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Today we present some Week 3 college and NFL football games we are monitoring for possible early bets. Remember that the purpose of betting early is to find games for which there already may be an edge at the current number and to bet them now in hopes of getting a spread that is more advantageous for our side than the closing line.
Considerations we make when recommending early bets are initial line movements that occur when numbers are first posted (since that tends to indicate sharp or professional action on one team or the other), point spreads as determined by other models and analytics and later line movement based on public vs. respected money. Of course, additional game-related information is considered as well. Key numbers for football also are taken into consideration, with lines that cross over those key numbers (3, 6, 7, 10, etc.) being preferred over others.
As the line moves during the course of the week, it may end up at a level that makes it appealing based on the models we follow, opinions of known sharp bettors and those initial line moves. Those are the scenarios we seek.
Here are some games we are looking at this week for possible early wagers:
Florida State -2.5 or money line at Louisville
Most models have the the Seminoles winning in a tight one. The line has moved from pick toward -3. Either get it before it gets to 3, or ideally we prefer getting them on the money line sooner rather than later.
Syracuse +1.5 vs. Purdue
The Orange are a home dog, and the line moved a point in their direction immediately. As of today, a large majority of money and bets are on Purdue, but the line looks to be continuing to move toward Syracuse. That’s another positive indicator of sharps being on Syracuse. A consensus of models indicates a slight edge in this game for the home side, so we like the Orange at the current number or better and see them as a good money line bet as well. If you like Syracuse, we would make this play sooner rather than later before the value is taken out of the number. We would like to gather some more info before betting it, though.
Western Kentucky at Indiana Under 61.5 or better
This number appears to be moving higher as it is juiced to the over at 61.5. It opened at 60 but fell immediately to 58.5 before later starting to climb back. Hold off and see where it tops out but take the under at 61.5 or better. If it gets to 62 or 62.5 and the juice flips to the under, that’s when you want to get it.
Georgia -24 or better at South Carolina
We’ve seen some models indicating that Georgia should win this game by 27 or more points. The initial line was -26, illustrating that some sharper books were on the same wavelength, but sharp money dropped the number below the key number of 24 to 23 almost immediately. It’s inching back up now despite the vast majority of bets being on the Gamecocks. That indicates pros are likely pushing the number back toward Georgia even though the public is hammering South Carolina. If you like the Bulldogs, you might want to get them before it gets back to 24.5, but there is a chance it may dip again later in the week. No matter what, you want this one at -24 or better. Keep monitoring it.
Oklahoma -10.5 or better at Nebraska
What will the new-coach effect be on the Cornhuskers? Will it motivate them, or will they continue to fall apart? This line opened at -16 and immediately was dropped below the key number of -14 to -13.5 probably thanks to sharp wagers. It bounced early on to -14.5, indicating some possible respected buy back. Heavy betting since has taken it all the way down to -10.5 despite heavy public wagering on Oklahoma as the number reached 11. There are several models we trust that give the Sooners an edge of between 11 and 14 points. We will monitor this. If it looks to be heading back toward -11 we will take Oklahoma at 10.5, but here’s hoping it goes all the way to -10.
Auburn +3.5 vs. Penn State
Auburn has been a very strong home dog in recent years. The +3.5 number may not last long. Might be getting sharp buy back as this one opened at +3.
Michigan State +3.5 at Washington
This game opened at +2 and immediately was bet down to +1.5, indicated pro money on MSU. It has since drifted all the way back across +3 to +3.5, but is heading back the only way. Sharps liked MSU originally at +2 and now again at +3.5, so get it while you can. It may not be there long.
Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Miami
Sharp money seems to have moved this one from +5 to +5.5, and it's heading to 6. The Aggies may be playing for their coach's job, and based on what some of them are probably getting paid they are going to want him to stay. Money talks, and this is a group that has appeared to be motivated by something other than football thus far. Overall money and bets are slightly in favor of Miami, so this one could shift back down to -5, so we would hold off until there is an indication that it's heading to -6 for sure or it actually gets down to -5 before betting it.
USC -11.5 or -12 vs. Fresno State & under 73.5 or better
This contest opened at -12 and 72. Immediately it was bet to -13, showing sharp interest in the Trojans at -12, and 69, which indicates a lean toward the under at 72. At various books right now it is hovering at between -11.5 and -12.5 and between 73.5 and 74.5. If you can get USC at -11.5 take it. Monitor the total, too. If it starts to dip below 73.5 get it there. If it keeps going up wait until it gets to a number where the juice is favoring the under. Update: we bet under 73.5 Wednesday night.
We will continue to add to this list as more potential picks become apparent.
Potential early NFL selections can be found below:
Early NFL Week 2 Picks
Chargers +4.5 at Chiefs
The Chiefs had a strong opening-day performance, but they were playing against a short-handed and poorly prepared Cardinals team that was simply overmatched. Our power rankings and some other models have the Chargers as favorites, so even with the tremendous home-field advantage that the Arrowhead Stadium faithful provide, this should not be more than a +1.5 or +2 spread. We probably would have it as a pick or -0.5 in favor of Los Angeles. The line opened at +3 and has moved to +4.5 thanks to overwhelming public betting. There may be some sharp money mixed in, but when the money and bets are 75 percent in one side’s favor, that’s hard to tell. Right now, the +4.5 is juiced toward the Chargers despite the heavy betting on Kansas City, which indicates some sharp buy back. Get this number now. It should settle in at +3 or +2.5 by game time.
Bucs -2.5 at Saints
This line is heading toward -3 in a hurry with about 75 percent of bets and money on Tampa Bay. The Bucs were much more impressive than New Orleans in their Week 1 dismantling of Dallas, even if the offense wasn’t hitting on all cylinders. Tampa’s defense is strong enough to win with a bad offense, and this is not a bad offense. The Saints traditionally give the Bucs problems, and the home crowd will be jacked up. We would lay off at -3 or higher but have bet it at -2.5. Money line is an option, too.
More to come later in the week. Keep checking back!