By Scott L. - SL Sports Staff
It's pretty simple for Week 15 of the National Football League season.
Either you're in the playoffs and competing for a full-season fantasy championship or you didn't make the cut and are looking to redeem yourself by winning some cash in DFS. Or, like us, maybe both scenarios describe your plight.
It's hard to believe, but we've almost reached the end of the road, but today is not the time to rest. There are championships and cash prizes to be won, so let's go get them.
Since the theme is keeping it simple, here we go with our advice for the week. Note that from a DFS perspective we are considering players from the FanDuel DFS main slate, which includes the Sunday night game. Remember that having the hammer by making sure you have a SNF player in your lineup is always a good strategy, although not required.
Pay-up Quarterbacks
The pay-up options according to ALL the experts are Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. It's hard to go wrong with Lamar given the matchup against the Giants, but while a point spread of 17 implies the Ravens will score plenty of points, there will be a large dose of Derrick Henry today. Lamar likely won't need to be risked carrying the ball very much, and if the Ravens build a huge league they aren't going to risk injury by playing Lamar or Henry in the second half. And if those guys still are in the game in the fourth quarter it's probably because the offense is struggling.
If you're choosing between those two, Allen is the choice for us.
Value Top-Tier Quarterbacks
When you've got consistent, safe pay-up options like Jackson and Allen, many DFS players will just insert one and build their lineups around them. This week, however, people are sleeping on Jayden Daniels in a BIG way. He has a great matchup vs. the Saints, and even when the Commanders' offense has struggled, Daniels generally has surpassed the 20 and 25-point plateaus. That will be his floor today, but his ceiling is very high. He would be our top option this week for $800 less than Allen. Our next pick would be Joe Burrow, who has a great matchup vs. Tennessee and has put up 25 or more points in five straight outings. He doesn't have the upside of Daniels because of the running aspect, but if you want 25 sure points while saving $500 to $900, he's an outstanding pick. We will have Burrow or Daniels in most lineups.
Value Upside Quarterback
Because of the running upside, the matchup and the price ($7,800), Kyler Murray will find his way into some of our lineups for sure, most likely stacked with tight end Trey McBride. While he doesn't run as much as he once did, the fact that he can and will do what he has to do to win makes him very attractive at this week's price. Facing a bad New England team only helps his case, and the Cardinals are in must-win territory.
Value Volume Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert is the name you will see most here, and given his matchup against a porous Tampa Bay secondary and the absence of any running game to speak of, he is the best overall value at $7,500. He's $1,500 to $2,000 cheaper than the pay-up guys against the 32nd-ranked fantasy defense vs. QBs. We like him better if Ladd McConkey plays and would stack them, but if McConkey is out, Herbert still is a huge value and we can then insert Josh Palmer or Quentin Johnston as super-value receiver plays. We REALLY like Palmer if McConkey is out. His volume should be off the charts, while Johnston will be a boom or bust with big-play potential
The others worth considering in this price range are Tua Tagovailoa and Bo Nix. Both are solid choices, and Tua in particular has been very consistent the past four weeks, recording more than 22 points each time out with a high of 31.
Super Value Quarterbacks
These are guys to consider in big tournament formats: Bryce Young, Drake Maye and Will Levis.
Pay-up Running Backs
It's Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry as the two locks to be in most lineups at the $9,000-plus salary mark. For the reasons mentioned above because of the blowout potential of the Ravens-Giants matchup, we are going to use Barkly more often than Henry. Getting Henry in a lineup or two just in case he has a nuclear explosion is always worth a shot.
Value Volume Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard keeps getting the ball, and that's not changing this week against Dallas' awful run defense. The downside is that he's going to be owned by about half of our competitors this week. So while he will be in our cash-game lineups, we are going to rotate guys in big tournaments. The core play at this level is Chase Brown at $8,100. He's $600 more than Hubbard, but his recent use in the passing game plus his explosive running potential - with no backup of any substance challenging for carries - makes him a no-brainer. Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane, James Conner, Brian Robinson and Josh Jacobs are the players in the second tier of RB pricing that we will be getting into lineups this week.
Super Value Running Backs
Other than Hubbard, Rico Dowdle and Zach Charbonnet are the top values on the board this week. Dowdle will be very highly owned because Cowboys fans are everywhere and they assume he will roll vs. Carolina. They probably aren't wrong, but he won't be owned more than Charbonnet, so for that reason he's a better value. Both are worth playing in most lineups. If you want to punt and hope for 10 points from a cheaper player so you can add more studs to your lineup, then Jerome Ford and Jaleel McLaughlin are your guys.
Pay-Up Wide Receivers
While you almost never can go wrong paying for the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Cee Dee Lamb or AJ Brown in this spot, our pick for this week - duh - is Ja'Marr Chase. While he won't be every one of our lineups, when we pivot off of him we will be going to Tee Higgins instead of one of the players mentioned above and stacking the RB position. There simply are too many value options this week at WR, and either Chase or Higgins is almost assured to blow up.
Value Volume Wide Receivers
The names you surely have seen or heard all week are pretty much standard: Ladd McConkey, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Tyreek Hill, Higgins, Terry McLaurin and Adam Thielen. We concur with that line of thinking and will be rotating those guys in our lineups. We would like to add Brian Thomas Jr. and Khalil Shakir to that list as well. Again, instead of pivoting off one of them and going with a different pay-up Tier 1 receiver, just go with Chase or Higgins and add a one or two of the pivot options in the Super Value WR category below as necessary. Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson are very much worth rotating in lineups, too. We are very high on Wilson this week, but one of them should have a big game.
Super Value Wide Receivers
Here are your pivots. Start with Chase or Higgins and use a Value Volume WR or one of these guys in various lineups as a pivot option to one of the higher-priced, high-volume players mentioned above : Josh Palmer Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Devaughn Vele, Amari Cooper, Xaiver Legette, Jaylen Waddle, Quentin Johnston or Elijah Moore.
Pay-up Tight End
There is only one, and his name is Trey McBride. If you can afford him and want him, go for it and use a super-value player or two in other spots. He has guaranteed volume and value, so much so that he's worth considering as a FLEX play every week.
Value Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft
Jake Ferguson
Zach Ertz
Hunter Henry
Super Value Tight Ends
Stone Smartt
Brenton Strange
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