We’re going to keep it pretty simple today with the Week 18 NFL DFS Sunday main slate.
All week, everyone has talking about the players who are close to incentives, so everyone in the gambling community – and those of us who play DFS – is well of who they are. That’s certainly a good place to start, and a mix of those players definitely should be in our lineups.
Keep in mind, though, that the best way to win legit money in NFL DFS is to find the right surrounding pieces to support the pay-ups and chalk plays. Whether we are looking for the top chalk guys in cash games and surrounding them with the best lower-priced options or we want to pay up for superstars who might be lower-owned and find productive super-value players to fill the rest of our lineups, finding value always key.
In addition to the players with individual incentives to play for, there are several teams with something to play for who will be going all out to win. And there are teams who know their postseason fate – or are satisfied with whatever happens – that will be sitting their top players.
Teams with something at stake today that either must win or have indicated they will play to win are the Lions, Vikings, Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins, Commanders, Buccaneers and Falcons.
The Lions-Vikings over/under total in Vegas is by far the highest on the slate at 56.5, so those two quarterbacks along with players such as Jahmyr Gibbs, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jordan Addison, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and TJ Hockenson should be finding their way into our lineups. Remember that FanDuel includes the Sunday Night game in the main slate, while Draft Kings does not.
Many of the names that appear in this space as players we covet on pretty much a weekly basis will be missing at this week. But that means there will be a host of younger and lesser-known players who will be getting an opportunity to show what they can do for the future as well as some established veterans who may be playing for a future contract wherever they can get one. There will be desperate players looking for another shot and a new start next year.
And there are games and teams absolutely to avoid such as the Titans, who are rotating quarterbacks and other players, and Texans, who have no reason to play anyone. The Chiefs aren’t playing anyone of interest and are starting Carson Wentz at QB, so their receivers probably are out, but not running back Carson Steele.
On the surface, the same can be said for the Rams with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback while Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp will be watching from the sidelines. But if you know anything about Sean McVay, he loves a challenge and relishes the opportunity to outsmart the opposition and win games he shouldn’t. Remember what he did with castoff Baker Mayfield a few years back late in the season; he won with Mayfield in a miracle comeback and helped the former top draft pick rejuvenate his career.
McVay likely will look to do that today for Jimmy G and also mentioned that he’s excited to see rookie running back Blake Corum get a full workload. That means Corum is at the top of our RB list this week, while solid role-playing receivers such as Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson may be in for nice days (someone will get the Nacua and Kupp targets). Recently activated tight end Tyler Higbee might get quite a bit of work, too, as he works his way back into game shape for the postseason.
This is more of an information-based DFS week than it is an analytics-based week, so if you’ve followed the news about who is in and who is out, who is trying and who isn’t and who can make six figures or more with a few more catches, touchdowns or yards, should have a leg up.
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We will try to help you out by listing all the players we will be considering for lineups this week below.
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Quarterback
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff
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If you have two lineups, put one of them in each. Period. If you have more lineups, consider any of the players below.
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Pay-up Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels
Baker Mayfield
Value Volume Quarterbacks
Geno Smith
Justin Herbert
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Bargain Quarterbacks
Michael Penix
Jimmy Garoppolo
Joe Flacco
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Core Running Backs
Blake Corum, Bucky Irving
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Pay-up Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs
Bijan Robinson
Jonathan Taylor
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Value Volume Running Backs
JK Dobbins
Aaron Jones
Isaac Guarendo
Tony Pollard
Zach Charbonnet
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Bargain Running Backs
Ray Davis
Rachaad White
Michael Carter
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Super Bargain Running Backs
Carson Steele
Alexander Mattison
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Kenneth Gainwell
Samaje Perine
Chris Rodriguez
Dameon Pierce
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Pay-Up Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Mike Evans
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Core Value Volume Wide Receivers
Get one or more of these in every lineup:
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Brian Thomas, Jr.
Malike Nabors
Ladd McConkey
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Value Volume Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton
DK Metcalf
Terry McLaurin
Jordan Addison
Drake London
Juan Jennings
Adam Thielen
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Value Boom Potential Wide Receivers
Jameson Williams
Michael Pittman
Jalen McMillan
Bargain Wide Receivers
Jalen Nailor
Ricky Pearsall
Olamide Zacccheus
Marvin Mims
Quentin Johnston
Parker Washington
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
John Metchie
Mack Hollins
Dontayvion Wicks
Malik Washington
Demario Douglas/Kayshon Boutte
Dyami Brown
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Pay-up Tight Ends
Brock Bowers
Trey McBride
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Value Volume Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith
Sam Laporta
TJ Hockenson
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Super Value Tight Ends
Zach Ertz
Noah Gray
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Bargain Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee
Brenton Strange
Dawson Knox
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