be able to think on their feet. Preparation is key. 

Rounds 8 and Beyond - Filling the Bench

These are presented in order of preference for the remainder of the draft. Players not listed either are on our DO NOT DRAFT List or are guys we aren't seriously considering.

QB: Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Cam Ward

RB: Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, JK Dobbins, Jordan Mason, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Trey Benson, Ollie Gordon

WR: Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Jauan Jennings, Khalil Shakir, Jerry Jeudy, Rashid Shaheed, Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Rashod Bateman, Hollywood Brown, Darnell Mooney, Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, Adam Thielen, Adonai Mitchell

TE: Dalton Kincaid, Jonnu Smith, Kyle Pitts, Brenton Strange, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, Isaiah Likely (IR stash)