Updated following Chargers - Broncos TNF game
Below are our Week 16 NFL Power Rankings along with our weekly betting edges and recommended picks. Recommended picks are posted weekly as we make them available.
Part of our rankings process includes moving teams up and down in the initial phase each week based on game results, injuries and other information. We are trying to determine where teams rank as of today instead of where they might rank in a month or six weeks if circumstances change. For example, the Saints may have been previously undervalued with Derek Carr back at quarterback, but without him they drop to being one of the bottom teams in the entire league.
Once that part of the process is done, we run the relevant numbers through our algorithm that projects winners and totals then add the input of bookmakers and the sharp betting market. Finally, as the week progresses, we track the injury reports, sharp line moves and other breaking news and put each of the week's matchups through a rigorous set of rules and guidelines to get a composite number that is unaltered.
Advanced stats, coaches' in-game decision-making, recent form, depth after injuries and many other factors are considered before the final numbers are produced. We tweak our results throughout the week and update them in real time as game scores and new injuries flood in on Sundays. Our power rankings are not subjective. There are teams we feel may be overvalued or undervalued, but that can be valuable info when looking at point spreads and finding edges as the lines move throughout the week.
Our Week 16 NFL power rankings are below, and we feel that is important to understand that they are based on a formula and process, not on the opinion of any one person or group of people.
The numbers are the numbers, but the teams we think may be undervalued or overvalued are listed below the rankings along with games where we feel there might be a betting edge as of Thursday afternoon. The edges continued to be tweaked and updated until those games kickoff so check back with us daily.
The games where we see potential betting edges and this week's recommended picks also are listed below as well as some potential money line parlay and teaser legs. The rankings are where our process starts and how we begin to narrow down games as potential recommended All-Star or Superstar picks. All-Star Picks have a 60-percent or better win probability. Superstar Selections have a win probability of 70 percent or higher.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for NFL Week 16
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
TBD
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for NFL Week 16
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Rams money line -155 vs. Jets (65%) - WIN
Buccaneers money line -200 vs. Cowboys (64%) - LOSS
Week 16 StatLogic Sports NFL Power Rankings
Lions - 100.0
Eagles - 99.5
Bills - 99.0
Chiefs - 98.5
Ravens - 98.5
Vikings - 98.0
Packers - 98.0
Buccaneers - 97.0
Commanders - 96.5
Chargers - 96.0
Rams - 95.5
Steelers - 95.0
Texans - 94.5
Broncos - 94.5
Bengals - 94.5
Seahawks - 94.0
Dolphins - 93.5
Colts - 93.5
49ers 93.5
Falcons - 93.0
Cardinals 92.5
Cowboys - 92.0
Jets - 91.5
Bears 91.0
Panthers - 90.0
Patriots - 89.5
Saints - 89.5
Titans - 89.0
Browns - 89.0
Raiders - 88.5
Jaguars - 87.5
Giants - 86.5
Possibly Overvalued:
Rams, Colts
Possibly Undervalued:
Steelers
StatLogic Sports Week 16 NFL Betting Edges
These are NOT are recommended picks for this week, but as part of our process we determine which games have a potential betting edge for one side or the other or the total. Some of these games may evolve into recommended picks. Thus far, the games with edges have gone 61-46-5 before running them through our algorithm and rules. These can be edited and tweaked right up until game time Sunday.
Chiefs money line vs. Texans & UNDER 43 - WIN/LOSS
Browns at Bengals OVER 46 - LOSS
Panthers +5.5 vs. Cardinals - WIN
Patriots at Bills UNDER 47 - WIN
Eagles money line -210 at Commanders - LOSS
Rams at Jets UNDER 47.5 & higher 0 WIN
Vikings -2.5 at Seahawks & OVER 41.5 (money line at -3 or buy points) - WIN/WIN
Dolphins +2 vs. 49'ers - WIN
Jaguars +2.5 vs. Raiders - LOSS
Buccaneers money line -200 at Cowboys & OVER 47.5 - LOSS/WIN
Money Line Parlay/Tease Options
Lions - TEASE or MLP - WIN
Bucs - MLP - LOSS
Vikings - MLP - WIN
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