A Look Back & an Intro to Our Hazmat List


By Gerry Love - SPM Fantasy Staff

CBSSports.com Photo

Week 4 for the National Football League is upon us, and at this point with more members of the Tennessee Titans’ organization reportedly testing positive for COVID-19, the first order of business is to wish them all a speedy recovery and hope that others will not be affected. Next, we can start worrying about whether there will be a Week 5 with the understanding that the health and safety of everyone involved is paramount.

The next order of business is to take a look back at our Week 3 value projections to see how we did and determine our candidates for the DO NOT TOUCH Hazmat List – as well as those who we will be moving to that list until further review.

A quick look at how we did overall last week in DFS shows how critical the selection of a value-priced defense that at least doesn’t hurt you can be. In many lineups we went with the Giants against a beat-up 49ers team that we figured would control the ball and win without putting up big numbers. We also banked on San Francisco back-up players making mistakes and turning the ball over a few times. The Giants netted us -2 points. When we had extra money to spend on the D, we looked at other options that helped us land in the money, but if we had done better job picking defenses it could have been a huge week.

That said, if the defense is what’s bringing us down, that means the meat of our lineups was generally solid. A look back at how our value picks did:

Best QB Value Week 3 Draft Kings

1. Ryan Tannehill – 12.74

2. Mitchell Trubisky – Benched with 12.62 was on the way to okay numbers

3. Ben Roethlisberger – 19.18

4. Tom Brady – 23.88

5. Aaron Rodgers – 24.52

6. Phillip Rivers – 12.68

7. Jared Goff – 28.24

8. Drew Brees – 23.52

9. Teddy Bridgewater – 14.60

10. Baker Mayfield – 14.34

Best QB Value Week 3 FanDuel

1. Ryan Tannehill – 12.74

2. Ben Roethlisberger – 19.18

3. Tom Brady – 23.88

4. Matthew Stafford – 18.50

5. Mitchell Trubisky - Benched with 12.62 was on the way to okay numbers

6. Cam Newton – 12.18

7. Aaron Rodgers – 24.52

8. Phillip Rivers – 12.68

9. Jared Goff – 28.248

10. Teddy Bridgewater – 14.60


Players moved to our Hazmat List:

Mitchell Trubisky

Phillip Rivers

Future Hazmat Candidates:

Baker Mayfield

Likely to be Too Expensive Going Forward

Aaron Rodgers

Five out of 10 scored between 18.5 and 28 points on both lists. Rodgers became too expensive to be a value pick on Draft Kings last week and figures to do the same this week on FD. Trubisky is done, a full-blown hazmat. Goff should continue to be a sneaky play along with Newton, Stafford and probably Brady. Others will be based on weekly pricing and matchups.

Best RB1 Value Week 3 Draft Kings

1. Jonathan Taylor – 13.2

2. Miles Sanders – 14.7

3. James Conner – 24.9

4. Austin Ekeler – 31.3

Best RB2/Flex Value Week 3 Draft Kings

1. Joe Mixon – 8.5

2. David Montgomery – 7.4

3. Kenyan Drake – 8.9

4. Devin Singletary – 16.1

5. Todd Gurley – 15.2

6. Melvin Gordon – 7.8

7. Josh Kelley – 5.2

8. Mark Ingram – 3.0

Best RB1 Flex Value Week 3 FanDuel

1. Jonathan Taylor – 13.2

2. Miles Sanders – 14.7

3. Derrick Henry – 27.0

4. Aaron Jones – 16.6

5. Alvin Kamara – 44.7

6. Chris Carson – 10.6

7. James Conner – 24.9

8. Austin Ekerler – 31.3

9. Josh Jacobs – 9.3

10. Nick Chubb – 24.0

Best RB2/Flex Value Week 3 FanDuel

1. David Montgomery – 7.4

2. Kenyan Drake – 8.9

3. Joe Mixon – 8.5

4. Devin Singletary – 16.1

5. Todd Gurley – 15.2

6. Melvin Gordon – 7.8

7. Kareem Hunt – 14.4

8. Josh Kelley – 5.2

9. Mark Ingram – 3.0

10. Leonard Fournette – 4.2

Value RB Flex Plays DK & FD

1. Jerick McKinnon

2. JK Dobbins

These are our super-value players that you can put at the Flex position for cheap while spending more at other spots. McKinnon was solid in that role. I can’t figure out what the Ravens are doing with Dobbins at this point.

Players moved to our Hazmat List:

Joe Mixon

Mark Ingram

Leonard Fournette

Future Hazmat Candidates:

David Montgomery

Kenyan Drake

Josh Kelley

Likely to be Too Expensive Going Forward

Derrick Henry

Alvin Kamara

Our RB1 picks were off the charts, especially when you consider we are going for value and not chalk. Our RB2 picks were just so-so, but if you managed to pair the right ones with our RB1 picks you should have been sitting pretty. For some reason many “experts” keep telling us to stay away from Austin Ekeler. Good, more for you and me. Hopefully that will continue so he doesn’t become too expensive. Dual threats who are guaranteed touches in the run game and targets in the passing game are invaluable.

Best WR1 Value Week 3 Draft Kings

1. DK Metcalf – 19.0

2. Terry McLaurin – 12.6

3. Tyler Lockett – 37.0

4. Amari Cooper – 17.6

5. JJ Smith-Schuster – 16.3

6. Allen Robinson – 28.4

Best WR2/W3/Flex Value Week 3 Draft Kings

1. Robert Woods – 21.4

2. Michael Gallup – 25.8

3. TY Hilton – 8.2

4. Diontae Johnson – 0.0

5. CeeDee Lamb – 11.6

Best WR 1 Value Week 3 FanDuel

1. DK Metcalf – 19.0

2. Terry McLaurin – 12.6

3. Tyler Lockett – 37.0

4. Amari Cooper – 17.6

5. JJ Smith-Schuster – 16.3

6. Stefon Diggs – 14.9

7. Calvin Ridley – 16.7

8. Allen Robinson – 28.4

9. Mike Evans – 14.2

10. Adam Thielen – 12.3

Best WR2/W3/Flex Value Week 3 FanDuel

1. Odell Beckham Jr. – 9.9

2. Michael Gallup – 25.8

3. Marquise Brown – 3.3

4. TY Hilton – 8.2

5. Robert Woods – 21.4

6. Julan Edelman – 4.2

7. Diontae Johnson – 0.0

8. Will Fuller – 15.4

9. CeeDee Lamb – 11.6

10. Darius Slayton – 6.3

Value WR Flex Plays DK & FD

1. Robbie Anderson – 10.5

2. Corey Davis – 11.9

3. Tyler Boyd – 22.5

4. Anthony Miller – 13.0

5. Russell Gage – 4.6

These are our super-value plays that you can use In the Flex, or even the WR3 position and then spend more on other positions. Picking players like Tyler Boyd as WR or Flex plays is how you get yourself in the big money. The others, minus Gage, all were decent picks for the price assuming that your spending in other spots led to big points.

Players moved to our Hazmat List:

Adam Thielen – Done with him; still valued the same as Diggs for no reason at all.

T.Y. Hilton – Needs to get back on track.

Odell Beckham Jr. – Tired of his act; he’s priced fairly but has one good game out of five or six, and Mayfield is all over the map.

Future Hazmat Candidates:

Darius Slayton

Likely to be Too Expensive Going Forward

Stefon Diggs

Allen Robinson

It was an okay week for our value picks at WR. We had some “boom” with Lockett, Robinson, Gallup and Woods and a few complete busts There were a lot of solid picks, too, especially for the price, but it’s the unexpected boom guys combined with the expected top performers who make you cash. The Cowboys’ and Seahawks’ receivers panned out well, except for Lamb – who was good for the price, but not great. Who knew that Cedrick Wilson would go off for 27.7. Finding the Justin Jefferson’s (30.2), Wilson’s and Allen Lazard’s (26.4) each week as value plays allow you to miss in some other spots and just be good in those positions and still cash in. Lockett and Woods are interesting and still sneaky plays each week. Lockett consistently is priced below D.K. Metcalf and Woods, for some reason is typically below Cooper Kupp. Always take Woods and Lockett if their teams have solid matchups over the others if the price is equal or better – and do this without hesitation.

Best TE Value Week 3 Draft Kings

1. Zach Ertz – 14.0

2. Jared Cook – 4. 1

3. Dallas Goedert – 1.7 before injury

4. Jonnu Smith – 11.1

5. Hunter Henry – 10.0

6. Hayden Hurst – 7.1

Best TE Value Week 3 FanDuel

1. Zach Ertz – 14.0

2. Tyler Higbee – 8.0

3. Dallas Goedert – 1.7

4. Jonnu Smith – 11.1

5. Hayden Hurst – 7.1

6. TJ Hockenson – 9.3

7. Noah Fant – 9.6

TE Value to Open Cap Space

1. Mo-Allie Cox – 14.0

2. Logan Thomas – 7.1

3. OJ Howard – 7.9

These are our super-value TE picks that we think have an upside at a great price and can be selected at either TE or Flex to allow you to spend much more on other positions. Getting a player like Cox in these positions is great and can help you win.

Players moved to our Hazmat List:

Hayden Hurst

Future Hazmat Candidates:

Jared Cook

Likely to be Too Expensive Going Forward

Zach Ertz - With Goedert out he and Sanders are Philly's only true offensive weapons. His price may rise.

The tight ends were not great to us, but the good news is that while you hope to be able to get 20 points out of your TE pick, only one TE (Jimmy Graham) went over the 20-point mark last week, and he had been an afterthought in the Bears’ offense until Nick Foles took over. Tyler Kroft is one we just never could have guessed. Ebron we had listed in previous weeks, so maybe now he’s getting in sync with Big Ben. Robert Tonyan is an intriguing player going forward as Cox. We still prefer stacking other positions and trying to find the cheapest hidden gem who you know will get a decent number of targets at TE even though statistically the average winning tight end is a priced in the mid-level range.

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